経済成長
According to BCA Research’s Bank Credit Analyst service, events that have occurred since the onset of the pandemic have highlighted that the easy money era that prevailed from 2009-2021 is very likely over. The Fed will cut interest rates meaningfully…
The uptick in the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index to 102.0 pushed it above consensus estimates of 101.0 in November. Although this is a marginally positive signal, the prior month was revised down from 102.6 to 99.1. Moreover, the details of the…
According to BCA Research's European Investment Strategy service, given the defensive nature of Portuguese equities and the team's recession view, investors should favor the Portuguese bourse relative to Euro Area equities. The Portuguese equity market is…
Chinese industrial profits for October delivered a pessimistic signal on Monday as the annual growth rate eased to 2.7% y/y. While the latest update marks the third consecutive month of profit growth, it is a sharp slowdown from 17.2% y/y and 11.9% y/y in…
Today, we are sending you the BCA annual outlook for 2024. The report is an edited transcript of our recent conversation with Mr. X and his daughter, Ms. X, who are long-time BCA clients with whom we discuss the economic and financial market outlook for the next twelve months toward the end of each year.
Most developed market central banks have paused hiking interest rates. With interest-rate differentials having been the most important driver of currencies over the last two years or so, the focus might now shift to other factors. One such factor could be…
BCA Research's Commodity & Energy Strategy service concludes that lithium demand will rise over the long run. Lithium prices are continuing the selloff that began earlier this year, which was caused by strong production and mining capex increases. …
European flash PMI estimates for November sent a slightly less pessimistic signal on Thursday. The Eurozone composite PMI climbed by 0.6 points to 47.1, beating expectations of a more muted increase to 46.8. Notably, both the manufacturing and services…
Contrary to the prevalent belief in the global investment community, goods/merchandise inventories in the US and East Asia are rather elevated. Financial markets respond to final demand fluctuations, not inventory restocking. Global manufacturing/trade will continue contracting, even though the pace of contraction might moderate in the near run. We recommend that investors fade the current rally.
According to BCA Research's Emerging Markets Strategy service, the Chilean peso’s depreciation is already quite advanced. Over the next few months, the CLP will remain under downward pressure due to a likely global risk-off move. EM currencies will…