経済成長
Our US economic sentiment indicator – which is based on the difference between our equity valuation index and our bond valuation index – remains on an uptrend since its pandemic trough. Investors are pushing US stocks deeper in overvalued territory vis-à-vis…
On the surface, the US durable goods report delivered a negative surprise on Tuesday. The 6.1% m/m drop in new orders in January fell below expectations and the December figure was revised down to 0.3% m/m from 0.0% m/m. However, the details of the…
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, the odds of a “Minsky Moment” are low for the Chinese banking sector. Chinese banks, however, will continue facing cyclical and structural headwinds, including a dismal asset quality and profit…
Monday’s release of the Dallas Fed’s manufacturing index corroborates the signal from other regional Fed surveys that manufacturing conditions are picking up in the US. The headline Current General Business Activity index jumped from -27.4 to -11.3 in…
The FTSE 250 has been outperforming the FTSE 100 since late October 2023, with the former gaining 13.7% versus 3.9% in the case of the latter over this period. To the extent that UK small cap stocks are more exposed to domestic economic dynamics than…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, Germany will likely drag the overall Euro Area into contraction, even if, individually, other countries manage to avoid a recession. This slightly better economic outcome will nonetheless…
Outside of Germany, European growth fares better than many believe. Will this hidden resilience help the euro and push German yields higher?
Germany’s IFO Business Climate index ticked up 0.3 points to 85.5 in February, in line with consensus estimates. Expectations for the next 6 months explain the improvement in sentiment among German companies (up 0.6 points to 84.1), while their assessment of…
While efforts by policymakers to stabilize the stock market are buoying Chinese equities, domestic economic data remains soggy. Home prices declined further on both a monthly and annual basis in January, reinforcing the deflationary headwinds facing the…
In a recent Special Report, BCA’s Foreign Exchange Strategists update their long-term fair-value models for the real effective exchange rate. The model aims to capture deviations from the long-term drivers of a currency, such as relative productivity trends…