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The backdrop for corporate bonds is turning more risky after the spread tightening seen over the past few months in the US and Europe. A tour of our favorite corporate spread valuation metrics on both sides of the Atlantic suggests a worsening cyclical risk/reward tradeoff for both investment grade and high-yield bonds, especially in the US.

This week we present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for February 2023.

When does rising unemployment become a bigger problem than inflation? The Fed won't cut rates until that happens, probably thwarting market hopes of big cuts in 2H.

Fed Governor Lael Brainard delivered an important speech last week in which she laid out the intellectual justification for the Fed to soon pause its rate hike cycle. This week’s report reviews her arguments and explains how they inform our monetary policy and investment views.

This week we present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for January 2023.

We explore the eight major themes that will define economic and market trends for Europe next year.

In this report, we discuss our most important investment themes for global fixed income markets in 2023, and present our main investment recommendations based on those themes. Our broad conclusion: an environment of slowing global inflation, much weaker global growth and less hawkish central banks will be positive for global government bond returns, but problematic for growth-focused spread products like corporate bonds.

In this <i>Strategy Outlook</i>, we present the major investment themes and views we see playing out next year and beyond.

This week we present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for December 2022.

European inflation will decline through 2023, which will greatly help households and consumption. But can European inflation remain low after that?