景気循環
The S&P 500 closed at a fresh year-to-date high on Friday, breaking slightly above its late-July top. The brisk rally since late-October erased all the losses of the prior three months. However, the sector performance has shifted over the course of the…
In the monthly Daily Insights Survey we conducted over the past week, we asked about our readers’ outlook for the timing of the next US recession, the Fed, and concerns for the global economy in 2024. On the US economic outlook, nearly all respondents…
The Sentix Economic Index for the Eurozone continues to send a marginally positive signal. Its 1.8-point increase to -16.8 in December brings it to its highest level since May, albeit below expectations of a slightly more meaningful improvement to -15.6.…
The recent uptick in European economic data will not last beyond the next six months. How will European corporate credit perform in this context?
The Caixin manufacturing PMI delivered a positive surprise about the Chinese economy in November. The PMI unexpectedly showed manufacturing activity expanded last month, breaking above the 50 boom-bust line to a three-month high of 50.7 and beating…
The US ISM PMI sent a slightly negative signal about US manufacturing conditions in November. The headline index came in unchanged at 46.7, which suggests that the pace of contraction was more pronounced than consensus estimates expecting the PMI to increase…
Global financial markets delivered exceptional gains in November. Fixed income led in terms of abnormally large returns amid a shift in the market narrative in favor of significant Fed rate cuts in 2024. Importantly, the strong performance of US investment…
According to BCA Research’s Global Asset Allocation service, recession is still on track to begin in the first half of 2024. Is it the recession that never came? Certainly, the consensus thinks so. Soft landing is now the clear mainstream view. Investment…
Euro Area stocks have had a strong 2023, rising by 18.8% year-to-date, only slightly behind the 19.1% gain captured by US equities, and outperforming the ACWI’s 14.3% increase. In particular, the Italian index’s 35.3% year-to-date surge stands out among…
As expected, US personal income growth moderated from an upwardly revised 0.4% to 0.2% in October. However, disposable personal income growth experienced a less pronounced slowdown from 0.4% to 0.3% -- particularly in real terms which expanded for the first…