新興市場
Silver has shone this year, especially after it breached a multi-decade downward slopping trendline. Silver is a precious metal, but its heavy usage in industrial processes makes us wonder whether it is sending a bullish message on the global economy,…
We update our 12-month return projections for different US fixed income sectors in soft-landing and recession scenarios.
Germany’s economy has lagged that of the rest of Europe for nearly 10 years. So have German stocks. Investors are extrapolating these trends to bet on the country’s deindustrialization. Could Germany manage to beat dismal expectations?
While moving in the right direction, China’s latest stimulus measures are falling short of the mark to reflate the economy. The latest rumors extend this trend. News agencies reported discussions of a CNY 10 trillion bond issuance over three years. Six…
Global economic surprises have improved. Currently positive and improving in the US, they are rising from a low level in the Eurozone and China. Two explanations could explain this momentum. First, the recent easing in financial conditions may have boosted…
Savings must either flow into domestic investment, or abroad. Saving too much, with nowhere to funnel it, is breaking China’s economic model according to our Global Investment Strategy colleagues. As China's share of global manufacturing climbed to 30%,…
Our Emerging Markets Strategy team sees evidence of a “Trump trade” across markets, as the dollar strengthens, Treasury yields jump, and US small caps try to break out. However, the tactical and cyclical outcomes differ. While Trump 2.0 points to tariffs and…