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What To Expect When You’re Expecting A Recession

The signs of an approaching recession are starting to emerge. We will turn tactically defensive once they all fall into place.

2 年 2 年間 ago

FICC

Assessing The State Of Corporate Balance Sheets

特別レポート

Nonfinancial corporate balance sheets are generally in good shape, but there are signs of deterioration at the bottom-end of the credit spectrum. We present evidence showing that credit deterioration at the bottom-end of the credit spectrum has a habit of migrating upwards.

2 年 2 年間 ago

Bonds

Essentials

UK Retail Sales Plummet In April, Despite Accelerating Growth Momentum

UK retail sales plunged 2.3% m/m in April from a downwardly revised 0.2% m/m contraction in March, significantly undershooting expectations of a 0.5% m/m decline. Household goods as well as clothing and footwear stores led the shortfall. Retailers have…

2 年 2 年間 ago

Essentials

RBNZ: The Next Dove?

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept interest rates on hold at this week’s monetary policy meeting, in line with expectations. However, there were three new notes from its monetary policy statement that will likely affect how it approaches future…

2 年 2 年間 ago

Essentials

Sticky Wages Won't Derail June ECB Cut

Negotiated wages rose 4.7% y/y in Q1, from 4.5% y/y in Q4 in the Eurozone. Meanwhile, preliminary estimates for the Eurozone Composite PMI surprised to the upside in May. Although wage growth is the main driver of services inflation and Euro Area economic…

2 年 2 年間 ago

FICC

New Zealand: The Rising Case For A Rate Cut

In this Insight, we revisit our "higher for longer" theme for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, in light of the latest central bank meeting. In conclusion, we are inching towards a more dovish RBNZ ahead. Ergo, we recommend some fixed income and currency trades.

2 年 2 年間 ago

Currencies Bonds

Essentials

Hot UK CPI Pushes Back On Summer Rate Cut

The UK CPI release surprised markets to the upside across the board on Wednesday. Headline CPI increased 2.3% year-on-year, above expectations of 2.1%. Core surprised to the upside as well, moderating from 4.2% to 3.9%y/y, less than the moderation embedded in…

2 年 2 年間 ago

Essentials

Near-term Rangebound Bund, But Cyclically Bullish

According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the domestic picture indicates that Bund yields will stay rangebound over the next few months due to the tug-of-war between bond bullish and bond bearish forces in Europe. For now, the…

2 年 2 年間 ago

Essentials

The BoC Will Cut Rates More Aggressively Than The Fed

According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, the BoC should have sufficient evidence of Canadian disinflation to cut rates this summer. The market is pricing in a similar amount of rate cuts for the BoC and the Fed over the next 12 months.…

2 年 2 年間 ago

FICC

Digging Into EM Sovereigns

We dig into the USD-denominated Emerging Market Sovereign Index to see which credit tiers and countries offer value relative to US Credit.

2 年 2 年間 ago

Bonds

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