先進国
The Federal Reserve has a target inflation of 2%. But what level of inflation does the American public actually prefer? A recent NBER paper titled “Inflation Preferences” by Afrouzi, Dietrich, Myrseth, Priftis, and Schoenle surveyed one thousand…
The cyclical outlook is gloomy for EUR/USD. We subscribe to neither the soft-landing nor the no-landing view and expect a recession to occur in late 2024/early 2025. The pro-cyclical euro would suffer in a global downturn while a recession would support the…
Some thoughts on this morning’s employment report and recent trends in US economic data.
Investors should prepare for economic data to weaken even as policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk skyrocket ahead of the US election.
The preliminary nonfarm labor productivity estimate increased by an annualized 0.3% in Q1, below both the previous quarter’s 3.5% rate and expectations of 0.5%. Meanwhile unit labor costs increased by 4.7% annualized in Q1, a sharp acceleration from 0.4% in…
The Fed left the policy rate unchanged following its May FOMC meeting. It also announced it would slow the pace of quantitative tightening starting on June 1, from the current $60 billion per month to $25 billion per month for Treasuries redemptions, while…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, US and Euro Area growth will likely converge in the next 12 months. Fiscal policy differences were the most visible headwind to Eurozone growth last year. The IMF estimates that the…
Updated views on US Treasury yields and the dollar following today’s FOMC meeting.
After briefly breaking a 16-month contraction streak, the ISM Manufacturing PMI dipped back below the 50.0 boom-bust line in April. It decreased from 50.3 to 49.2, disappointing expectations of 50.0. Notably, measures of domestic and foreign demand both…
The Conference Board’s gauge of consumer confidence largely disappointed in April. 3.9- and 7.6-point decreases in the Present Situation and Expectations subcomponents, respectively, drove the overall index to a 22-month low of 97.0 in April. This third…