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The FTSE 250 has been outperforming the FTSE 100 since late October 2023, with the former gaining 13.7% versus 3.9% in the case of the latter over this period. To the extent that UK small cap stocks are more exposed to domestic economic dynamics than…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, Germany will likely drag the overall Euro Area into contraction, even if, individually, other countries manage to avoid a recession. This slightly better economic outcome will nonetheless…
Germany’s IFO Business Climate index ticked up 0.3 points to 85.5 in February, in line with consensus estimates. Expectations for the next 6 months explain the improvement in sentiment among German companies (up 0.6 points to 84.1), while their assessment of…
The messaging from the minutes of the ECB’s January meeting was similar to the Fed. Although Governing Council members noted that “for the first time in many meetings, the risks to reaching the inflation target were seen as broadly balanced or at least…
Nvidia’s blowout Q4 2023 earnings results and bullish guidance catalyzed a rally in global stocks that pushed the S&P 500, Europe’s Stoxx 600, and Japanese Nikkei to record highs on Thursday. The S&P 500 is already expensive. It is true that Big…
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, European political risk is turning up again. Increased European political risk is not because of the European parliamentary elections, which will see right-wing populist parties perform well but…
While 2024 will see various election risks, global geopolitical uncertainty is driven by the US election and its struggle with Russia, China, and Iran. The stock market can manage local domestic political risk. But it will correct upon a major outbreak of geopolitical uncertainty.
The stronger-than-anticipated acceleration in Sweden’s headline CPI inflation is unlikely to derail the Riksbank’s plan to pivot to policy easing this year. In particular, base effects from lower energy prices a year ago are behind the 1-point increase in…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, European tech stocks could outperform their US counterparts in the last leg of the rally. The tech sector is in a bubble in advanced economies. While it is logical to expect a pronounced…
Signs that we are entering the last phase of a bubble are building up. Can European equities benefit from a new tech mania?