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According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the money sloshing around the financial system from pandemic-era stimulus measures disconnects near-term prospects for growth from risk asset prices. As a result, we are witnessing an odd…
Sentiment among German companies stalled in May, after having firmed for 3 consecutive months. The IFO Business Climate came in at 89.3, unchanged from April, disappointing expectations of further strengthening to 90.4. Although respondents’ assessment of…
Looking at economic activity, global monetary policy seems restrictive, however, the behavior of financial markets tells a different story. What gives?
Negotiated wages rose 4.7% y/y in Q1, from 4.5% y/y in Q4 in the Eurozone. Meanwhile, preliminary estimates for the Eurozone Composite PMI surprised to the upside in May. Although wage growth is the main driver of services inflation and Euro Area economic…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the domestic picture indicates that Bund yields will stay rangebound over the next few months due to the tug-of-war between bond bullish and bond bearish forces in Europe. For now, the…
Investor and business sentiment continues to improve in the Eurozone. The ZEW Expectations series for the Eurozone (+3.1 to 47 in May) and Germany (+4.2 to 47.1, above expectations) strengthened to 27-month highs. Moreover, the spread between the expectations…
German Bunds have cheapened considerably, and the ECB is about to start cutting rates. Does this combination guarantee immediate profits from buying these bonds?
European retail sales were stronger-than-expected in March. They grew by 0.7% y/y from an upwardly revised 0.5% contraction in February, upending expectations that they would continue to decline. Improved sales in food products were the main drivers,…
The final estimates of Spain's and France’s services PMIs were revised upwards of expectations in April, increasing from 56.1 to 56.2 and from 50.5 to 51.3 respectively. The services European harmonized PMI also increased from 52.9 to a higher-than-expected…