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特別レポート

We are introducing a new set of fair value models for currencies. On a cyclical basis, the dollar is expensive. However, this is not enough of a reason to expect an imminent fall in the greenback. The yen is extremely cheap, and its fair value is rising on the back of a positive terms-of-trade shock. The yuan is fairly valued. Most commodity currencies are not yet cheap.

The remarkable admission by OPEC's secretary-general, Salem el-Badri, earlier this week that with "any increase in (oil's) price, shale will come immediately and cover any reduction" in output only hints at the larger impact of light-tight-oil (LTO) going forward.

特別レポート

This month's Special Report reviews the main factors driving the "lower for longer" bond yield view. A key finding is that the demographically-driven portion of the expansion in world capital spending has come to a virtual standstill, representing a major hit to underlying demand growth.

This month's Special Report reviews the main factors driving the "lower for longer" bond yield view. A key finding is that the demographically-driven portion of the expansion in world capital spending has come to a virtual standstill, representing a major hit to underlying demand growth.

The deeply negative momentum in oil prices is fading, setting up the possibility of a counter-trend rebound in global inflation expectations and perhaps even the beaten-up U.S. High-Yield bond market.

Markets see long-term global growth prospects as having deteriorated materially, with policymakers unwilling or unable to do much about it. Meanwhile, recent economic data - U.S. notably - hasn't been that bad. A divergence between what matters to Wall Street versus Main Street explains the disconnect. Accelerating wage growth, lower commodity prices, and cheaper rates are positives for households - but not for many Wall Street sectors. Stay neutral global equities. T-bonds are a "hold" for now. The dollar's selloff is overdone.

The previous Insight showed that semiconductor top-line growth remains under siege. Worse, there appears to have been little effort to realign cost structures to slower sales. The latter will become even more critical in the coming quarters, because pricing pressures are set to intensify. Our global semi inventory proxy is accelerating. Slowing demand has not been met with a sufficient output reduction to rebalance the market. Utilization rates are hitting new lows, and Taiwan export prices have plunged. These trends are a significant pricing power threat, and will compound profit margin pressures. We continue to recommend a high conviction underweight. The ticker symbols for the stocks in this index are: INTC, TXN, AVGO, MU, ADI, SWKS, LLTC, XLNX, NVDA, MCHP, QRVO, FSLR.

Semiconductor stocks finished last year on a strong note, supported by a surge in M&A and hopes that low oil prices would spur an increase in consumer spending, particularly on electronics. While the latter has improved, the M&A backdrop is becoming more hostile as the cost and access to capital become more restrictive. We put this group on our high-conviction underweight list to reflect our concern that once M&A euphoria faded, a renewed focus on fundamental profit drivers would trigger a de-rating. Apart from better spending on electronics, the data continues to support our bearish call. Global semi sales are shrinking, with key producing countries like Korea and Taiwan suffering from a steep export contraction. That implies heightened liquidation pressures, which will undermine profit margins. Worse, semiconductor companies have been slow to downsize despite threats to top-line growth, adding to profit margin pressures, please see the next Insight. The ticker symbols for the stocks in this index are: INTC, TXN, AVGO, MU, ADI, SWKS, LLTC, XLNX, NVDA, MCHP, QRVO, FSLR.