インフレーション/デフレーション
In this special report, we discuss whether the economic conditions necessary for a stronger yen (and higher JGB yields) will materialize over the next 12-to-18 months.
Despite a decline from 7.9% to 6.8% in July, the UK’s headline CPI surprised to the upside. The slowdown in headline CPI mostly reflects the deceleration in the annual inflation for housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels, which has slowed to 6.8%…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the earnings outlook of Eurozone equities will continue to deteriorate over the coming two quarters despite the improvement in real economic activity. Earnings and revenue growth are…
The selloff in US Treasuries has accelerated in recent weeks and the 10-year US Treasury yield is quickly approaching the cyclical peak of 4.25% that was set last October. While momentum is certainly on the side of the bond bears, our US Bond team doesn’t see…
Inspired by a client’s questions, we examine the rationale behind the implementation of the trailing stop governing our near-term asset allocation recommendations.
European real GDP growth is stabilizing, so why would European equities continue to trade sideways for the remainder of the year? The answer lies with nominal growth and its impact on earnings.
Chinese credit and money data fell significantly below expectations in July. The CNY 0.53 trillion increase in aggregate social financing marks a significant slowdown from CNY 4.22 trillion in June and came in significantly below expectations of CNY 1.10…
Thursday’s US CPI release showed that the disinflation trend remains intact with the monthly print remaining soft at 0.2% m/m, slightly lower than expected. The SPY initially rallied on the downside inflation surprise but quickly reversed its gains…
The preliminary release of the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment survey shows US households’ 1-year ahead inflation expectations unexpectedly ticked down from 3.4% to 3.3% in August, surprising consensus estimates of an increase to 3.5%. Similarly,…
While the July US CPI release provided a positive signal that the disinflationary trend remains intact, a key question going forward is how much more scope is there for this process to run. One way to answer this question is by assessing the progress in…