アメリカ合衆国
BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service concludes that in the near-term (3-months), investors should favor bond sectors with low exposure to both rate risk and credit risk such as T-bills and agency bonds. One of the traditional relationships that fixed…
The New York Fed’s Empire State Survey delivered a positive signal about US manufacturing activity in April. The headline general business conditions index jumped 35.4 points to 10.8, unexpectedly crossing into positive territory for the first time since…
Our US Bond Strategists expect the Fed to deliver one last 25 basis point rate hike at its next FOMC meeting on May 2-3 before an extended pause. Given that rate cuts are currently priced in for 2023, the implication for US bond investors is that they should…
BCA Research’s US Equity Strategy service upgraded Growth to overweight and downgrade Value to underweight on a tactical investment horizon. Many growth stocks have recently disappointed investors as their sales and earnings growth is slowing. Yet,…
This report looks at the relationship between rate risk and credit risk and how it has changed over time. It also makes the case for favoring agency MBS within an underweight allocation to US spread product.
The YTD market rally was driven by outperformance of high-quality growth stocks which offer protection in uncertain times. As growth continues to slow, high-quality growth stocks should continue to do well. Hence, we are moving to overweight Growth vs. Value.
US retail sales delivered a negative signal about consumer demand in March. Overall retail sales fell by the most since November, with the 1% m/m drop coming in below expectations of a 0.5% m/m decline following February’s 0.2% m/m decrease. The monthly…
Data released over the past week show a resurgence in short-term US consumer inflation expectations. The University of Michigan Consumer Survey’s measure of year-ahead expectations jumped by 1 percentage point to a 5-month high of 4.6% in April. Similarly,…
“Bad news is good news” has emerged as the dominant market narrative over the past month. The early-March bank turmoil caused investors to raise their expectations of a Fed pivot to cutting interest rates in H2 in response to a deteriorating economic outlook.…
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, if we really are on the steep side of the aggregate supply curve, then falling demand will largely drive down inflation without driving down employment. Many investors and market commentators…