アメリカ合衆国

Global Small Caps: Value Versus The Cycle

Global small cap stocks have underperformed large caps by roughly 7% since the beginning of March, in response to concerns about the global banking system. Smaller firms are generally less able to access funding through capital markets, and thus are more…

3 年 3 年間 ago

Essentials

US Defensives Are Gaining Ground

The S&P 500 is broadly unchanged from where it was at the end of Q1. It ended the day on Wednesday 0.5% below its level on the last day of March. However, the calm surface conceals some subterranean activity. Specifically, a selloff across cyclical…

3 年 3 年間 ago

CoreMacro

The Fed Must Avoid The Mistakes Of 1970, 1974, And 1980

As the Fed meets today, we explain what it did wrong in 1970, 1974, and 1980 that prevented inflation from being exorcised, and the lessons for 2023-24. Plus, we identify a currency cross that could rebound in the next year.

3 年 3 年間 ago

Essentials

JOLTS Signals Cooling US Labor Market

The JOLTS survey for March showed a continued softening of the US labor market. Job openings fell from 9.97 million to 9.59 million – below expectations of a more muted decline to 9.74 million. While job openings remain historically elevated, the March update…

3 年 3 年間 ago

Essentials

First Republic Is Gone, But Bank Concerns Remain

First Republic (FRC) became the third large-cap bank to fold when regulators seized it over the weekend. Investors took the news in stride on Monday, but several large- and mid-cap regional banks sold off sharply on Tuesday. Our US Investment Strategy…

3 年 3 年間 ago

Essentials

A Favorable Macroeconomic Backdrop For Big Pharma

According to BCA Research’s US Equity Strategy and US Political Strategy services, the macro backdrop is favorable for Pharma. as it tends to outperform the market during the slowdown and contraction stages of the business cycle. Q1-2023 GDP came in weaker…

3 年 3 年間 ago

Essentials

US PMIs Show Goods Inflation Accelerating In April

The April update of the ISM PMI continues to indicate that the US manufacturing sector is weak. Although the headline index increased 0.8 points to 47.1, it remains below 50 in contraction territory and near March’s 22-month low of 46.3. Two of the three…

3 年 3 年間 ago

CoreMacro

Expectations Of A US Dollar Demise Are Premature

The risk-reward of the US dollar is currently positive. If a US recession is not imminent, then US bond yields will move higher, thus supporting the greenback. If the US enters a recession soon, the US dollar will benefit because it is counter-cyclical. Besides, the US dollar has not been as weak as the DXY index suggests.

3 年 3 年間 ago

Emerging Markets

Portfolio

Monthly Portfolio Update: A Two-Speed Economy

Pent-up demand for services is keeping the global economy going, but we still expect recession over the next 12 months. Investors should keep a cautious portfolio stance.

3 年 3 年間 ago

FICC

The End Of The Tightening Cycle

This week we present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for May 2023.

3 年 3 年間 ago

Bonds

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