アメリカ合衆国
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, volatility will remain the key dynamic in oil markets in the aftermath of the surprise Hamas attacks against Israel on October 7. Everything depends on whether Israeli and US intelligence conclude…
Households’ excess pandemic savings will eventually run out, but we continue to disagree with the widespread view that they’re already gone or entirely in the hands of the wealthy. Consumers’ demise continues to be greatly exaggerated.
The market has been held hostage by surging rates. Zombie companies are “alive” and are multiplying – they are highly sensitive to surging borrowing costs. Underweight Utilities to reduce portfolio duration. Maintain neutral positioning of Basic Materials but take a granular approach to allocations within the sector.
The US Nonfarm Payroll report delivered a strong positive surprise about employment growth in September. Job gains accelerated from 187 thousand to 336 thousand – significantly above expectations of a slight decline to 170 thousand. In addition, the increase…
According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, the odds of a US government shutdown are 50/50 and will go higher if Democrats harden their demands or if Republicans pick a populist speaker. The next deadline to fund the government is November…
An update to our US bond strategy following this morning’s employment report.
Oil prices are having a tough start to Q4. The price of brent has collapsed by 13% over the past week, with the bulk of the selloff occurring on Wednesday and continuing into Thursday. Brent now stands below $85/bbl. There are multiple suspects behind the…
The Fed’s ‘Sahm rule’ real-time recession indicator signals a US recession when the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate rises by 0.50 percent from its low during the previous 12 months. But one shortfall of using the headline unemployment…
As expected, the US ISM PMI showed service sector activity slowing in September. The Services ISM declined from 54.5 to 53.6, broadly in line with expectations of 53.5. Although the level of the headline index indicates that service sector growth remains…
BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service recommends a barbelled allocation across the Treasury curve. The Treasury curve bear-steepened in September. The 2-year/10-year Treasury slope steepened 32 bps on the month and currently sits at -43 bps. The…