アメリカ合衆国

A Plausible Path Back To 2% Inflation: Revisiting Our TIPS Golden Rule

特別レポート

This week’s Special report revisits our TIPS Golden Rule. We provide a 12-month inflation forecast and discuss how it impacts our TIPS view.

2 年 2 年間 ago

Bonds

CoreMacro

The ‘Hidden’ World Recession Of 2022 And Why It Matters Today

The latest ‘nowcast’ for world economic growth in the fourth quarter has plunged to just 1.2 percent, marking the cusp of another world recession. One important implication is that expectations for oil demand growth and industrial metal demand growth are way too optimistic.

2 年 2 年間 ago

Essentials

Soft US Inflation Cements The Fed's Pause

US Treasury yields fell sharply following yesterday’s soft October CPI report, and investors have now officially priced out all remaining rate hikes from the yield curve. In fact, the fed funds futures curve is priced for a 25 basis point rate cut by next…

2 年 2 年間 ago

Essentials

US Small Businesses Are Concerned

To the extent that US small businesses are typically more exposed to domestic economic conditions than larger firms, results of the NFIB Small Business Economic Trends survey are instructive. One important trend is that the October survey results…

2 年 2 年間 ago

Essentials

On The Outlook For The Greenback

The DXY collapsed to a 2 ½ month low on Tuesday following the softer than anticipated CPI inflation release which prompted investors to bring forward their Fed rate cut expectations (see The Numbers). This marks an acceleration of a budding downtrend since…

2 年 2 年間 ago

FICC

The End Of Fed Tightening Is Now Consensus

Our thoughts on this morning’s CPI print and the bond market’s reaction.

2 年 2 年間 ago

Bonds

Essentials

Don't Overrate Potential Near-Term Improvement In US-China Relations

Investors should not get their hopes up about this week’s US-China summit. Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Joe Biden will meet on the sidelines of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in San Francisco on November 15. The two…

2 年 2 年間 ago

Essentials

Treasury Yields And The Relative Performance Of Cyclical Equities

Our equally weighted global cyclical equity index has outperformed equally weighted defensives for most of this year. By October 17, this outperformance stood at about 12.6%. This outperformance is consistent with US Treasury market dynamics. The relative…

2 年 2 年間 ago

Essentials

Reasons For A Later Recession Start Date

BCA Research's Global Investment Strategy service assigns 25% odds of the recession starting in 2025 or later.  Our colleagues continue to think that the US will succumb to a recession in 2024, probably in the second half of the year. They see the…

2 年 2 年間 ago

Equities

Recap Of Q3 Earnings: Looking Ahead

Q3 earnings commentary has been broadly positive, despite intensifying macro headwinds. Going forward, a negative growth outlook and geopolitical risks, are a threat to buoyant earnings expectations. We project that earnings growth for 2024 will move lower than currently projected - a negative for equities. This Santa Claus rally is unlikely to be the start of a new bull market.

2 年 2 年間 ago

US Equities

アメリカ合衆国

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