Sorry, you need to enable JavaScript to visit this website.
Saltar al contenido principal
Saltar al contenido principal

Zona Euro

Our Counterpoint service argues that it is not enough that inflation stabilizes at 3 percent for inflation expectations to be anchored and central banks must make inflation undershoot 2 percent for some time to prevent a repeat of the 1970s. The team argues…
Has the yield curve lost its ability to “predict” recessions? The widely-followed 2-year/10-year US Treasury curve now sits at -100bps, but it has been inverted since April 2022. Investors have seemingly been on “recession watch” ever since, even though the…
Informe especial

This week’s Special Report updates our US default rate forecast and considers whether corporate bond spreads offer value given the trend in credit fundamentals. We also consider the relative value proposition between investment grade and high-yield credit and between European and US corporate bonds.

In this Insight, we discuss the currency and bond market implications of last week’s ECB and Bank of Japan policy meetings. The conclusion: the ECB is on a path to an overly hawkish policy mistake, while the Bank of Japan’s dovish stance is growing more unsustainable.

According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service Eurozone inflation likely to diminish further. First, policy is tight. The impact on leading economic variables is already visible, with M1 collapsing, credit demand plunging, credit standards…
Informe especial

The Eurozone just experienced two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction. For the remainder of the year, can growth pick up or will the ECB decimate activity?

As expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) delivered a 25bps rate hike on Thursday, raising the policy rate to 3.5% — the highest since August 2001. Moreover, the central bank maintained a hawkish bias, signaling that further rate hikes are likely in July…
The message from the ZEW economic research institute’s June survey was mixed. On the one hand, the German Indicator of Economic Sentiment unexpectedly ticked up from -10.7 to -8.5. While the negative reading indicates that the pessimists continue to outnumber…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the Dutch market will be the main European beneficiary of expanding spending on AI. The crucial factor constraining the deployment and expansion of AI is its voracious appetite for computing…

The AI revolution is having a large impact on many US stocks but European equities have not enjoyed the same benefits. Is Europe really devoid of AI plays?