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Este Strategy Insight presenta nuestra opinión sobre el recorte de tipos de interés anunciado hoy por el Bank of England, así como sobre el presupuesto anunciado por el gobierno del Reino Unido la semana pasada.
Our thoughts on the bond market’s reaction to the election and this afternoon’s FOMC meeting.
The Bank of England cut its policy rate in line with expectations to 4.75%, but it signaled a more gradual pace of cuts as it increased its inflation forecast following last week’s budget. A 25 bps cut with hawkish guidance strikes the balance the BoE needed.…
The bond market had long anticipated a Trump 2.0 administration, but bond yields still spiked as a Trump victory materialized. What’s the path ahead for US rates? Our US bond strategists believe 10-year yields can go up further in the near-term, but will soon…
The post-COVID inflation pushed bond yields higher, turning the stock-bond yield correlation negative and taking away bonds’ hedging properties. The relationship normalized this summer as economic data surprised negatively, pushing equities and yields lower.…
El día de las elecciones por fin ha llegado. No, este correo no contiene una previsión definitiva ni una "bala de plata". Solo nuestro pronóstico a largo plazo sobre cómo la elección, gane quien gane, afectará a los mercados.
The October US jobs report had mixed signals and was skewed by hurricanes and industrial strikes. Unemployment met expectations by staying unchanged at 4.1%, although it rose nearly 0.1 percentage point on an unrounded basis. Nonfarm payrolls were flat with…
China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI rebounded one point in October to 50.3. This was in line with the NBS PMIs from earlier this week, which also showed a modest rebound. We are looking for a turning point in China as the government unrolls stimulus measures.…
The October ISM Manufacturing missed expectations, decreasing to 46.5 from 47.2 in September. The Prices Paid component jumped, rising to 54.8 from 48.3 the month prior. New Orders showed a small upside surprise at 47.1, up 1 point on the month, pushing the…
EM credit markets have recently defied the selloffs in EM equities, currencies, local currency bonds, and commodities. According to our Emerging Markets Strategy colleagues, such a decoupling is unusual. A potential Trump re-election could weigh heavily on EM…