Monetario

Some thoughts on this week’s bear-steepening of the Treasury curve and this morning’s employment report.

In this insight, we assess the prospect of the Swiss franc over the next six months.

La Corte Suprema es generadora de certidumbre más que de incertidumbre para los mercados estadounidenses. En caso de una crisis constitucional, una intervención judicial probablemente reducirá la volatilidad.

Collapsed complexity, plus the unwinding of favourable base effects and favourable seasonal adjustments to the inflation and jobs numbers, all pose a danger to the Goldilocks market.

History suggests that a “soft landing” is highly unlikely after such an aggressive Fed tightening cycle. The rally could continue for a little longer but, on the 12-month horizon, market risks are very skewed to the downside.

The trajectory of China’s infrastructure investment in 2023H2 will be like what occurred in 2021H2. Growth will likely drop from the current nominal 10% to 0-2% in the next six months. China will continue promoting environmentally friendly infrastructure projects that may prevent a contraction in infrastructure investment in 2023H2.