Europa del Este y Asia Central

An analysis on Ukraine is available below.   Highlights A number of liquidity and technical reasons have led us to give benefit of the doubt to the bullish market action and chase this EM rally. We still doubt that the US-China trade truce alone is sufficient to propel a cyclical recovery in global trade and manufacturing. However, it seems the market is operating on a “buy now, ask questions later” principle. Therefore, we are initiating a long position in the EM equity index as of today. Despite the potential for higher EM share prices in absolute terms, we are still reluctant to upgrade EM versus DM stocks. The basis is that EM corporate profits will continue lagging those in DM. Feature We could be in for a replay of the 2012-2014 DM equity rally, where EM stocks rebounded in absolute terms but massively underperformed DM on a relative basis. Chart I-1EM Share Prices: In Absolute Terms And Relative To DM EM share prices have spiked on the announcement of a trade truce between the US and China. As a result, our buy stop at 1075 on the EM MSCI Equity Index has been triggered, and we are initiating a long position in EM stocks as of today (Chart I-1, top panel). That said, we are still reluctant to upgrade EM versus DM stocks. Regardless of the direction of the market (bull, bear or sideways), EM share prices will likely underperform the global equity benchmark. As we discussed in our report, the primary risk to our view has been that EM share prices get pulled higher as a result of rallying DM markets. Nevertheless, our fundamental assessment remains that EM corporate profits will lag those in DM, heralding EM relative equity underperformance. In fact, we could be in a replay of the 2012-2014 DM equity rally where EM stocks massively underperformed (Chart I-1, bottom panel), as we elaborated in our November 28 report. In this report, we review the indicators that support a bullish stance, the ones that are inconclusive and those that are not confirming the current rally in China-plays in general and EM risk assets in particular. Bullish Liquidity And Technical Settings The following points have led us to give benefit of the doubt to recent market action and to chase this rally: The global liquidity backdrop appears to be conducive for higher share prices. Global narrow and broad money growth have accelerated (Chart I-2). That said, a caveat is in order: These money measures do not always strongly correlate with both global share prices and the global business cycle. There are numerous times when they gave a false signal or were too early or late at turning points. Chart I-2Global Narrow And Broad Money: A Useful But Not Always Reliable Indicator   The technical profile of EM equities is rather bullish. As shown on the top panel of Chart I-1 on page 1, EM share prices have found a support at their six-year moving average. When a market fails to break down below its long-term technical support line, odds are that a major bottom has been reached, and the path of the least resistance is up. The reason we look at these long-term (multi-year) moving averages is because they have historically worked very well for key markets like the S&P 500 and 10-year US Treasury bond yields (Chart I-3A & I-3B). Chart I-3AThe Reason Why We Use Multi-Year Moving Averages Chart I-3BThe Reason Why We Use Multi-Year Moving Averages   As another positive development, both EM share prices in local currency terms and the EM equity total return index in US dollar terms have bounced from their three-year moving averages (Chart I-4). Chart I-4A Bullish Chart Formation For EM Equities In addition, when a market does not drop below its previous top, this creates a bullish chart configuration (Chart I-4). This seems to be the case with EM share prices currently. Bottom Line: A number of liquidity and technical reasons have led us to give benefit of the doubt to the bullish market action and to chase this rally. Inconclusive Indicators It is rare that all types of indicators – directional market, business cycle, valuation and technical – all line up together to convey the same investment recommendation. Below we present the market indicators and signals that we have been watching to get confirmation of sustainability in the bull market in EM risk assets, commodities and global cyclical equity sectors. They are still inconclusive: The US broad trade-weighted dollar has recently sold off, but it has not broken down technically (Chart I-5). A decisive relapse below its 200-day moving average will signify that the greenback has entered a major bear market. The latter would be consistent with a sustainable and extended bull market in EM risk assets, commodities and global cyclical equity sectors.  Chart I-5The US Dollar Has Fallen But Not Broken Down Chart I-6Indecisive Signals From Commodities And Commodity Currencies   Even though copper prices have recently rebounded, they have not yet broken above their three-year moving average (Chart I-6, top panel). The latter can be viewed as the neckline of the head-and-shoulders pattern that has formed in recent years. The same holds true for the overall London Metals Exchange Industrial Metals Price Index, as well as our Risk-On/Safe-Haven currency ratio1 (Chart I-6, middle and bottom panels). Barring a decisive break above their three-year moving averages, the jury is still out on the durability of the rally in commodities prices and EM/China plays.   Finally, global industrial share prices and US high-beta stocks have advanced to their 2018 highs, but have not yet broken out (Chart I-7). The same is true for the euro area aggregate stock index in local currency terms (Chart I-8). A decisive breakout above these levels will confirm that global equities in general and cyclical segments in particular are in an enduring bull market. Chart I-7Decisive Breakouts Here Are Needed To Confirm The EM Rally Chart I-8European Share Prices Are At A Critical Juncture   Bottom Line: Several cyclical and high-beta segments of global financial markets are at a critical juncture. A decisive breakout from these key technical levels is required for us to uphold that EM risk assets and global cyclical plays are in a medium-term bull market. The Eye Of The Storm? There are a number of leading indicators and market signals that do not corroborate the common narrative of a sustainable improvement in global manufacturing/trade in general and China’s industrial cycle in particular: First, China’s narrow and broad money growth appear to be rolling over (Chart I-9). Notably, the money impulses lead the credit impulse, as illustrated in Chart I-10. Consequently, we expect the credit impulse – which is the main indicator currently portraying a revival in the Chinese economy as well as in the global business cycle – to roll over in early 2020. Chart I-9China: Narrow And Broad Money Growth Are Rolling Over Chart I-10China: Money Impulses Are Coincident Or Lead Credit Impulse   This entails that the recent tentative improvements in China’s manufacturing, its imports and global trade will not be sustained going forward. Crucially, China’s narrow money (M1) growth point to the lack of a cyclical upturn in EM corporate profits in H1 2020 (Chart I-11). In short, EM listed companies’ profit growth rate stabilizing at around -10% is not a recovery. Second, government bond yields in both China and Korea are not corroborating a revival in their respective business cycles (Chart I-12). Chart I-11EM Corporate Profit Growth To Remain Negative In H1 2020 Chart I-12Asian Rates Are Not Confirming A Recovery   Chinese onshore interest rates have been a reliable compass for both its business cycle as well as EM share prices and currencies as we illustrated in Chart 15 of the November 28 report. For now, the mainland fixed-income market is not predicting an upturn in China’s industrial economy (Chart I-12, top panel). In Korea, exports account for 40% of GDP. Hence, without a considerable export recovery, there cannot be a business cycle revival in Korea. In brief, the latest relapse in local bond yields could be sending a downbeat signal for global trade (Chart I-12, bottom panel). Third, the four-month rise in the Chinese Caixin manufacturing PMI can be partially explained by front-running production and shipments of smartphones, laptops, computers and other electronics ahead of the December 15 round of US tariffs on imports from China. Right after President Trump announced these tariffs in the summer, businesses likely did not take a chance to wait and see. In fact, whether or not these tariffs would have come into effect was unknown till December 13. Manufacturers and US importers of these electronic goods initiated orders, produced and shipped these goods to the US ahead of December 15. Chart I-13Caixin And Taiwanese PMIs Benefited From Front Running Given the focus on that particular round of tariffs was electronics, producers of these goods got a temporary but notable boost from such front-running. Smartphone and electronics manufacturers and their suppliers are predominantly located in Shenzhen and Taiwan. The Caixin manufacturing PMI is a survey of 500 companies, many of which are private enterprises located in Shenzhen. Not surprisingly, the Caixin manufacturing PMI index often fluctuates with Taiwan’s electronics and optical PMI (Chart I-13). In brief, there has been meaningful improvement in China’s and Taiwan’s tech manufacturing. Yet it can be attributed to front-running of production and shipments of electronic products to the US ahead of the December 15 tariff deadline as well as stockpiling of semiconductors by China. The odds are that these measures of manufacturing will slump in early 2020 as the front-running ends. Chart I-14Commodities Prices In China Finally, several commodities prices in China, that troughed in late 2015 ahead of the bottom in global and EM/Chinese equities in early 2016, continue to drift lower or exhibit only a mild uptick. Specifically, these include prices of nickel, steel, iron ore, thermal coal, coke, polyethylene and rubber (Chart I-14). They corroborate that there has been no broad-based amelioration in the mainland’s industrial sector. Bottom Line: In China, narrow and broad money growth has rolled over, onshore interest rates are subsiding and many commodities prices are weak. All of these signify the lack of sustainable growth revival in China in the coming months.  Putting It All Together EM risk assets have rallied on the consensus market narrative that the temporary truce between the US and China will lift global growth. We have written at length that China’s domestic demand – not its exports – has been the epicenter of and basis for the global slowdown over the past two years. Without Chinese domestic demand and imports, not exports, staging a material amelioration, global trade and manufacturing are unlikely to experience a cyclical upturn.   In short, we doubt that the US-China trade truce is alone sufficient to propel a cyclical recovery in global trade and manufacturing. Yet, when the majority of investors perceive things the same way and act on these perceptions, asset prices can move a lot. We continue to believe that China’s industrial sector, global trade, EM ex-China domestic demand and consequently EM corporate profits will continue to disappoint in the first half of 2020. Nevertheless, we presently concede that we need to give benefit of the doubt to markets. We still doubt that the US-China trade truce alone is sufficient to propel a cyclical recovery in global trade and manufacturing. It could be that the EM equity and currency market rallies are not driven by their fundamentals – i.e., corporate profits/exports do not matter. However, it is rather possible that this rally is only stoked by the worst-kept secret in the investment industry: the search for yield. If that is the case, then there is no dichotomy between our fundamental thesis – that EM/China profits/growth will disappoint in H1 2020 – and the rally in EM markets. It seems the market is operating on a “buy now, ask questions later” principle. We had thought that the ongoing and enduring contraction in EM corporate profits (please refer to Chart I-11 on page 8) amid various structural malaises would overwhelm the impact of the global search for yield. However, it seems the market is operating on a “buy now, ask questions later” principle. Overall, we are initiating a long position in the EM equity index as of today. Provided the high uncertainty over the outlook, we are also instituting a stop point at 1050 for the MSCI EM equity index, 5% below its current level. For global equity investors, we continue recommending favoring DM over EM stocks. Finally, our country equity overweights are Korea, Thailand, Russia, central Europe, Pakistan, Vietnam and Mexico. A basket of these bourses is likely to outperform the EM equity benchmark in any market scenario in terms of EM absolute share price performance. We have been and remain neutral on Chinese, Indian, Taiwanese and Brazilian equities. As always, our list of overweight, underweight and market weight recommendations for EM equities, local and US dollar government bonds and currencies are available at the end of our report on pages 17-18 and on our website.   Arthur Budaghyan Chief Emerging Markets Strategist arthurb@bcaresearch.com     Ukraine: Buy Local Currency Bonds EM fixed-income investors should buy Ukraine local currency government bonds as well as overweight Ukraine sovereign credit within an EM credit portfolio. The exchange rate is the key for EM fixed-income investors. The Ukrainian hryvnia will be supported by high real interest rates, improving public debt and balance of payment dynamics, as well as abating geopolitical risks. In turn, a stable currency will keep inflation at bay. In such an environment, investors should favor local currency government bonds, as local interest rates will continue falling.  Chart II-1Inflation Will Fall Further In turn, a stable currency will keep inflation at bay (Chart II-1). In such an environment, investors should favor local currency government bonds, as local interest rates will continue falling. The primary risk of owning Ukrainian domestic bonds is a major depreciation in the hryvnia stemming from a risk-off phase in EM. However, as a periphery country, Ukraine’s financial markets might not correlate with their EM peers. Besides, these bonds offer high carry, which protects them against moderate currency depreciation. Overall, the case for buying Ukraine local currency government bonds is based on the following: First, Ukraine satisfies the two prerequisites for public debt sustainability, namely (1) it runs a robust primary fiscal surplus and/or (2) the government’s borrowing costs are below nominal GDP growth. The public debt-to-GDP ratio stands at 56% and will continue to fall so long as the above two conditions are satisfied. The primary consolidated fiscal surplus currently amounts to 1.8% of GDP (Chart II-2). The recently approved 2020 budget projects the primary surplus to be above 1% of GDP and the overall fiscal deficit to be close to 2% of GDP.  Local currency interest rates are below nominal GDP growth (Chart II-3). In addition, public debt servicing is at 3.2% and 9% as a share of GDP and total government expenditures, respectively. According to the new budget, the government plans to use close to 12% of total spending for debt repayments in 2020. This will further help reduce the public debt load. Chart II-2A Healthy Fiscal Position Chart II-3Interest Rates Are Below Nominal GDP Growth And Are Falling Second, the central bank has more scope to cut interest rates because various measures of inflation will continue falling. Real (adjusted for inflation) interest rates are still very elevated. In particular, the prime lending rate is at 17% for companies and 35% for households, both in nominal terms. Provided core inflation is running at 6%, lending rates are extremely high in real terms. Not surprisingly, narrow and broad money growth are sluggish (Chart II-4). Commercial banks are undergoing major balance sheet deleveraging: their asset growth is in the low single digits in nominal terms, while their value is dropping relative to nominal GDP (Chart II-5). Chart II-4Money Growth Is Sluggish Chart II-5Deleveraging In The Banking Sector Meanwhile, tighter regulations are forcing banks to recognize bad assets and boost their capital. This has led to a sharp drop in the number of registered banks. Such a structural overhaul of the banking system is cyclically deflationary and warrants lower interest rates. Critically, these reforms are a positive for the exchange rate in the long run. Third, receding foreign funding pressures are helping the balance of payments dynamics and are supportive for the currency. Ukrainian exports have been outperforming global exports since 2017 (Chart II-6). Agricultural exports – which represent 40% of total exports – are an important source of foreign currency revenue for the country. Chart II-6Ukraine Exports Are Outperforming Global Trade Chart II-7Tight Fiscal And Monetary Policies Are Good For The Current Account Balance The current account deficit has been narrowing due to slowing domestic demand, arising from tight fiscal and monetary policies (Chart II-7). Foreign ownership of local currency government bonds is $4.6 billion and it makes only 12% of total outstanding amount. Consequently, risk of major foreign portfolio capital outflows due to a risk-off phase in global markets is low. Lastly, Ukraine’s foreign debt obligations – the sum of short-term claims, interest payment and amortization – have been declining and are presently well covered by exports. They comprise 34% of total exports. Finally, geopolitical risks will continue to subside over the coming months. Peace talks between Ukraine and Russia will continue. Importantly, two sets of constraints could force Ukraine and Russia towards resolving the conflict. Specifically: Russia is constrained by its commitment to be a reliable gas supplier to the EU. Half of its gas export capacity passes through Ukraine. European demand for Russian gas is falling and Gazprom gas revenues are decelerating. Cutting transit of gas through Ukraine could now severely jeopardize Russia’s relations with Europe. Therefore, as much as Europe is dependent on Russian gas, Russia is as dependent on European demand for its natural gas.   The EU’s support for Ukraine is contingent on reliable transits of Russian gas into EU countries. As such, President Zelensky is under pressure from Europe to assure transmission of Russian gas to Europe. This has led Zelensky into opening a dialogue with Russia and motivated him to seek a new gas transit deal with Gazprom. Given President Zelensky’s high popularity at home, he has political capital to pursue a rapprochement with Russia and attempt to find a resolution to end the conflict in the Donbass. All of these developments have been, and will continue to be, positively perceived by international investors, sustaining the recent stampede into Ukraine’s fixed-income markets. Investment Recommendation We recommend investors purchase 5-year local currency government bonds currently yielding 12%. EM fixed-income investors should also consider overweighting US dollar sovereign bonds in an EM credit portfolio on the back of improving public debt and balance of payments dynamics.   Andrija Vesic Research Analyst andrijav@bcaresearch.com     Footnotes 1    The Risk-On/Safe-Haven currency ratio is the average of high-beta commodity currencies such as the CAD, AUD, NZD, BRL, CLP and ZAR total return (including carry) indices relative to the average of JPY and CHF total returns (including carry). This ratio is dollar-agnostic. Equities Recommendations Currencies, Credit And Fixed-Income Recommendations

Highlights Prevailing winds are still blowing in favor of the US dollar. Continue shorting a basket of EM currencies versus the greenback. Deflationary forces are gaining momentum in EM/China while inflationary pressures are accumulating in the US economy. The dollar will appreciate further, distributing inflationary pressures away from the US and into EM/China. Feature Our buy stop on the MSCI EM equity index at 1075 has not yet been triggered. Last week the EM index closed a hair short of this level. Our strategy remains intact: We continue to recommend caution and defensive positioning for EM investors, but will recommend playing the rally if the index breaks above this level. The fact that industrial metals and oil prices have failed to rally substantially even though the S&P 500 is making new highs gives us comfort that the Chinese industrial cycle is not experiencing a revival. Our buy stop on the MSCI EM equity index at 1075 has not yet been triggered.  Absent a sustained recovery in the Chinese capital spending and rising commodities prices, EM equities and currencies will not be able to maintain their rebound. Chart I-1 illustrates that the total return on EM ex-China currencies (including the carry) correlates strongly with industrial metals prices. Similarly, EM share prices move in tandem with global materials stocks (Chart I-2). Chart I-1EM Currencies Correlate Strongly With Industrial Metals Prices Chart I-2EM Share Prices Move In Tandem With Global Materials Stocks   The basis for these relationships is as follows: The majority of EM economies, and hence their share prices and exchange rates, are leveraged to China’s business cycle. The latter also drives industrial commodities prices, as the mainland accounts for 50% of global metals consumption. We elaborated on these relationships in our recent report titled EM: Perceptions Versus Reality. In this report, we examine the dichotomy between inflation in EM and US and discuss the macro rebalancing required and the implications for financial markets. Inflation: A Dichotomy Between EM… Low and rapidly falling inflation accompanying extremely weak real growth constitute the current hazards to EM economies and their financial markets: Headline and core inflation in EM ex-China, Korea and Taiwan1 – the universe pertinent for EM bond portfolios – are low and falling, justifying lower interest rates (Chart I-3). Consistently, aggregate nominal GDP growth in these economies is hovering close to its 2015 low (Chart I-4). Chart I-3EM: Inflation Is Low And Falling Chart I-4EM: Nominal GDP Is Subdued And Decelerating Chart I-5EM Ex-China, Korea And Taiwan: Money And Loan Growth Are Slowing In China, core consumer price inflation is at 1.5% and falling, and producer prices are declining. Even though many EM central banks have been cutting rates, narrow and broad money as well as bank loan growth are either weak or decelerating (Chart I-5). In brief, policy easing in these economies hasn’t yet revived money and credit growth. The reason why low nominal interest rates have not yet led to a recovery in money/credit is because real (inflation-adjusted) borrowing costs remain elevated. In addition, poor banking system health stemming from lingering non-performing loans – a legacy of the credit boom early this decade – has also hindered credit origination. Corroborating the fact that borrowing costs are high in real (inflation-adjusted) terms, interest rate and credit-sensitive sectors such as capital spending, real estate and discretionary consumer spending are all extremely weak. In particular, high-frequency data such as capital goods imports and car sales are shrinking (Chart I-6). Residential property markets are very sluggish in the majority of developing economies (Chart I-7). Chart I-6EM Ex-China, Korea And Taiwan: Credit-Sensitive Spending Is Shrinking Chart I-7Property Prices In Local Currency Terms Chart I-8Chinese Imports For Domestic Consumption And EM Exports Finally, the combined exports of EM ex-China, Korea and Taiwan – which are correlated with mainland imports for domestic consumption – are shrinking (Chart I-8). Without a revival in Chinese domestic demand in general, and commodities in particular, EM exports will continue to languish. Bottom Line: Risks stemming from low and falling inflation in EM are rising. While central banks are cutting rates, they are behind the curve. For now, investors should not expect an imminent domestic demand recovery based on EM central bank interest rate cuts. …And The US In contrast to EM, investors and financial markets are complacent about inflation risks in the US. This is not to say that there is a risk of runaway inflation in the US. Our point is as follows: If US growth slows further, US inflation will subside. However, if US growth accelerates, consumer price inflation will surprise to the upside. Sectors such as capital spending, real estate and discretionary consumer spending are all extremely weak. US core consumer price inflation has been trending upwards in the past several years, consistent with a positive and widening output gap (Chart I-9, top panel). The average of six core consumer price inflation measures – core CPI, core PCE, trimmed mean CPI, trimmed PCE, market-based core PCE, and median CPI – is slightly above 2% and looks to be headed higher (Chart I-9, bottom panel). US unit labor costs are rising faster than the corporate price deflator (Chart I-10, top panel). A tight labor market will translate to robust wage growth.  Chart I-9Barring Slowdown, US Core Inflation Will Rise Further Chart I-10Beware Of A US Profit Margin Squeeze   With corporate profit margins already shrinking (Chart I-10, bottom panel) and consumer spending robust, companies will try to pass on higher costs to consumers. Hence, barring a slowdown in US consumer spending, consumer price inflation will likely rise. If global growth recovers, the dollar will sell off and US manufacturing will revive. Provided these two factors have been counteracting inflationary pressures in the US, their reversal will allow inflation to rise. Bottom Line: Underlying core inflation in the US has been drifting higher. Unless growth slows, inflation will surprise to the upside. Macro Rebalancing: In The Dollar’s Favor Bond yields and exchange rates often act as shock absorbers and re-balancing mechanisms for the global economy. The agility and corresponding adjustments of these financial variables assure a more stable real global economy. Given the current inflationary pressures in the US amid deflationary forces in EM, one of the ways in which this adjustment process will manifest itself is in the form of US dollar appreciation versus EM currencies. A strong greenback will redistribute inflationary pressures away from the US and into EM. An analogy for this adjustment process is the role of wind in rebalancing air pressure around the globe. When air pressure in location A is higher than in location B, the air moves from location A to location B, causing wind. This allows for a rebalancing of air pressure around the earth. US core consumer price inflation has been trending upwards in the past several years. When air pressure differences are substantial, winds become forceful – potentially to the point of causing damage. In a nutshell, this adjustment could come at the cost of strong winds, or even a storm. Global currency markets play a similar role to wind. A strong greenback will help cap US inflation by dampening activity and employment in America’s manufacturing sector. Slumping manufacturing will moderate activity in the service sector, as well as slowdown aggregate income and spending growth.  In turn, weakening currencies will help reflate EM economies by mitigating the negative impact of lower exports in general and commodities prices in particular. EM economies need an external boost, especially now when their banking systems are in hibernation mode and China is not boosting its demand to the same extent it did during downturns since 2008. A caveat is in order here: In the case of many EMs, currency deprecation will initially hurt growth. The reason is that companies and banks in many EMs still hold large amounts of US dollar debt (Chart I-11). As the dollar appreciates, the cost of foreign debt servicing will escalate, prompting them to reduce corporate spending and bank lending. Hence, wind could turn into a storm. All in all, we continue to bet on EM currency depreciation, regardless of the direction of US bond yields. The basis is as follows: Contrary to widespread consensus, EM exchange rates correlate more strongly with commodities prices – please refer to Chart I-1 on page 1 – than US bond yields as shown in Chart I-12. Chart I-11EM External Debt Is A Risk If EM Currencies Depreciate Chart I-12EM Currencies And US Bond Yields: No Stable Relationship   Emerging Asian currencies correlate with their export prices and the global trade cycle. Neither global trade activity nor Asian export prices are recovering (Chart I-13). Therefore, the recent bounce in EM currencies is not sustainable.   Given the current inflationary pressures in the US amid deflationary forces in EM, one of the ways in which this adjustment process will manifest itself is in the form of US dollar appreciation versus EM currencies. Could it be that US inflationary pressures are dampened by deflationary tendencies originating from EM/China, producing a benign (goldilocks) scenario for financial markets? It is possible but not likely in the case of EM financial markets. Exchange rates hold the key to all EM asset classes. If the US dollar continues drifting higher – which is our bet – it will stifle the performance of EM equity, local bonds and credit markets (Chart I-14). Chart I-13Asian Export Prices And Container Freight Herald Weaker Regional Currencies Chart I-14Trade-Weighted Dollar And EM Share Prices Are Still Correlated   Further, Box I-1 on page 10 discusses the 2008 clash between inflationary forces in EM and deflation in the US. Bottom Line: We continue to recommend playing the following EM currencies on the short side versus the dollar: ZAR, CLP, COP, IDR, KRW and PHP. We are also short CNY versus the dollar. For allocations within EM equity, domestic bonds and sovereign credit, please refer to our investment recommendations on pages 16-17. Arthur Budaghyan Chief Emerging Markets Strategist arthurb@bcaresearch.com Box 1 Inflationary + Deflationary Forces = Goldilocks? Will inflationary pressures in the US be offset by disinflation in EM, resulting in a goldilocks outcome globally? A goldilocks period is one in which strong growth is accompanied by moderate inflation. It is possible, but in the global macro world inflation + deflation does not always equal goldilocks. In other words in global macro, (1-1) does not always equal zero. For instance, an inflation dichotomy was present in the first half of 2008. Back then, the US economy was already in recession, with acute deflationary pressures stemming from the deflating housing and credit bubbles. In turn, EM growth was still rampant and inflationary pressures were acute. In fact, in the period between March and mid-July of 2008, US and global bond yields were climbing on the back of rising worries about inflation. In retrospect, such an inflation dichotomy between the US and EM did not result in a goldilocks environment, but occurred on the precipice of the largest deflationary black hole in the post-war period. In the second half of 2008, US deflation overwhelmed EM inflation, generating a major deflationary tsunami worldwide. Russia: Long Domestic Bonds / Short Oil Chart II-1Undershooting CB's 4% Inflation Target Russia’s growth is already very sluggish. Lower oil prices2 entail both weaker growth and ruble weakness. The primary risk in Russia is low and falling inflation rather than rising inflation. Therefore, unlike in previous downturns, the central bank will be able to engage in counter-cyclical monetary policy, namely continue cutting interest rates. This makes a long position in local currency bonds a “no-brainer”.  The only risk to owning Russian domestic bonds is the ruble depreciation due to falling oil prices and a risk-off phase in EM exchange rate markets. To hedge against these risks, we recommend the following trade: long Russian domestic bonds / short oil. The macro backdrop in Russia justifies considerably lower interest rates and we believe the central bank will deliver further rate cuts despite moderate currency depreciation. As a result, local bonds on a total- return basis in US dollar terms will outperform oil. The basis to expect a further meaningful drop in interest rates in Russia is as follows: Inflation Is Low And Falling: Various measures of inflation suggest that disinflation is broad based (Chart II-1). As a result, inflation will continue falling towards the central bank’s inflation target of 4%. Crucially, wage growth is decelerating both in nominal and real terms (Chart II-2). Monetary Policy Is Still Restrictive: Even though the central bank has cut rates by 125bps over the past 6 months, monetary policy remains behind the dis-inflation curve. Both policy and lending rates remain too high, especially relative to the low nominal growth environment (Chart II-3). Real borrowing costs stand at 9% for consumer and 4.5% for corporate loans (Chart II-4). The macro backdrop in Russia justifies considerably lower interest rates and we believe the central bank will deliver further rate cuts despite moderate currency depreciation. Chart II-2Russia: Sluggish Wage Growth Chart II-3Russia: Tight Monetary Policy   Notably, weakening credit impulses for both business and consumer segments suggest that domestic demand will disappoint (Chart II-5). Chart II-4Russia: High Real Lending Rate Across Sectors Chart II-5Weakening Credit Impulses = Lower Demand And Investment   Since October 1, the CBR has taken measures to curb consumer borrowing from banking and non-banks credit institutions. These new guidelines limit the latter’s lending to consumers with high debt loads. In short, much lower nominal and real interest rates will be required to reinvigorate domestic demand. Fiscal Policy Is Tight: The government has overplayed its hand in running very tight fiscal policy. The government primary budget surplus now stands at 3.8% of GDP. Government spending growth both in real and nominal terms remains very weak (Chart II-6). The National Project initiative has not yet been sufficient to expand government expenditures. In fact, a recent report from the Audit Chamber suggests that total spending under this National Project program for 2019 will be below government targets of 3% of GDP per year. Finally, the authorities committed a policy mistake at the beginning of year by hiking the VAT tax which has hurt consumption. Russian local currency bond yields are set to fall, even as oil prices decline over the coming months. A Healthy Balance Of Payment (BoP) Position: Total external debt and debt servicing are extremely low by emerging markets standards. Russia has the lowest external debt amongst its EM counterparts. Likewise, Russia’s international investment portfolio liabilities – foreigners’ ownership of equities and bonds – remain one of the lowest amongst EM (Chart II-7). Chart II-6A Lot Of Room To Boost Government Spending Chart II-7Foreigners' Holding Of Russian Financial Assets Are Low   Investment Recommendations Chart II-8Local Bonds Are Decoupling From Oil Russian local currency bond yields are set to fall, even as oil prices decline over the coming months (Chart II-8). In light of this, we recommend the following pair trade: long local currency bonds / short oil. Dedicated EM fixed-income portfolios should continue to overweight Russian sovereign and corporate credit, as well as local currency government bonds relative to their respective EM benchmarks. Tight fiscal and monetary policies favor creditors. We have been bullish on Russian markets for some time arguing that they will behave as a low-beta play in EM selloff as discussed in our previous report. This view remains intact. Dedicated EM equity portfolios should continue overweighting Russian stocks, a recommendation made in October 2018. Given the ruble will likely depreciate gradually rather than plunge amid falling oil prices, the authorities will continue cutting rates and provide fiscal stimulus. That will benefit Russia versus many other EM countries. Finally, we remain long the RUB versus the Colombian Peso, a trade instituted on May 31, 2018. Andrija Vesic Research Analyst andrijav@bcaresearch.com   Arthur Budaghyan Chief Emerging Markets Strategist arthurb@bcaresearch.com Footnotes 1    We exclude economies of China, Korea and Taiwan because they are different in their economic structure and inflation dynamics compared with majority of EMs. 2   BCA’s Emerging Markets Strategy team expects lower oil prices consistent with its thesis of EM slowdown. This is different from BCA’s house view that is bullish on oil. Equities Recommendations Currencies, Credit And Fixed-Income Recommendations

Analysis on Mexico and Central Europe is available on pages 6 and 10, respectively. Highlights Deflationary pressures have been intensifying in Malaysia and the central bank will be forced to cut its policy rate. To play this theme, we recommend receiving 2-year swap rates. In Mexico, pieces are falling into place for stocks to outperform the EM equity benchmark on a sustainable basis. We are also keeping an overweight allocation on Mexican sovereign credit and local currency bonds. In Central Europe (CE), inflation will continue to rise as both labor shortages and ultra-accommodative monetary and fiscal policies promote strong domestic demand. We are downgrading our allocation of CE local currency bonds from overweight to neutral. Malaysia: Besieged By Deflationary Pressures Malaysian interest rates appear elevated given the state of its economy. Deflationary pressures have been intensifying and the central bank will be forced to cut its policy rate. The Malaysian economy continues to face strong deflationary pressures. To play this theme, we recommend receiving 2-year swap rates. We are also upgrading our recommended allocation to Malaysian local currency and U.S. dollar government bonds for dedicated EM fixed-income portfolios from neutral to overweight. The Malaysian economy continues to face strong deflationary pressures, requiring significant rate cuts by the central bank: Chart I-1 shows that the GDP deflator is flirting with deflation, and nominal GDP growth has slowed to the level of commercial banks’ average lending rates. Falling nominal growth amid elevated corporate and household debt levels is an extremely toxic mix (Chart I-2, top panel). Notably, debt-servicing costs for the private sector – both businesses and households – are high at 13.5% of GDP and are also rising (Chart I-2, bottom panel).  Chart I-1The Malaysian Economy Is Flirting With Deflation Chart I-2High Leverage & Debt Servicing Costs Among Businesses & Households Crucially, real borrowing costs are elevated. In real terms, the prime lending rate stands at 5% when deflated by the GDP deflator, and at 3% when deflated by headline CPI. Notably, private credit growth (outstanding business and household loans) has plunged to a 15-year low (Chart I-3), underscoring that real borrowing costs are excessive. Chart I-3Malaysia: Credit Growth Is In Freefall Chart I-4Malaysia's Corporate Sector Is Struggling Malaysia’s corporate sector is struggling. The manufacturing PMI is below the critical 50 threshold and is showing no signs of recovery. Listed companies’ profits are shrinking (Chart I-4, top panel). Poor corporate profitability is prompting cutbacks in capex spending (Chart I-4, middle and bottom panels) and weighing on employment and wages. The household sector has been retrenching; retail sales have been contracting and personal vehicle sales have been shrinking (Chart I-5). The property market – in particular the residential sub-sector – is still in recession. Property sales and starts are falling, and property prices are flirting with deflation (Chart I-6).   Critically, monetary policy easing and exchange rate depreciation are the only levers available to policymakers to reflate the economy. Fiscal policy is constrained as the budget deficit is already large at 3.4% of GDP, and public debt is elevated. Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad is in fact aiming to reduce the total national debt (including off-balance-sheet debt) back to the government’s ceiling of 54% of GDP (from 80% currently). Chart I-5Malaysian Households Are Retrenching Chart I-6Malaysia's Property Sector Is In A Downturn   Bottom Line: The Malaysian economy is besieged by deflationary pressures and requires lower borrowing costs. The central bank will deliver rate cuts in the coming months. Investment Recommendations A new trade idea: receive 2-year swap rates as a bet on rate cuts by the central bank. Consistently, for dedicated EM bond portfolios, we are upgrading local currency and U.S. dollar-denominated government bonds from neutral to overweight. Chart I-7Overweight Malaysian Local Currency And U.S. Dollar Government Bonds While we are downbeat on the ringgit versus the U.S. dollar, Malaysian domestic bonds will likely outperform the EM GBI index in common currency terms on a total return basis (Chart I-7, top panel). The same is true for excess returns on the country’s sovereign credit (Chart I-7, bottom panel).     The basis for the ringgit’s more moderate depreciation, especially in comparison with other EM currencies, is as follows: First, foreigners have reduced their holdings of local currency bonds. The share of foreign ownership has declined from 36% in 2015 to 22% now of total outstanding local domestic bonds in the past 4 years (Chart I-8). Hence, currency depreciation will not trigger large foreign capital outflows. Second, the trade balance is in surplus and improving. This will provide a cushion for the ringgit. Finally, the ringgit is cheap in real effective terms which also limits the potential downside (Chart I-9).   Dedicated EM equity portfolios should keep a neutral allocation on Malaysian stocks. We are taking profits on our long Malaysian small-cap stocks relative to the EM small-cap index position. This recommendation has generated a 6.6% gain since its initiation on December 14, 2018. Chart I-8Foreigners' Share Of Local Currency Bonds Has Dropped Chart I-9The Ringgit Is Cheap   Ayman Kawtharani Editor/Strategist ayman@bcaresearch.com   Mexico: Raising Our Conviction On Equity Outperformance Mexican local currency bonds, as well as sovereign and corporate credit, have been one of our highest conviction overweights for some time. These positions have played out very well (Chart II-1). Presently, pieces are falling into place for Mexican stocks to outperform the EM equity benchmark on a sustainable basis. First, long-lasting outperformance by Mexican local currency bonds and corporate credit will lead to the stock market’s outperformance relative to the EM benchmark. Chart II-2 shows that when Mexican local currency bond and corporate dollar bond yields fall relative to their EM peers, the Bolsa tends to outperform. In brief, a relative decline in the cost of capital will eventually translate into relative equity outperformance. Chart II-1Mexico Vs. EM: Domestic Bonds And Credit Markets Chart II-2Mexico: Relative Stock Prices Are Correlated With Relative Cost Of Capital Second – as discussed in detail in our previous Special Report – market worries about Mexico’s fiscal position are overblown, especially relative to other developing nations such as Brazil and South Africa. Orthodox fiscal and monetary policies, as well as low public debt, warrant a lower risk premium in Mexico, both in absolute terms and relative to other EM countries. Moreover, market participants and credit agencies have overstated the precariousness of Pemex’s debt and financing requirements. Pemex U.S. dollar bond yields have been falling steadily compared to EM aggregate corporate bond yields since the announcements of policies aimed at supporting the company’s debt sustainability. We have discussed Pemex’s financial sustainability and its effect on public finances in past reports.1  Third, having cut rates twice since September, the Central Bank of Mexico (Banxico) has embarked on a rate cutting cycle. This is positive for stock prices, as it implies higher equity valuations and will eventually put a floor under the economy.  Given that both core and headline inflation have fallen within the target bands, this gives the monetary authorities more room to reduce interest rates. Banxico members have been vocal about their desire to cut rates further, which is being foreshadowed by the swap market (Chart II-3, top panel). Given that both core and headline inflation have fallen within the target bands, this gives the monetary authorities more room to reduce interest rates. The slowdown in the domestic economy and Andrés Manuel López Obrador’ (AMLO) administration’s tight fiscal policy will enable and encourage Banxico to further ease monetary policy (Chart II-3, bottom panel). Fourth, another positive market catalyst for Mexican equities is the ongoing outperformance of EM consumer staples versus the overall EM index. Consumer staples have a large 35% share of the overall Mexico MSCI stock index, while this sector in the EM MSCI benchmark accounts for only 7%. Therefore, durable outperformance by consumer staples often hints at a relative cyclical outperformance for the Mexican bourse (Chart II-4). Chart II-3Mexico: Continue Betting On Lower Rates Chart II-4Mexican Equities Are A Play On Consumer Staples Chart II-5Mexican Stocks Offer Reasonable Value Finally, Mexican equities are not expensive. Chart II-5 illustrates that according to our cyclically-adjusted P/E ratios, Mexican stocks offer good value in both absolute terms and relative to EM overall. We continue to believe AMLO’s administration is proving to be a pragmatic government with the aim of reducing rent-seeking activities and addressing structural issues such as poverty, corruption and crime. These policies will be positive for the economy over the long run and share prices will move higher in anticipation. Bottom Line: We are reiterating our overweight allocation on Mexican sovereign credit and domestic local currency bonds within their respective EM benchmarks. With further rate cuts on the horizon, yet upside risks to EM local currency bond yields, we continue to recommend a curve steepening trade in Mexico: receiving 2-year and paying 10-year swap rates.  We now have high conviction that Mexican share prices will stage a cyclical outperformance relative to their EM peers. The bottom panel of Chart II-4 on page 8 illustrates that Mexican stocks seem to have formed a major bottom and are about to begin outperforming the EM equity benchmark. Dedicated EM equity managers should have a large overweight allocation to Mexican stocks. Our recommendation of favoring small-caps over large-cap companies in Mexico has been very profitable since we argued for this trade last November. We are taking a 12.9% profit on this position and recommend keeping an overweight allocation to both Mexican large- and small-caps within an EM equity portfolio.   Juan Egaña Research Associate juane@bcaresearch.com Arthur Budaghyan Chief Emerging Markets Strategist arthurb@bcaresearch.com     Central Europe: An Inflationary Enclave In Deflationary Europe Our macroeconomic theme for Central European (CE) economies – Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic, elaborated in the linked report, has been as follows: Inflation will continue to rise as both labor shortages and ultra-accommodative monetary as well as fiscal policies in CE promote strong domestic demand. CE economies have stood out as an inflationary enclave in Europe. Notably, CE economies have stood out as an inflationary enclave in Europe. Going forward, inflation will continue to rise across this region, despite the ongoing contraction in European manufacturing. First, Hungary’s and Poland’s central banks are behind the curve – they remain reluctant to hike rates amid rampantly rising inflation within overheating economies (Chart III-1). In turn, real policy rates across CE are becoming more negative and will promote robust money and credit growth (Chart III-2).      Chart III-1CE Central Banks Are Behind The Curve Chart III-2Low Real Rates Promote Rampant Credit Growth Policymakers are justifying stimulative policies by stressing ongoing woes in the Europe-wide manufacturing downturn. Yet, they are paying little attention to genuine inflationary pressures in their own economies. Most notably in Hungary, the National Bank of Hungary (NBH) has been aggressively suppressing its policy rate and engaging in a corporate QE program, despite rising inflation and an overheating economy. Similarly, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) seems inclined to cut rates sooner rather than later. On the other end of the spectrum though, the Czech National Bank (CNB) is the only CE central bank to have embarked on a rate hiking cycle over the past 18 months. Going forward, the CNB looks most likely to normalize rates by continuing its hiking cycle. This development will favor rate differentials between it and the rest of CE. As such, we remain long the CZK versus both the HUF and PLN (Chart III-3). Chart III-3Favor CZK Versus PLN & HUF Chart III-4Germany's Manufacturing Cycles And CE Inflation Second, European manufacturing cycles have historically defined CE inflation trends, with time lags of around 12 to 18 months. However, this time around, the euro area manufacturing recession will not translate into slower CE inflation and growth dynamics (Chart III-4). Above all, booming credit induced by real negative borrowing costs has incentivized robust domestic demand in general and construction activity in particular in CE. In addition, employment growth remains strong and double-digit wage growth has supported strong consumer spending (Chart III-5). As a result, manufacturing production volumes have remained relatively resilient in Hungary and Poland, even as manufacturing output volumes in both Germany and the broader euro area have been contracting (Chart III-6). Chart III-5Strong Domestic Demand In CE… Chart III-6...Entails Divergences In Manufacturing With Euro Area Third, inflationary pressures in CE are both acute and genuine. Wage growth has been rising faster than productivity growth across the region, leading to surging unit labor costs (Chart III-7). Mounting wage pressures reflect widespread labor shortages. Further, output gaps in these economies have turned positive, which has historically been a precursor of inflationary pressures. Finally, fiscal policy in CE will remain very expansionary, supporting strong business and consumer demand. Bottom Line: Super-accommodative monetary and fiscal policies have led to a classic case of overheating within CE, particularly in Hungary and Poland, and less so in the Czech Republic. Chart III-7Genuine Inflationary Pressures In Central Europe Chart III-8A Widening Current Account Deficit Is A Symptom Of Overheating Investment Implications Deteriorating current accounts (Chart III-8), rising inflation and behind-the-curve central banks warrant further currency depreciation in both Hungary and Poland. This is why we continue to recommend a short position on both the HUF and PLN versus the CZK. We are closing our Hungarian/euro area relative three-year swap rate trade with a loss of 87 basis points. Our expectation that the market would price in rate hikes in Hungary despite the central bank’s dovishness has not materialized. Investors should remain overweight CE equities within an EM portfolio due to strong domestic demand in these economies and no direct economic exposure to China. As we expect EM equities to underperform DM stocks, we continue to recommend underweighting CE versus the core European markets. We are downgrading our allocation to CE local currency bonds from overweight to neutral within an EM domestic bond portfolio. The primary reason is a risk of a selloff in core European rates.   Anddrija Vesic Research Analyst andrija@bcaresearch.com     Footnotes 1. Please see Emerging Markets Strategy, "Mexico: The Best Value In EM Fixed Income," dated April 23, 2019 and "Mexico: Crying Out For Policy Easing," dated September 5, 2019, available at ems.bcaresearch.com Equities Recommendations Currencies, Credit And Fixed-Income Recommendations

Highlights The U.S. and China are moving toward formalizing a trade ceasefire that reduces geopolitical risk in the near term. The risk of a no-deal Brexit is finished – removing a major downside to European assets. Spanish elections reinforce our narrative of general European political stability. Go long 10-year Italian BTPs / short 10-year Spanish bonos for a trade. Geopolitical risks will remain elevated in Turkey, rise in Russia, but remain subdued in Brazil. A post-mortem of Canada’s election suggests upside to fiscal spending but further downside to energy sector investment over the short to medium term. Feature After a brief spike in trade war-related geopolitical risk just prior to the resumption of U.S.-China negotiations, President Trump staged a tactical retreat in the trade war. Chart 1Proxy For Trade War Shows Falling Risk Negotiating in Washington, President Trump personally visited the top Chinese negotiator Liu He and the two sides announced an informal “phase one deal” to reverse the summer’s escalation in tensions: China will buy $40-$50 billion in U.S. agricultural goods while the U.S. will delay the October 15 tariff hike. More difficult issues – forced tech transfer, intellectual property theft, industrial subsidies – were punted to later. The RMB is up 0.7% and our own measures of trade war-related risk have dropped off sharply (Chart 1). We think these indicators will be confirmed and Trump’s retreat will continue – as long as he has a chance to save the 2020 economic outlook and his reelection campaign. Odds are low that Trump will be removed from office by a Republican-controlled senate – the looming election provides the republic with an obvious recourse for Trump’s alleged misdeeds. However, Trump’s approval rating is headed south. While it is around the same level as President Obama’s at this point in his first term, Obama’s started a steep and steady rise around now and ended above 50% for the election, a level that is difficult to foresee for Trump (Chart 2). So Trump desperately needs an economic boost and a policy victory to push up his numbers. Short of passing the USMCA, which is in the hands of the House Democrats, a deal with China is the only way to get a major economic and political win at the same time. Hence the odds of Presidents Trump and Xi actually signing some kind of agreement are the highest they have been since April (when we had them pegged at 50/50). Trump will have to delay the December 15 tariff hike and probably roll back some of the tariffs over next year as continuing talks “make progress,” though we doubt he will remove restrictions on tech companies like Huawei. Still, we strongly believe that what is coming is a détente rather than the conclusion of the Sino-American rivalry crowned with a Bilateral Trade Agreement. Strategic tensions are rising on a secular basis between the two countries. These tensions could still nix Trump’s flagrantly short-term deal-making, and they virtually ensure that some form of trade war will resume in 2021 or 2022, if indeed a ceasefire is maintained in 2020. Both sides are willing to reduce immediate economic pain but neither side wants to lose face politically. Trump will not forge a “grand compromise.” Our highest conviction view all along has been – and remains – that Trump will not forge a “grand compromise” ushering in a new period of U.S.-China economic reengagement in the medium or long term. China’s compliance, its implementation of structural changes, will be slow or lacking and difficult to verify at least until the 2020 verdict is in. This means policy uncertainty will linger and business confidence and capex intentions will only improve on the margin, not skyrocket upward (Chart 3). Chart 2Trump Needs A Policy Win And Economic Boost Chart 3Sentiment Will Improve ... Somewhat The problem for bullish investors is that even if global trade uncertainty falls, and the dollar’s strength eases, fear will shift from geopolitics to politics, and from international equities to American equities (Chart 4). Trump, hit by impeachment and an explosive reaction to his Syria policy, is entering into dangerous territory for the 2020 race. Trump’s domestic weakness threatens imminent equity volatility for two reasons. Chart 4American Outperformance Falls With Trade Tensions Chart 5Democratic Win In 2020 Is Market-Negative First, if Trump’s approval rating falls below today’s 42%, investors will begin pricing a Democratic victory in 2020, i.e. higher domestic policy uncertainty, higher taxes, and the re-regulation of the American economy (Chart 5). This re-rating may be temporarily delayed or mitigated by the fact that former Vice President Joe Biden is still leading the Democratic Party’s primary election race. Biden is a known quantity whose policies would simply restore the Obama-era status quo, which is only marginally market-negative. Contrary to our expectations Biden's polling has not broken down due to accusations of foul play in Ukraine and China. Nevertheless, Senator Elizabeth Warren will gradually suck votes away from fellow progressive Senator Bernie Sanders and in doing so remain neck-and-neck with Biden (Chart 6). When and if she pulls ahead of Biden, markets face a much greater negative catalyst. (Yes, she is also capable of beating Trump, especially if his polling remains as weak as it is.) Chart 6Warren Will Rise To Front-Runner Status With Biden Second, if Trump becomes a “lame duck” he will eventually reverse the trade retreat above and turn into a loose cannon in his final months in office. Right now we see a decline in geopolitical risk, but if the economy fails to rebound or the China ceasefire offers little support, then Trump will at some point conclude that his only chance at reelection is to double down on his confrontation with America’s enemies and run as a “war president.” A cold war crisis with China, or a military confrontation with Iran (or North Korea, Venezuela, or some unexpected target) could occur. But since September we have been confirmed in believing that Trump is trying to be the dealmaker one last time before any shift to the war president. Bottom Line: The “phase one” trade deal is really just a short-term ceasefire. Assuming it is signed by Trump and Xi, it suggests no increase in tariffs and some tariff rollback next year. However, as recessionary fears fade, and if Trump’s reelection chances stabilize, U.S.-China tensions on a range of issues will revive – and there is no getting around the longer-term conflict between the two powers. For this and other reasons, we remain strategically short RMB-USD, as the flimsy ceasefire will only briefly see RMB appreciation. BoJo's Brexit Bluff Is Finished Our U.K. indicator captured a sharp decline in political risk in the past two weeks and our continental European indicators mirrored this move (Chart 7). The risk that the U.K. would fall out of the EU without a withdrawal agreement has collapsed even further than in September, when parliament rejected Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s no-deal gambit and we went long GBP-USD. We have since added a long GBP-JPY trade. Chart 7Collapse In No-Deal Risk Will Echo Across Europe Chart 8Unlikely To See Another Tory/Brexit Rally Like This The risk of “no deal” is the only reason to care about Brexit from a macro point of view, as the difference between “soft Brexit” and “no Brexit” is not globally relevant. What matters is the threat of a supply-side shock to Europe when it is already on the verge of recession. With this risk removed, sentiment can begin to recover (and Trump’s trade retreat also confirms our base case that he will not impose tariffs on European cars on November 14). Since Brexit was the only major remaining European political risk, European policy uncertainty will continue to fall. The Halloween deadline was averted because the EU, on the brink of recession, offered a surprising concession to Johnson, enabling him to agree to a deal and put it up for a vote in parliament. The deal consists of keeping Northern Ireland in the European Customs Union but not the whole of the U.K., effectively drawing a new soft border at the Irish Sea. The bill passed the second reading but parliament paused before finalizing it, rejecting Johnson’s rapid three-day time table. The takeaway is that even if an impending election returns Johnson to power, he will seek to pass his deal rather than pull the U.K. out without a deal. This further lowers the odds of a no-deal Brexit as it illuminates Johnson's preferences, which are normally hidden from objective analysis. True, there is a chance that the no-deal option will reemerge if Johnson’s deal totally collapses due to parliamentary amendments, or if the U.K. and EU have failed to agree to a future relationship by the end of the transition period on December 31, 2020 (which can be extended until the end of 2022). However, the chance is well below the 30% which we deemed as the peak risk of no-deal back in August. Johnson created the most credible threat of a no-deal exit that we are likely to see in our lifetimes – a government with authority over foreign policy determined to execute the outcome of a popular referendum – and yet parliament stopped it dead in its tracks. Johnson does not want a no-deal recession and his successors will not want one either. After all, the support for Brexit and for the Tories has generally declined since the referendum, and the Tories are making a comeback on the prospect of an orderly Brexit (Chart 8). All eyes will now turn toward the impending election. Opinion polls still show that Johnson is likely to be returned to power (Chart 9). The Tories have a prospect of engrossing the pro-Brexit vote while the anti-Brexit opposition stands divided. No-deal risk only reemerges if the Conservatives are returned to power with another weak coalition that paralyzes parliament. Chart 9Tory Comeback As BoJo Gets A Deal Chart 10Brexit Means Greater Fiscal Policy Whatever the election result, we maintain our long-held position that Brexit portends greater fiscal largesse (Chart 10). The agitated swath of England that drove the referendum result will not be assuaged by leaving the European Union – the rewards of Brexit are not material but philosophical, so material grievances will return. Voter frustration will rotate from the EU to domestic political elites. Voters will demand more government support for social concerns. Johnson’s own government confirms this point through its budget proposals. A Labour-led government would oversee an even more dramatic fiscal shift. Our GeoRisk indicator will fall on Brexit improvements but the question of the election and next government will ensure it does not fall too far. Our long GBP trades are tactical and we expect volatility to remain elevated. But the greatest risk, of no deal, is finished, so it does make sense for investors with a long time horizon to go strategically long the pound. The greatest risk, of a no deal Brexit, is finished. Bottom Line: Brexit posed a risk to the global economy only insofar as it proved disorderly. A withdrawal agreement by definition smooths the process. Continental Europe will not suffer a further shock to net exports. The Brexit contribution to global policy uncertainty will abate. The pound will rise against the euro and yen and even against the dollar as long as Trump’s trade retreat continues. Spain: Further Evidence Of European Stability We have long argued that the majority of Catalans do not want independence, but rather a renegotiation of the region's relationship with Spain (Chart 11). This month’s protests in Barcelona following the Catalan independence leaders’ sentencing are at the lower historical range in terms of size – protest participation peaked in 2015 along with support for independence (Table 1). Table 1October Catalan Protests Unimpressive Our Spanish risk indicator is showing a decline in political risk (Chart 12). However, we believe that this fall is slightly overstated. While the Catalan independence movement is losing its momentum, the ongoing protests are having an impact on seat projections for the upcoming election.  Chart 11Catalonians Not Demanding Independence Chart 12Right-Wing Win Could Surprise Market, But No Worries Since the April election, the right-wing bloc of the People’s Party, Ciudadanos, and Vox has been gaining in the seat projections at the expense of the Socialist Party and Podemos. Over the course of the protests, the left-wing parties’ lead over the right-wing parties has narrowed from seven seats to one (Chart 13). If this momentum continues, a change of government from left-wing to right-wing becomes likely. However, a right-wing government is not a market-negative outcome, and any increase in risk on this sort of election surprise would be short-lived. The People’s Party has moderated its message and focused on the economy. Besides pledging to limit the personal tax rate to 40% and corporate tax rate to 20%, the People’s Party platform supports innovation, R&D spending, and startups. The party is promising tax breaks and easier immigration rules to firms and employees pursuing these objectives. Chart 13Spanish Right-Wing Parties Narrow Gap With Left Another outcome of the election would be a governing deal between PSOE and Podemos, along with case-by-case support from Ciudadanos. After a shift to the right lost Ciudadanos 5% in support since the April election, leader Albert Rivera announced in early October that he would be lifting the “veto” on working with the Socialist Party. If the right-wing parties fall short of a majority, then Rivera would be open to talks with Socialist leader Pedro Sanchez. A governing deal between PSOE, Podemos, and Ciudadanos would have 175 seats, as of the latest projections, which is just one seat short of a majority. As we go to press, this is the only outcome that would end Spain’s current political gridlock, and would therefore be the most market-positive outcome. Bottom Line: Despite having a fourth election in as many years, Spanish political risk is contained. This is reinforced by a relatively politically stable backdrop in continental Europe, and marginally positive developments in the U.K. and on the trade front. We remain long European versus U.S. technology, and long EU versus Chinese equities. We will also be looking to go long EUR/USD when and if the global hard data turn. Following our European Investment Strategy, we recommend going long 10-year Italian BTPs / short 10-year Spanish bonos for a trade. Turkey, Brazil, And Russia Chart 14Turkish Risk Will Rise Despite 'Ceasefire' Turkey’s political risk skyrocketed upward after we issued our warning in September (Chart 14). We maintain that the Trump-Erdogan personal relationship is not a basis for optimism regarding Turkey’s evading U.S. sanctions. Both chambers of the U.S. Congress are preparing a more stringent set of sanctions, focusing on the Turkish military, in the wake of Trump’s decision to withdraw U.S. forces from northeast Syria. At a time when Trump needs allies in the senate to defend him against eventual impeachment articles, he is not likely to veto and risk an override. Moreover, Turkey’s military incursion into Syria, which may wax and wane, stems from economic and political weakness at home and will eventually exacerbate that weakness by fueling the growing opposition to Erdogan’s administration and requiring more unorthodox monetary and fiscal accommodation. It reinforces our bearish outlook on Turkish lira and assets. Chart 15Brazilian Risk Will Not Re-Test 2018 Highs Brazil’s political risk has rebounded (Chart 15). The Senate has virtually passed the pension reform bill, as expected, which raises the official retirement age for men and women to 65 and 63 respectively. This will generate upwards of 800 billion Brazilian real in savings to improve the public debt profile. Of course, the country will still run primary deficits and thus the public debt-to-GDP ratio will still rise. Now the question shifts to President Jair Bolsonaro and his governing coalition. Bolsonaro’s approval rating has ticked up as we expected (Chart 16). If this continues then it is bullish for Brazil because it suggests that he will be able to keep his coalition together. But investors should not get ahead of themselves. Bolsonaro is not an inherently pro-market leader, there is no guarantee that he will remain disciplined in pursuing pro-productivity reforms, and there is a substantial risk that his coalition will fray without pension reform as a shared goal (at least until markets riot and push the coalition back together). Therefore we expect political risk to abate only temporarily, if at all, before new trouble emerges. Furthermore, if reform momentum wanes next year, then Brazil’s reform story as a whole will falter, since electoral considerations emerge in 2021-22. Hence it will be important to verify that policymakers make progress on reforms to tax and trade policy early next year. Our Russian geopolitical risk indicator is also lifting off of its bottom (see Appendix). This makes sense given Russia’s expanding strategic role (particularly in the Middle East), its domestic political troubles, and the risks of the U.S. election. The latter is especially significant given the risk (not our base case, however) that a Democratic administration could take a significantly more aggressive posture toward Russia. Political risk in Turkey and Russia will continue to rise. Bottom Line: Political risk in Turkey and Russia will continue to rise. Russia is a candidate for a “black swan” event, given the eerie quiet that has prevailed as Putin devotes his fourth term to reducing domestic political instability. Brazil, on the other hand, has a 12-month window in which reform momentum can be reinforced, reducing whatever spike in risk occurs in the aftermath of the ruling coalition’s completion of pension reform. Canada: Election Post-Mortem Prime Minister Justin Trudeau returned to power at the head of a minority government in Canada’s federal election (Chart 17). The New Democratic Party (NDP) lost 15 seats from the last election, but will have a greater role in parliament as the Liberals will need its support to pass key agenda items (and a formal governing coalition is possible). The NDP’s result would have been even worse if not for its last-minute surge in the polls after the election debates and Trudeau’s “blackface” scandal. Chart 17Liberals Need The New Democrats Now The Conservative Party won the popular vote but only 121 seats in parliament, leaving the western provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan aggrieved. The Bloc Québécois, the Quebec nationalist party, gained 22 seats to become the third-largest party in the House. Energy investment faces headwinds in the near-term. The Liberal Party will face resistance from the Left over the Trans Mountain pipeline. Trudeau will not necessarily have to sacrifice the pipeline to appease the NDP. He may be able to work with Conservatives to advance the pipeline while working with the NDP on the rest of his agenda. But on the whole the election result is the worst-case scenario for the oil sector and political questions will have to be resolved before Canada can take advantage of its position as a heavy crude producer near the U.S. Gulf refineries in an era in which Venezuela is collapsing and Saudi Arabia is exposed to geopolitical risk and attacks. More broadly, the Liberals will continue to endorse a more expansive fiscal policy than expected, given Canada’s low budget deficits and the need to prevent minor parties from eating away at the Liberal Party’s seat count in future. Bottom Line: The Liberal Party failed to maintain its single-party majority. Trudeau’s reliance on left-wing parties in parliament may prove market-negative for the Canadian energy sector, though that is not a forgone conclusion. Over the longer term the sector has a brighter future.   Matt Gertken Geopolitical Strategist mattg@bcaresearch.com Ekaterina Shtrevensky Research Analyst ekaterinas@bcaresearch.com Appendix GeoRisk Indicator U.K.: GeoRisk Indicator France: GeoRisk Indicator Germany: GeoRisk Indicator Spain: GeoRisk Indicator Italy: GeoRisk Indicator Canada: GeoRisk Indicator Russia: GeoRisk Indicator Turkey: GeoRisk Indicator Brazil: GeoRisk Indicator Taiwan: GeoRisk Indicator Korea: GeoRisk Indicator What's On The Geopolitical Radar? Section III: Geopolitical Calendar

Aspectos destacados Hay una disminución tentativa del riesgo geopolítico: un Brexit ordenado o la ausencia de Brexit es el resultado final más probable y las conversaciones entre EE. UU. y China se están acercando. Los riesgos geopolíticos pendientes todavía justifican cautela sobre las acciones globales en el corto plazo. La inestabilidad interna y externa en Arabia Saudita, cualquier persistencia estadounidense con sanciones de máxima presión sobre Irán y la inestabilidad doméstica en Irak representan un riesgo para el suministro mundial de petróleo. Tomar posiciones largas en crudo al contado y en GBP/JPY. Análisis Gráfico 1 Un descenso tentativo del riesgo geopolítico Un descenso tentativo del riesgo geopolítico Un descenso tentativo del riesgo geopolítico Nuestras opiniones sobre Brexit y las conversaciones comerciales entre EE. UU. y China se están alineando, lo que resulta en una disminución tentativa del riesgo geopolítico (Gráfico 1). El parlamento británico aún debe ratificar el acuerdo de salida de Boris Johnson, negociado laboriosamente con la UE en una cumbre sorpresa esta semana. Es posible que no tenga los votos. Si fracasa, entonces tendrá una base para solicitar una extensión del plazo del Brexit hasta el 31 de octubre. Pero está claro que la UE está dispuesta a permitir compromisos para evitar que una salida sin acuerdo agrave la desaceleración de la economía europea. Un Brexit ordenado es el resultado final (o la ausencia de Brexit si unas elecciones y un nuevo referéndum así lo decidieran). Estamos eliminando el objetivo de $1.30 en nuestra apuesta larga sobre GBP/USD a la luz de estos acontecimientos y tomando posiciones largas en GBP/JPY. De manera similar, aunque persiste la incertidumbre sobre las relaciones EE. UU.-China, está claro que el presidente Trump es sensible al impacto de la recesión manufacturera y al riesgo de una recesión general sobre sus perspectivas de reelección. Por lo tanto, busca una tregua y está retrasando aranceles. China está recíprocamente respondiendo mínimamente para evitar un colapso en las relaciones. El aumento de aranceles del 15 de diciembre será aplazado y, si una tregua no mejora las perspectivas económicas, esperamos que Trump lleve a cabo algún retroceso de aranceles con el pretexto de que las conversaciones “están mostrando avances”. Sin embargo, no esperamos un acuerdo comercial bilateral ni una eliminación total de los aranceles. Y otros factores (como riesgos políticos en la Gran China) aún podrían descarrilar el proceso. Los riesgos geopolíticos pendientes todavía justifican cautela sobre las acciones globales en el corto plazo. Estos riesgos incluyen un colapso en las conversaciones EE. UU.-China (por ejemplo, debido a Hong Kong, Taiwán o la carrera tecnológica) y el ascenso de Elizabeth Warren como favorita en las primeras primarias del Partido Demócrata. También existe el riesgo de otro shock en el precio del petróleo originado en Oriente Medio, que discutimos en este informe. Las secuelas de Abqaiq Ha sido un verano geopolíticamente agitado en Oriente Medio (Diagrama 1). Aunque hubo muchas advertencias, los ataques con drones y misiles del 14 de septiembre contra la infraestructura de Saudi Aramco fueron la gran explosión: eliminaron 5.7 mm b/d de suministros de crudo de la noche a la mañana (Gráfico 2). Los ataques fueron significativos no solo por su impacto en los mercados petroleros globales, sino también porque expusieron la renuencia de EE. UU. y Arabia Saudita a entablar una confrontación militar a gran escala con Irán. Es demasiado pronto para declarar que se han alcanzado las tensiones máximas en el Golfo Pérsico. Diagrama 1 Cronología: Fuegos artificiales veraniegos en el Golfo Pérsico Por todo el Medio Oriente Por todo el Medio Oriente Gráfico 2 Cerrar el estrecho de Ormuz sería el mayor shock petrolero de la historia Por todo Oriente Medio Por todo Oriente Medio Es demasiado pronto para declarar que se han alcanzado las tensiones máximas en el Golfo Pérsico. El ataque del 11 de octubre contra un petrolero iraní en el Mar Rojo y los informados ciberataques estadounidenses contra medios iraníes bien podrían marcar la “venganza limitada” que esperábamos. No obstante, los eventos del mes pasado descubrieron vulnerabilidades que sugieren que, incluso si EE. UU. y sus aliados del Golfo retroceden, el riesgo geopolítico permanecerá elevado. Gráfico 3 Los saudíes son derrochadores en gasto en defensa Alrededor del Oriente Medio Alrededor del Oriente Medio El resultado más obvio del ataque del 14 de septiembre es la constatación de cuán vulnerable es Arabia Saudita frente a ataques de sus enemigos regionales. A pesar de ser el tercer país que más gasta en defensa en el mundo —y el primero en relación con el PIB (Gráfico 3)—, Arabia Saudita fue incapaz de proteger su infraestructura crítica. Por ello, el príncipe heredero Mohamed bin Salman (MBS) seguramente enfrentará presión interna. Tras cinco años, Arabia Saudita tiene poco que mostrar de su guerra en Yemen, aparte de una crisis humanitaria que ha dañado su posición internacional. En cambio, la operación ha sido una carga para las finanzas del reino y una molestia para la seguridad en las provincias del suroeste de Najrán, Jizán y Asir, donde los hutíes aliados de Irán han llevado a cabo ataques regulares contra infraestructuras petroleras y aeropuertos. Parte del descontento interno se aliviará si la guerra en Yemen se rebaja de categoría o se resuelve. Arabia Saudita aceptó recientemente la rama de olivo extendida por los hutíes y, según se informa, está en conversaciones para desescalar. Pero esto no eliminará por completo la incertidumbre interna. Después de todo, otras iniciativas de MBS —en Siria, en Irak y en sus gestiones ante EE. UU.— también están en peligro. La teoría de la conspiración en torno al asesinato del 29 de septiembre del general Abdulaziz al-Faghem, el antiguo guardaespaldas personal del rey Salman, es un ejemplo. Se rumorea que el rey se enfureció al enterarse de la captura por parte del movimiento hutí, el 28 de septiembre, de tres brigadas militares saudíes, y decidió revocar el título del príncipe heredero, nombrando en su lugar al hermano sudairi más joven, el príncipe Ahmed bin Abdulaziz.1 El plan habría sido supuestamente descubierto, lo que resultó en el asesinato del general al-Faghem.2 Todo esto es pura especulación y consideramos altamente dudosa la idea de la remoción de MBS. La aparición conjunta del rey y del príncipe heredero durante la visita del presidente Vladimir Putin al reino a principios de esta semana debería disipar la especulación sobre un golpe palaciego en preparación. No obstante, el asesinato en sí es extremadamente preocupante y refuerza motivos independientes de inquietud sobre la estabilidad interna. Gráfico 4 La diversificación impaciente amenaza la estabilidad interna La diversificación apresurada amenaza la estabilidad interna La diversificación apresurada amenaza la estabilidad interna La búsqueda de la agenda de reformas saudí, “Visión 2030,” se basa, ante todo, en la consolidación del poder en manos de MBS y su facción. El nombramiento del hijo del rey Salman, el príncipe Abdulaziz, como ministro de Energía fue motivado por el deseo de acelerar la oferta pública inicial de la gigante estatal petrolera Saudi Aramco, que podría comenzar tan pronto como en noviembre. Esto fue precedido por el nombramiento de Yasir Al-Rumayyan, jefe del fondo soberano y cercano a MBS, como presidente de Aramco. Además, se informa que saudíes adinerados —algunos de los cuales fueron detenidos en el Ritz Carlton en noviembre de 2017— están siendo presionados para comprar participaciones en la OPI pendiente. Aunque desvincular la economía saudí del crudo es la mejor medida para la estabilidad a largo plazo (Gráfico 4), la transición amenazará la estabilidad interna. Mientras tanto, el conflicto con Irán está lejos de resolverse. Conclusión: Los ataques con drones del 14 de septiembre contra infraestructuras petroleras clave saudíes revelaron tanto la renuencia de Arabia Saudita como la de EE. UU. a emprender acciones militares y una confrontación total con Irán. Esto aumentará las dudas sobre la capacidad del reino para defenderse. Además, Arabia Saudita sigue siendo vulnerable a presiones internas mientras MBS se esfuerza por mantener la consolidación de su poder en los últimos años y persigue Visión 2030. La inestabilidad interna o externa en Arabia Saudita representa un riesgo para el suministro mundial de petróleo. La economía de resistencia de Irán puede soportar la máxima presión de Trump Gráfico 5 La economía de Irán está sintiendo el impacto La economía de Irán siente el golpe La economía de Irán siente el golpe En el otro lado del Golfo Pérsico, los iraníes muestran una mayor tolerancia al dolor que sus enemigos. La economía está sufriendo bajo las sanciones paralizantes de EE. UU., con exportaciones en su nivel más bajo desde 2003 (Gráfico 5). El FMI espera que la economía iraní se contraiga un 9.5% este año, con una inflación anual prevista del 35.7%. Las exportaciones de petróleo, la savia de su economía, han caído un 89% interanual. No obstante, Irán domina el juego de la gallina, muestra metódicamente su capacidad para crear caos en toda la región y no ha vacilado en su postura de que el presidente Trump debe aliviar las sanciones y reincorporarse al acuerdo nuclear de 2015 si quiere entablar conversaciones bilaterales. Mientras tanto, Irán continúa reduciendo sus compromisos nucleares. El 5 de septiembre, Rohani indicó planes para abandonar completamente los compromisos de investigación y desarrollo bajo el Plan de Acción Integral Conjunto (PAIC) y comenzar a trabajar en centrifugadoras de enriquecimiento de uranio más avanzadas, que estaban limitadas al 3.7% bajo el PAIC (Tabla 1). También esperamos que Irán concrete su amenaza de retirarse del Tratado de No Proliferación Nuclear (TNP) si Trump mantiene las sanciones. Tabla 1 Irán se está alejando del acuerdo nuclear de 2015 Por todo el Medio Oriente Por todo el Medio Oriente La misma firmeza no puede demostrarse por parte de Estados Unidos o Arabia Saudita. Gráfico 6 Los estadounidenses no apoyan una guerra con Irán Por el Medio Oriente Por el Medio Oriente El presidente Trump está limitado por el riesgo de un shock petrolero inducido por Irán antes de las elecciones de 2020. Por ello, está ansioso por desescalar las tensiones con Irán. Está abandonando el campo en Siria (sobre lo cual más abajo), optando por añadir simbólicamente 1.800 tropas a Arabia Saudita con fines disuasorios. Esta postura defensiva se adopta en el contexto de la opinión pública estadounidense, que se opone a la guerra con Irán o a nuevas aventuras militares en Oriente Medio (Gráfico 6). Esto significa el desapalancamiento estratégico de EE. UU. desde Oriente Medio para desplazar su enfoque al Pacífico Asiático, donde Estados Unidos tiene una mayor prioridad en gestionar el ascenso de China. Al mismo tiempo, las negociaciones entre los saudíes y los hutíes yemeníes sugieren la falta de apetito saudí por un conflicto total con Irán, allanando el camino para una solución diplomática. Como declaró Rohani, “poner fin a la guerra en Yemen abrirá el camino para la desescalada en la región”, específicamente entre Arabia Saudita e Irán. Los saudíes han señalado abundantemente, a raíz del ataque a Abqaiq, que desean evitar una confrontación directa, particularmente dado que la administración Trump aparentemente no está dispuesta (por limitaciones electorales) a seguir proporcionando un “cheque en blanco” a MBS para llevar a cabo una política exterior agresiva. Ya los Emiratos Árabes Unidos —un actor clave en la coalición liderada por Arabia Saudita contra Yemen— se han distanciado de Riad y han buscado reducir tensiones con Irán. Recientemente redujo su compromiso con la guerra en Yemen y sostuvo reuniones de alto nivel con Irán. El asesor de seguridad nacional de los EAU, Tahnoun bin Zayed, visitó Teherán en una misión secreta, la más reciente en una serie de esfuerzos a puerta cerrada para mediar entre Arabia Saudita e Irán. Otros esfuerzos diplomáticos informados incluyen visitas de funcionarios iraquíes y paquistaníes. La incertidumbre restante es si Trump aliviará discretamente las sanciones sobre Irán, y si Irán se retirará mientras está en ventaja. Si Trump mantiene la presión máxima, Irán podría necesitar llevar a cabo nuevos ataques y alteraciones en el petróleo para amenazar la economía de Trump y fomentar el alivio de sanciones. De lo contrario, Irán, percibiendo el miedo americano y saudí, podría excederse y cometer una provocación que requiera una respuesta estadounidense mayor, reescalando así las tensiones. Aunque las limitaciones económicas y electorales de Trump sugieren que él aflojará las sanciones de forma encubierta, el apetito por el riesgo de Irán es aparentemente muy alto: Abqaiq podría haber salido terriblemente mal. También tiene la oportunidad de mostrar músculo y demostrar la inconstancia estadounidense ante la región. Esto podría llevar a un error de cálculo y a un shock petrolero más significativo del que ya se ha visto. Conclusión: Irán se ha mantenido firme en su posición mientras Estados Unidos, Arabia Saudita y sus aliados parecen estar capitulando. Tienen más que perder que ganar de un conflicto total. Pero la toma de decisiones de Irán es opaca y cualquier persistencia estadounidense con sanciones de máxima presión motivará provocaciones adicionales, escalada y interrupciones en el suministro de petróleo. ¿Haciendo a Rusia grande otra vez? Los eventos recientes en Turquía y Siria no son una sorpresa. Hemos destacado durante mucho tiempo una intervención turca más profunda en Siria como un evento regional “cisne negro”. En agosto advertimos a los clientes que la relación personal Trump-Erdogan no salvaría a Turquía de las sanciones estadounidenses inminentes. En septiembre advertimos que la prima de riesgo geopolítico turca había colapsado, según nuestro indicador GeoRisk basado en el mercado, y que este colapso seguramente se revertiría de manera importante, enviando a la lira a la baja. Al cierre de este informe, los turcos han declarado una tregua para evitar sanciones, pero nada es seguro. Putin ha aprovechado la oportunidad para capitalizar el retroceso de EE. UU. Si Turquía es la perdedora, ¿quién es la ganadora? Primero, Trump, que se beneficia de cumplir una promesa de campaña de reducir la implicación estadounidense en guerras extranjeras, una postura que finalmente será recompensada (o al menos no castigada) por un público cansado de guerras. Segundo, Irán y Rusia, los principales aliados de Siria, que han invertido mucho en mantener el régimen de Bashar al-Assad durante la guerra civil y ahora enfrentan la retirada estadounidense y tensiones elevadas con los aliados y socios de la región como resultado. Irán se beneficia al poder ampliar su arco estratégico, el llamado “Creciente Chiíta”, hasta el mar Mediterráneo. Rusia se beneficia al solidificar su estatus recuperado como actor principal en Oriente Medio —una indicación de la multipolaridad global. El presidente Vladimir Putin ha aprovechado la oportunidad para capitalizar el retroceso de EE. UU. con visitas oficiales tanto a Arabia Saudita como a los EAU esta semana. Prometió tanto lazos económicos más fuertes como la capacidad de mediar en el poder regional. En el frente económico, el Fondo Ruso de Inversión Directa (RDIF) eligió Arabia Saudita como sede de su primera oficina extranjera, señalando su interés en la región. Ya aprobó 25 proyectos conjuntos con inversiones valoradas en más de $2,5 mil millones. También se hablan de proyectos RDIF-Aramco en el sector de servicios petroleros por más de $1.000 millones y proyectos de conversión de petróleo y gas por más de $2.000 millones. Además, RDIF firmó múltiples acuerdos por $1,4 mil millones con socios emiratíes. Gráfico 7 Rusia ha estado cumpliendo con los recortes de OPEP 2.0 Rusia Ha Estado Cumpliendo Con Los Recortes De La OPEP 2.0 Rusia Ha Estado Cumpliendo Con Los Recortes De La OPEP 2.0 Lo más importante es que saudíes y rusos comparten el mismo objetivo de apoyar los precios globales del petróleo y han estado gestionando conjuntamente la oferta de OPEP 2.0 desde 2017 (Gráfico 7). El enfoque de Rusia en la región se centra en aumentar su influencia estratégica en todos los frentes. Gráfico 8 Erdogan está jugando con las preocupaciones turcas sobre los refugiados sirios Alrededor de Oriente Medio Alrededor de Oriente Medio Aunque los aliados de Rusia incluyen a Irán y Siria —rivales de Arabia Saudita—, se ha presentado como un socio pragmático para otras potencias, incluidas Turquía e incluso los saudíes y los estados del Golfo. Como tal, el Kremlin tiene influencia en ambos lados de la división regional, dándole el potencial de fungir como mediador de poder. Sin embargo, cualquier compra saudí del sistema de defensa ruso S-400, largamente negociada, inquietaría a Estados Unidos. Turquía corre el riesgo de sufrir sanciones estadounidenses por la compra del mismo sistema.3 EE. UU. podría estar dispuesto a tolerar cierta influencia rusa incrementada en Oriente Medio, pero un acuerdo de defensa podría ser su línea roja. La administración Trump aún empuña el garrote de las sanciones económicas. La creciente influencia rusa se extiende más allá de los estados del Golfo. La retirada estadounidense del noreste de Siria la semana pasada y la invasión turca son un regalo para los rusos. Ahora son la única gran potencia externa involucrada en Siria. Han abrazado esta posición, colocándose como mediadores entre el régimen sirio, con el que están aliados, y Turquía, así como con el archienemigo turco, los kurdos, que ahora carecen de apoyo estadounidense y deben recurrir a Siria y Rusia para algún tipo de arreglo que los proteja. Rusia, por tanto, ha consolidado su regreso como jugador estratégico en la región, tras su intervención inicial en Siria en 2015. La incursión de Turquía en Siria es un intento del presidente Erdogan de enfrentarse a los kurdos sirios curtidos en batalla y evitar una frontera continua controlada por kurdos con Siria, además de distraer de su debilitada posición doméstica. Está esforzándose por ganar apoyo apelando a preocupaciones turcas más amplias sobre los refugiados sirios en Turquía (Gráfico 8). La intervención buscará crear un espacio para que los refugiados sean ubicados en el lado sirio de la frontera. Sin embargo, dado que hay poco apoyo popular interno para una intervención militar, corre el riesgo de alienar aún más a los votantes, que ya están perdiendo la paciencia con su partido gobernante, el Partido de la Justicia y el Desarrollo (AKP). Hasta ahora, la incursión cuenta con el apoyo oficial de todos los partidos políticos de Turquía excepto del Partido Democrático de los Pueblos kurdo (HDP). Sin embargo, esto cambiará a medida que la intervención conlleve sanciones económicas occidentales, un conflicto militar prolongado y beneficios concretos limitados aparte de la retirada de refugiados. Gráfico 9 La ya vulnerable economía de Turquía sufrirá un golpe La economía de Turquía, ya vulnerable, sufrirá un golpe. La economía de Turquía, ya vulnerable, sufrirá un golpe. La economía, ya vulnerable, probablemente sufrirá un golpe (Gráfico 9). Los mercados han reaccionado a las sanciones impuestas por EE. UU. hasta ahora con un suspiro de alivio, ya que no han sido tan dañinas como podrían haber sido —por ejemplo, los bancos turcos fueron perdonados.4 Sin embargo, este es solo el primer salvo y más sanciones están en camino: el Congreso se está moviendo para imponer sanciones por su cuenta, las cuales Trump probablemente no vete. Además, la Unión Europea está siguiendo el ejemplo e imponiendo sus propias sanciones, incluidas las relativas a material militar. Volkswagen ya anunció que pospone la decisión final sobre si construir una planta de $1.100 millones en Turquía. Esto ocurre en un momento de sensibilidades ya existentes con la UE por las actividades de perforación de petróleo y gas de Turquía en aguas cercanas a Chipre. Los ministros de Asuntos Exteriores de la UE están respondiendo elaborando una lista de sanciones económicas. Estos riesgos económicos probablemente frenarán el ciclo de recorte de tasas del banco central, ya que la lira y los activos financieros sufrirán un golpe. Conclusión: El giro de EE. UU. lejos de Oriente Medio es un beneficio para Moscú, que busca mayor cooperación en el Golfo y gana influencia en Siria. Rusia se promociona como un jugador estratégico y un mediador eficaz. La incursión de Erdogan en Siria, aunque motivada por la debilidad doméstica, perjudicará a la economía turca. Mantener una postura cautelosa sobre la moneda turca y los activos de riesgo. Irak es el fulcro La posición geográfica de Irak, encajada entre Arabia Saudita e Irán, lo convierte en el epicentro de la lucha por el poder regional. A raíz de la campaña de máxima presión de la administración Trump sobre Irán, hemos destacado con frecuencia que un medio dramático de represalia iraní, sin llegar a cerrar el tránsito en el Estrecho de Ormuz, es fomentar disturbios en un Irak ya inestable. Esto sería una amenaza tanto para la estrategia estadounidense como para los suministros petroleros mundiales. Irak es el epicentro de la lucha por el poder regional. En este contexto, la visita del reverenciado clérigo chiíta iraquí Muqtada al-Sadr a Irán el 10 de septiembre, apenas cuatro días antes del ataque a Saudi Aramco en septiembre, suscita interrogantes. Sadr es el actor clave en Irak hoy y, en los últimos dos años, había adoptado una posición de independencia nacional para Irak, evitando la dependencia excesiva de Irán. Un acercamiento entre Sadr e Irán es un desarrollo doméstico negativo para Irak, que recientemente ha avanzado en reducir el control político y militar de Irán. Esto socavaría la estabilidad iraquí al aumentar las divisiones por ideología, secta, patrocinio económico y seguridad nacional. Se especula que el viaje de Sadr tenía la intención de discutir al primer ministro Adel Abdul Mahdi, percibido como débil e incapaz de manejar los diversos poderes en la escena política iraquí. Las protestas violentas que sacuden Irak desde principios de septiembre respaldan esta evaluación. Los manifestantes están motivados por el descontento con el desempleo, los servicios deficientes y la corrupción gubernamental, que se percibe que han empeorado sobre todo desde el inicio del mandato de Abdul Mahdi (Gráfico 10). Aunque Abdul Mahdi ha anunciado algunas reformas en respuesta al descontento popular, incluidas una reestructuración del gabinete y promesas de ayudas para los pobres, han hecho poco para calmar las protestas. Las demandas populares son solo una de las amenazas existenciales que enfrenta el gobierno. El segundo y potencialmente más serio riesgo es la amenaza de seguridad. Irak ha fracasado en sus intentos de integrar formalmente a las Unidades de Movilización Popular (PMU), grupos paramilitares respaldados por Irán que fueron fundamentales en la derrota del ISIS, en las fuerzas de seguridad nacionales. Esto es esencial para evitar que Irán mantenga el control directo de las fuerzas de seguridad dentro de Irak. Una mayoría del público está de acuerdo en que las PMU no deberían desempeñar un papel en la política (Gráfico 11), reflejando la tendencia subyacente que demanda autonomía iraquí frente a Irán. Gráfico 10 Aumento del descontento en Irak Alrededor del Medio Oriente Alrededor del Medio Oriente Gráfico 11 Poco apoyo a un papel político para las PMU Por todo el Medio Oriente Por todo el Medio Oriente Dado que las PMU son, en efecto, un término paraguas para ~50 grupos paramilitares predominantemente chiítas, existen divisiones internas dentro de las fuerzas que compiten por poder, legitimidad y recursos. Recientemente, han estado depurando a líderes de grupo percibidos como una amenaza para las fuerzas generales y el liderazgo superior que mantiene fuertes vínculos con Irán. Gráfico 12 Irak está dividido por afiliación política Alrededor del Medio Oriente Alrededor del Medio Oriente Esta lucha interna también refleja la lucha intra-chiíta por el poder entre los principales partidos políticos de Irak. Por un lado está el bloque conservador pro-Khamenei liderado por el ex primer ministro Nouri al-Maliki y el comandante de las PMU Hadi al-Ameri, y por otro está el líder reformista y nacionalista Muqtada al-Sadr, unido a Ammar al-Hakim. Dado que la mayoría de los iraquíes consideran que su país está dividido por afiliación política, esto representa un riesgo para la estabilidad interna (Gráfico 12). Así, incluso si el riesgo más amplio de tensiones regionales disminuye y reduce la amenaza de sabotaje a la infraestructura y el transporte petrolero, la situación doméstica actual en Irak sigue siendo inquietante. Pero dado que no vemos aún una disminución de las tensiones regionales —ya sea por la máxima presión estadounidense o por la arrogancia iraní— esta dinámica se traduce en una amenaza activa para los suministros de petróleo, con 3.4 mm b/d de exportaciones concentradas en la ciudad sureña de Basora. Conclusión: La mayor inestabilidad doméstica en Irak supone una amenaza no desdeñable para los suministros petroleros. Este riesgo se ve agravado por la ubicación de Irak como amortiguador geográfico entre los rivales regionales Irán y Arabia Saudita, y por el interés de Irán en fomentar disturbios para presionar a EE. UU. a relajar las sanciones. Conclusiones de inversión El hilo común en Oriente Medio es una amenaza persistente para el suministro mundial de petróleo tras el extraordinario ataque a Abqaiq. Primero, no se puede afirmar con confianza que Irán se abstendrá de causar nuevas interrupciones petroleras, ya que está convencido de que el apetito de conflicto del presidente Trump es pequeño (y Trump está, de hecho, limitado por el temor a un shock petrolero). Al presidente Rohani le interesa desalojar a Trump del poder, algo que un shock petrolero podría lograr, y el Líder Supremo podría incluso estar dispuesto a arriesgar un conflicto con Estados Unidos como medio para aumentar el apoyo al régimen e infundir a una nueva generación un espíritu revolucionario. Irán pierde en una guerra total, pero Teherán está convencido de que EE. UU. no tiene la voluntad de emprender una guerra total. Segundo, el interés de Rusia en la región no es generar una paz duradera sino llenar el vacío dejado por Estados Unidos y convertirse en mediador. Cualquier inestabilidad simplemente aumenta los precios del petróleo, lo cual es positivo para Rusia. Tercero, la inestabilidad de Irak está impulsada tanto por factores domésticos como internacionales. Es casi imposible diferenciar entre ambos. La arrogancia iraní podría manifestarse en sabotajes en Irak. O Irak podría desestabilizarse bajo las presiones regionales con mínima incitación iraní. De una u otra manera, la escasa capacidad de producción de reserva mundial actual podría verse afectada antes de lo esperado si se producen escaseces. Tomar posiciones largas en crudo al contado. En cuanto a las acciones, con una tregua EE. UU.-China en marcha y poca probabilidad de un Brexit sin acuerdo, vemos reforzada nuestra perspectiva cíclicamente positiva, aunque mantenemos cautela a corto plazo debido a la política interna estadounidense. En términos de enfoque de acciones, tenemos sobrepeso en acciones europeas en mercados desarrollados y en acciones del sudeste asiático en mercados emergentes.   Roukaya Ibrahim, Editora/Estratega Estrategia geopolítica RoukayaI@bcaresearch.com Notas al pie 1 La rama sudairi de la familia al-Saud está compuesta por los siete hijos del difunto rey Abdulaziz y Hussa al-Sudairi de la poderosa tribu de Najd. 2 Véase TRT World “Killing of Saudi King’s Personal Bodyguard Triggers Speculation,” 2 de octubre de 2019, disponible en https://www.trtworld.com. 3 A raíz del ataque a las instalaciones petroleras de Saudi Aramco, el presidente Putin se burló de EE. UU. recomendando que Arabia Saudita siguiera los pasos de Irán y Turquía en la compra de los sistemas de defensa aérea rusos S-300 o S-400. 4 Las penalizaciones de EE. UU. incluyen sanciones contra funcionarios actuales y anteriores del gobierno turco, un aumento de aranceles sobre las importaciones de acero turco hasta el 50 por ciento y la suspensión de las negociaciones sobre un acuerdo comercial de $100.000 millones.

Analysis on Turkey is available below. Highlights A dovish Fed or robust U.S. growth does not constitute sufficient conditions for a bull market in EM. China’s business and credit cycles are much more important factors for EM than those of the U.S. A recovery in the Chinese economy and global manufacturing is not imminent. The common signal reverberating from various financial markets is that the risks to the global business cycle are still skewed to the downside. Feature Current investor perceptions of emerging markets are mixed. Some expect EM to benefit greatly from low U.S. interest rates. These investors view even a partial trade deal between the U.S. and China as sufficient for EM to embark on a bull market. BCA’s Emerging Markets Strategy team disagrees with this narrative. We deliberated the significance of the U.S.-China confrontation to EM in our September 19 report; therefore, we will not go over this subject here. Rather, in this report we discuss some of the more common misconceptions surrounding EM currently, and infer what these mean for investment strategies. Perception 1: The share of resource sectors (materials and energy) in the EM equity benchmark has declined substantially. This along with the expanded role of consumers and consumer stocks (Alibaba, Tencent and Baidu) in EM economies and equity markets has made their share prices less exposed to the global trade cycle and commodities prices. Reality: It is true that in many EM bourses, the weight of consumer stocks has been growing. Nevertheless, their financial markets in general, and equity markets in particular, remain very sensitive to the global trade cycle and commodities prices. Chart I-1 illustrates that the aggregate EM equity index has historically been and continues to be strongly correlated with the global basic materials stock index. The latter includes mining, steel and chemical companies. Global materials stocks also exhibit a very strong correlation with Chinese banks’ share prices. Moreover, global materials stocks also exhibit a very strong correlation with Chinese banks’ share prices (Chart I-2). The rationale for the high correlation is that both mainland banks’ profits and global demand for basic materials are driven by a common factor: China’s business cycle. Chart I-1EM And Global Materials Stocks Move Together Chart I-2Chinese Bank And Global Materials Share Prices Are Highly Correlated For example, construction in China is contracting (Chart I-3), which entails both higher NPLs for Chinese banks and lower demand for basic materials. China accounts for about 50% of global consumption of industrial metals, cement and many other basic materials. Finally, EM ex-China bank stocks also correlate strongly with global basic materials share prices. The basis is as follows: Many emerging economies export raw materials, and commodities price fluctuations impact their business cycle, exports and exchange rates. Chart I-3China: Construction Activity Is Contracting Chart I-4High-Yielding EM: Currencies And Local Bond Yields Historically, in high-yielding EM markets, currency depreciation has led to higher interest rates and lower bank share prices, and vice versa (Chart I-4). Lately, EM bond yields have not risen in response to EM currency depreciation. However, we believe this correlation will soon be re-established if EM currencies continue drifting lower.  In short, China’s money/credit cycles drive not only the mainland’s business cycle, banking profits and NPLs, but also global trade and commodities prices. The latter two - via their impact on exchange rates and in turn interest rates - have historically explained credit and domestic demand cycles in high-yielding EM. Perception 2:  EM stocks are a high-beta play on the S&P 500, i.e., EM equities outperform when the S&P 500 rallies, and vice versa. Reality: Since 2012, the beta for EM equity versus the S&P 500 has often been below one (Chart I-5). Furthermore, since 2012, EM share prices often failed to outpace their DM peers during global equity rallies. Indeed, EM relative equity performance versus DM, as well as the EM ex-China currency total return index, have been closely tracking the relative performance of global cyclicals versus global defensive stocks (Chart I-6). Chart I-5EM Equities Beta To The S&P 500 Chart I-6Global Cyclicals-To-Defensives Equity Ratio And EM   In short, EM equities and currencies have been, and will remain, sensitive to the global business cycle rather than the S&P 500. Since 2012, the latter has - on several occasions - decoupled from the global manufacturing and trade cycles. Perception 3:  EM stocks, currencies and fixed-income markets are very sensitive to U.S. interest rates. Hence, a dovish Fed will lead to EM currency appreciation.  Reality: Chart I-7 reveals that EM currencies, total returns on EM local currency bonds in U.S. dollar terms and EM sovereign credit spreads do not exhibit a strong relationship with U.S. Treasury yields. U.S. interest rate expectations have a much smaller impact on EM financial markets than commonly perceived by the investment community.  Overall, U.S. interest rate expectations have a much smaller impact on EM financial markets than commonly perceived by the investment community.  Chart I-7EM And U.S. Bond Yields: No Stable Correlation Chart I-8China Cycle And EM Stocks Led U.S. Bond Yields On the contrary, the declines in U.S. bond yields in both 2015/16 and in 2018/19 were due to the growth slowdown that emanated from China/EM. The top panel of Chart I-8 illustrates that Chinese import growth rolled over in December 2017, yet U.S. bond yields rolled over in October 2018. What is more, EM share prices have been leading U.S. bond yields in recent years, not the other way around (Chart I-8, bottom panel). Perception 4:  If the U.S. avoids a recession, EM risk assets will recover. Chart I-9EM Profits Are Driven By Chinese Not U.S. Business Cycle Reality: EM per-share earnings contracted in 2012-2014 and in 2019, despite reasonably robust growth in U.S. final demand (Chart I-9, top panel). This suggests that even if the U.S. economy avoids a recession, that will not be a sufficient condition to be bullish on EM. EM corporate profits are highly driven by China’s business cycle. The bottom panel of Chart I-9 illustrates that mainland domestic industrial orders have been the key driver of EM corporate profit cycles since 2008. Perception 5:  EM equities, fixed-income markets and currencies are cheap. Reality: EM stocks are not cheap. They are fairly valued. Equity sectors with very poor fundamentals have very low multiples. Hence, they are “cheap” for a reason. These include Chinese banks, state-owned enterprises in various countries and resource companies. Equity segments with robust fundamentals are overpriced. Given that Chinese banks, state-owned enterprises in various countries, resource companies, and cyclical businesses have very large market caps, EM market-cap based equity valuation ratios are low – i.e., they appear cheap.  To remove the impact of these large market cap segments, we constructed and have been publishing the following valuation ratios: median, 20% trimmed mean and equal-sub-sector weighted (Chart I-10). Each of these is calculated based on the average of trailing and forward P/E ratios, price-to-book value, price-to-cash earnings and price-to-dividend ratios. EM equities relative to DM are not cheap either. Chart I-11 demonstrates the same ratios – median, 20% trimmed-mean and equal-sub-sector weighted values for EM versus DM. Chart I-10EM Equities Are Not Cheap Chart I-11Relative To DM EM Stocks Are Not Cheap Further, when valuations are not at extremes as in the case of EM equities at the moment, the profit cycle holds the key to share price performance over a 6 to 12-month horizon. EM earnings are presently contracting in absolute terms, and underperforming DM EPS. Two currencies that offer value are the Mexican peso and Russian ruble. Chart I-12EM Local Yields Are Low In Absolute Terms And Relative To U.S. In the fixed-income space, EM local bond yields are very low in absolute terms and relative to U.S. Treasury yields (Chart I-12). EM sovereign and corporate spreads are not wide either. As to exchange rates, the cheapest currencies are those with the worst fundamentals, such as the Argentine peso, Turkish lira and South African rand. The majority of other EM currencies are not very cheap. Two currencies that offer value are the Mexican peso and Russian ruble. Yet foreign investors are very long these currencies, and a combination of lower oil prices and portfolio outflows from broader EM will weigh on these exchange rates as well. Takeaways And Investment Strategy Chart I-13EM Currencies And Industrial Metals Prices EM risk assets and currencies exhibit the strongest correlation with global trade and commodities prices. Chart I-13 indicates that the EM ex-China currency total return index closely tracks commodities prices. This corroborates the messages from Chart I-1 on page 1 and Chart I-6 on page 4.  China’s business and credit cycles are much more important for EM than those of the U.S. A dovish Fed or strong U.S. growth are not sufficient reasons to bet on an EM bull market. A recovery in the Chinese economy and global manufacturing is not imminent. Individual EM countries’ domestic fundamentals such as return on capital, inflation, banking system health, competitiveness and politics drive individual EM performance. On these accounts, the outlook varies among EM. Readers can find analyses on specific EM economies in our Countries In-Depth page. Asset allocators should continue underweighting EM stocks, credit and currencies versus their DM counterparts.  Absolute-return investors should outright avoid EM, or trade them on the short side. Within the EM equity space, our overweights are Mexico, Russia, Central Europe, Korea ex-tech, Thailand and the UAE. Our underweights are South Africa, Indonesia, Philippines, Hong Kong, Turkey and Colombia. The path of least resistance for the U.S. dollar is up. Continue shorting the following basket of EM currencies versus the dollar: ZAR, CLP, COP, IDR, MYR, PHP and KRW. We are also short the CNY versus the greenback. As always, the list of our country allocations for local currency bonds and sovereign credit markets is available at the end of our reports – please refer to page 16. Take Cues From These Markets We suggest investors take cues from the following financial market signals. They are unequivocally sending a downbeat message for global growth and risk assets: The ratio between Sweden and Swiss non-financial stocks in common currency terms is heading south (Chart I-14). Swedish non-financials include many companies leveraged to the global industrial cycle, while Swiss non-financials are dominated by defensive stocks. Hence, the persistent decline in this ratio presages a continued deterioration in the global industrial sector. Where is the next defense line for this ratio? To reach its 2002 and 2008 nadirs, it will need to drop by another 10%. In the interim, investors should maintain a defensive posture. Chart I-14A Message From Swedish And Swiss Equities Chart I-15A Breakdown In The Making? U.S. FAANG stocks appear to be cracking below their 200-day moving average. The relative performance of global cyclical versus global defensive stocks is relapsing below the three-year moving average that served as a support last December (Chart I-15). U.S. FAANG stocks appear to be cracking below their 200-day moving average (Chart I-16). If this support gives, the next one will be about 17% below current levels. Finally, U.S. high-beta share prices are on the verge of a breakdown (Chart I-17). The next technical support is 10% below current levels. Chart I-16FAANG Are On The Support Line Chart I-17U.S. High-Beta Stocks Are On The Edge Bottom Line: The common message reverberating from these financial markets corroborates our fundamental analysis that a global business cycle recovery is not imminent, and that global risk assets in general, and EM financial markets in particular, are at risk of selling off further. Arthur Budaghyan Chief Emerging Markets Strategist arthurb@bcaresearch.com   Turkey: Is The Mean-Reversion Rally Over? Turkish financial markets have rebounded to their respective falling trend lines (Chart II-1). Are they set to break out or is a setback looming? Chart II-1Back To Falling Trend Chart II-2TRY Is Cheap Pros The economy has undergone a considerable real adjustment and many excesses have been purged: The current account balance has turned positive as imports have collapsed. Going forward, lower oil prices are likely to help the nation’s current account dynamics. The lira has become cheap (Chart II-2).  According to the real effective exchange rate based on unit labor costs, the currency is one standard deviation below its fair value. Core and headline inflation have fallen, allowing the central bank to cut interest rates aggressively. However, the exchange rate still holds the key: if the currency depreciates anew, local bonds yields will rise and the ability of the central bank to reduce borrowing costs further will diminish. Finally, private credit and broad money growth have decelerated substantially and are contracting in inflation-adjusted terms (Chart II-3). Chart II-3Money & Credit Have Bottomed Chart II-4Banks Have Been Aggressively Buying Government Bonds The recent gap between broad money and private credit growth has been due to commercial banks buying government bonds (Chart II-4). When a commercial bank purchases a security from non-banks, a new deposit/new unit of money supply is created. Banks’ purchases of government bonds en masse have capped domestic bond yields. However, if pursued aggressively, such monetary expansion could weigh on the currency’s value.   Cons Presently, potential sources of macro vulnerability in Turkey are: Foreign debt obligations (FDOs) – which are calculated as the sum of short-term claims, interest payments and amortization over the next 12 months – are at $168 billion, which is sizable. The annual current account surplus has reached only $4 billion and is sufficient to cover only 2.5% of FDOs, assuming the capital and financial account balance will be zero. Clearly, Turkey needs to both roll over most of its foreign debt coming due and attract foreign capital to finance a potential expansion in its imports if its domestic demand is to recover. Critically, $20 billion of net FX reserves, excluding gold, swap lines with foreign central banks and net of domestic banking and non-banking corporations’ foreign exchange deposits, are not adequate either to cover foreign debt obligations. Even though headline and core inflation measures have fallen, wage inflation remains rampant (Chart II-5). If wage inflation does not drop substantially very soon, rapidly rising unit labor costs will feed into inflation leading to negative ramifications for the exchange rate. This is especially crucial in Turkey given President Erdogan has undermined the central bank’s credibility and is resorting to populist measures to revive his popularity. Finally, Turkish banks remain under-provisioned. Currently, the banking regulator is requiring banks to boost their non-performing loans (NPL) ratio to 6.3% of total loans.This a far cry from the 2001 episode when the NPL ratio shot up to 25% (Chart II-6).   Even though interest rates rose much more in 2001 than last year, the private credit penetration in the economy was very low in the early 2000s. A higher credit penetration usually implies weaker borrowers have borrowed money and heralds a higher NPL ratio. Typically, following a credit boom and bust, it is natural for the NPL ratio to exceed 10%. We do not think Turkish banks stocks, having rallied a lot from their lows, are pricing in such a scenario. Chart II-5Surging Wages Are A Risk Chart II-6NPL Ratio Is Unrealistic Investment Recommendation We recommend both absolute-return investors and asset allocators not to chase Turkish financial markets higher. Renewed market volatility lies ahead. Given we expect foreign capital outflows from EM, Turkish companies and banks will encounter difficulties in rolling over their external debt and attracting foreign capital into domestic markets. This will produce a new downleg in the exchange rate. In turn, currency depreciation will weigh on performance of local bonds as well as sovereign and corporate credit. Stay underweight.   Andrija Vesic, Research Analyst andrijav@bcaresearch.com Footnotes Equities Recommendations Currencies, Credit And Fixed-Income Recommendations

Aspectos destacados El apoyo del presidente Trump entre los republicanos y la falta de evidencia concluyente impedirán su destitución. El riesgo comercial aumentará si la aprobación de Trump se beneficia de los procedimientos de juicio político y la economía estadounidense es resiliente. El riesgo político en la Europa continental está disminuyendo. Sin embargo, ojo con Rusia y Turquía, y mantener posiciones cortas en gilts a 10 años frente a 2 años. Una nueva elección en España puede no resolver el estancamiento político. Anotar ganancias en nuestra posición corta en el Hang Seng de Hong Kong. Análisis Los procedimientos de juicio político contra el presidente de los EE. UU., Donald Trump, el audaz ataque iraní a Arabia Saudita, la persistencia del riesgo de guerra comercial y datos adicionales débiles de China y Europa sugieren que los inversores deberían mantenerse adversos al riesgo por ahora. En concreto, el juicio político de Trump podría impulsarlo a buscar distracciones en el extranjero: abandonar la retirada táctica de una política exterior y comercial agresiva que apenas había comenzado. El riesgo geopolítico fuera de los focos calientes está cayendo, especialmente en Europa. El riesgo de un Brexit sin acuerdo se ha desplomado en línea con nuestras expectativas. Italia y Alemania han agradado a los mercados al proporcionar cierto estímulo fiscal sin populismo. En Francia, la popularidad del presidente Emmanuel Macron se está recuperando. Y, como discutimos en este informe, la elección en España no sumará un factor de miedo significativo. A continuación presentamos un nuevo Indicador de GeoRiesgo, revisamos la señal de todos nuestros indicadores del último mes y luego nos centramos en España. Teman la política estadounidense, no el juicio político La decisión de los demócratas de la Cámara de acusar a Trump da a los inversores otra razón para mantenerse cautelosos con los activos de riesgo. ¿Por qué no ser alcistas? Es cierto que el juicio político sin evidencia concluyente aumenta las posibilidades de reelección de Trump, lo que es positivo para el mercado en comparación con una victoria demócrata. El presidente Trump es prácticamente invulnerable a las medidas demócratas de juicio político mientras los republicanos continúen apoyándolo en un 91% (Gráfico 1). Los senadores no desertarán en estas circunstancias, por lo que Trump no será destituido del cargo. Trump es invulnerable a las medidas de juicio político siempre que el apoyo republicano se mantenga alto. Además, la transcripción de su conversación telefónica con el presidente ucraniano Volodímir Zelenskiy no produjo una bomba informativa: no hay un quid pro quo explícito en el que el presidente Trump sugiera que retendrá la ayuda militar a Ucrania a cambio de una investigación sobre las acciones del exvicepresidente Joe Biden y su hijo Hunter en relación con Ucrania. Cualquier conducta indebida es, por tanto, debatible, a la espera de pruebas adicionales. Esto incluye evidencia más allá de la “denuncia del informante”, que sugiere que el equipo de Trump intentó sofocar la transcripción de la mencionada llamada telefónica. El punto es que las bases del partido republicano y el Senado son los árbitros finales del debate. El problema es que el escándalo y el juicio político probablemente seguirán alimentando la volatilidad del mercado de acciones (Gráfico 2). Los demócratas de la Cámara podrían sacar nuevas pruebas ahora que están totalmente centrados en el juicio político y en escuchar a denunciantes de la comunidad de inteligencia. Gráfico 1 Los republicanos aún no están dispuestos a iniciar un juicio político contra Trump Juicio político, guerra comercial y una estancia en España – Actualización GeoRisk: 27 de septiembre de 2019 Juicio político, guerra comercial y una estancia en España – Actualización GeoRisk: 27 de septiembre de 2019 El juicio político también tiene un impacto negativo en el mercado a través de las primarias del Partido Demócrata. Elizabeth Warren aún no ha desplazado a Biden en las primeras primarias demócratas. Gráfico 2 Los procedimientos de juicio político probablemente aumentarán la volatilidad Los procedimientos de juicio político probablemente aumentarán Vol Los procedimientos de juicio político probablemente aumentarán Vol Si lo hace, tendrá un impacto negativo considerable en los mercados de acciones, ya que el presidente Trump seguirá siendo solo ligeramente favorito para ganar la reelección. En cualquier caso, esta elección será extremadamente reñida, tendrá implicaciones significativas para la política fiscal y la regulación, y por lo tanto generará mucha incertidumbre entre ahora y noviembre de 2020. El episodio del informante, si acaso, ha agravado esta incertidumbre. Como se mencionó al principio del informe, si los procedimientos de juicio político alguna vez ganan tracción, podrían impulsar a Trump a buscar distracciones en el extranjero: abandonar la retirada táctica de la política exterior y comercial agresiva que apenas había comenzado. Por último, la reelección de Trump, aunque más favorable para el mercado que la alternativa y probablemente desencadene un repunte de alivio, no es tan alcista como parece. Las políticas de Trump en un segundo mandato no serán tan favorables para las empresas como en el primer mandato. Liberado de preocupaciones electorales pero aún enfrentando una Cámara dominada por los demócratas, Trump no podrá recortar impuestos, pero probablemente llevará a cabo su política exterior y comercial de manera aún más agresiva. Esta no es una perspectiva positiva para el mercado, independientemente de si es beneficiosa para los intereses de EE. UU. a largo plazo. Conclusión: La aprobación del presidente Trump entre los votantes republicanos es el dato crítico. A menos que abandonen la fe en él, el Senado no cambiará de postura, y el apoyo a Trump incluso puede aumentar. Pero esto no es motivo para volverse alcista. El próximo año verá inevitablemente un espectáculo horrendo de disfunción política estadounidense que conducirá a volatilidad y potencialmente a conflictos en escalada en el extranjero. Presentamos… Nuestro Indicador de Riesgo Comercial Sino-Estadounidense Esta semana presentamos un nuevo Indicador de GeoRiesgo para la guerra comercial EE. UU.-China (Gráfico 3). El indicador se basa en el mejor rendimiento de las acciones de mercados desarrollados en general en relación con esas mismas acciones que tienen alta exposición a China, y en el crecimiento del crédito privado de China (“financiación social total”). Como muestra el comentario de nuestro gráfico, el indicador corresponde con el curso de los acontecimientos a lo largo de la guerra comercial. También se correlaciona bastante bien con medidas alternativas de riesgo comercial, como el recuento de términos clave en los informes de noticias. Gráfico 3 El riesgo comercial aumentará a partir de ahora Juicio político, guerra comercial y una estancia en España – GeoRisk Update: 27 de septiembre de 2019 Juicio político, guerra comercial y una estancia en España – GeoRisk Update: 27 de septiembre de 2019 Al cierre de esta edición, nuestro indicador sugiere que el riesgo relacionado con la guerra comercial está aumentando. En el último mes Trump ha realizado una retirada táctica en política exterior y comercial para controlar los riesgos económicos antes de las elecciones. Nuestro indicador sugiere que esto ya está descontado. El problema es que el riesgo de reelección de Trump permite a China exigir condiciones más duras, lo que se confirma tentativamente por la detención de un empleado de FedEx por parte de China (señalando que puede perjudicar a empresas estadounidenses) y la cancelación de una gira por granjas en Montana y Nebraska. No fueron eventos mayores, pero sugieren que China percibe la vacilación de Trump y está pasando a la ofensiva en las negociaciones. Los negociadores principales se reunirán a principios de octubre para una ronda de conversaciones muy significativa. Si estas resultan en declaraciones públicas de progreso sustantivo —y en evidencia de que el borrador casi terminado de abril se está completando— podrían preparar una cumbre entre los presidentes Xi Jinping y Donald Trump en noviembre, en la cumbre de la APEC en Santiago de Chile. En ese caso tendríamos que elevar nuestra probabilidad del 40% de que se concluya un acuerdo antes de noviembre de 2020. Si las conversaciones no concluyen con resultados públicos positivos, los inversores no deberían tomarlo a la ligera. Las negociaciones del cuarto trimestre (Q4) son posiblemente el último intento de llegar a un acuerdo antes de las elecciones estadounidenses. Si no hay noticias de una cumbre Trump-Xi, confirmará nuestra perspectiva pesimista sobre la fase final. Es poco probable que las conversaciones comerciales EE. UU.-China produzcan un acuerdo duradero. En última instancia, no creemos que las conversaciones entre EE. UU. y China produzcan un acuerdo concluyente y duradero que elimine sustancialmente el riesgo y la incertidumbre de la guerra comercial. Esto es especialmente cierto si la presión de los mercados financieros y la economía —en medio del relajamiento de la política monetaria global— no es lo suficientemente intensa como para obligar a los responsables a comprometerse. Pero vigilaremos de cerca cualquier señal de que la retirada táctica de Trump está sobreviviendo a los procedimientos de juicio político y provocando reciprocidad por parte de China, ya que esto apuntaría a una perspectiva más optimista. Conclusión: Mientras la calificación de aprobación del presidente se beneficie de los procedimientos de juicio político del Partido Demócrata, y la economía estadounidense sea resiliente, como esperamos, Trump puede evitar cualquier capitulación a un acuerdo superficial con China. El riesgo comercial podría aumentar a partir de aquí. En la misma línea, los procedimientos de juicio político podrían eventualmente forzar a Trump a cambiar de táctica una vez más y adoptar una postura mucho más agresiva en asuntos exteriores. Si el juicio político gana tracción, o se desarrolla un mercado bajista, podría volverse más agresivo que en cualquier otra etapa de su presidencia, y esta agresión podría dirigirse a China (o Irán, Corea del Norte, Venezuela u otro país). El riesgo para nuestra visión es que China acepte la posición comercial de Trump para conseguir un respiro para su economía y las dos partes acuerden un pacto en la cumbre de la APEC. El riesgo europeo cae, mientras que el riesgo ruso y turco difícilmente puede caer más En otros lugares, nuestras medidas de riesgo geopolítico indican una disminución de las tensiones en varios mercados desarrollados y emergentes (ver Apéndice). En Alemania, el riesgo puede subir un poco desde los niveles actuales pero está mayormente contenido; esto no ocurre en el Reino Unido más allá del muy corto plazo. En Rusia y Turquía, el riesgo difícilmente puede disminuir más. Tómese, para empezar, Alemania, donde el riesgo político disminuyó después de que la coalición gobernante de la canciller Angela Merkel acordara un paquete de gasto fiscal de 50.000 millones de euros para combatir el cambio climático. Este acuerdo confirma nuestra valoración de que, si bien la política alemana es fundamentalmente estable, la administración será reactiva más que proactiva al aplicar estímulos. Europa tendrá que esperar a una crisis global, o a un nuevo gobierno alemán, para un verdadero “cambio de juego” en la política fiscal alemana. Quizá el Partido Verde, que se dispara en las encuestas y que empujó a Merkel a este gasto climático, posibilite tal desarrollo. Pero es demasiado pronto para decirlo. Mientras tanto, los años de transición de Merkel y factores externos evitarán que el riesgo político desaparezca por completo. Vemos las probabilidades de aranceles estadounidenses a los coches en no más del 30%, al menos mientras persistan las tensiones sino-estadounidenses. Por el contrario, los riesgos políticos del Reino Unido no están contenidos a pesar de una mejora notable este mes. La decisión del Tribunal Supremo del 25 de septiembre de anular la suspensión del parlamento ordenada por el primer ministro Boris Johnson clavó otro clavo en el ataúd de su amenaza de sacar al país de la UE sin un acuerdo. Fue una maniobra para extraer concesiones de la UE que ha fracasado por completo.1 Dado que fue la amenaza más creíble de una salida sin acuerdo que probablemente se pueda montar, su fracaso debería marcar una disminución del riesgo político para el Reino Unido y sus vecinos. Sin embargo, paradójicamente, nuestro indicador GeoRisk no corroboró la fuerte caída de la libra durante el verano y ahora, cuando la opción sin acuerdo está descartada, ha dejado de caer. La razón es que la tasa de depreciación de la libra permaneció relativamente plana durante el verano, mientras que el PMI manufacturero del Reino Unido —una de las variables explicativas de nuestro indicador— cayó mucho más rápido al desplomarse la manufactura global. Como resultado, nuestro indicador registró esto como una disminución del riesgo político. El mundo temía más una recesión que un Brexit sin acuerdo, y esto resultó ser el llamado correcto por parte del mercado. Pero la situación se invertirá si el crecimiento global mejora y se convocan nuevas elecciones británicas, ya que estas podrían revivir el riesgo de una salida sin acuerdo, especialmente si los conservadores regresan con una mayoría estrecha bajo una coalición. La verdad es que la saga del Brexit está lejos de terminar y el Reino Unido se enfrenta a una elección, a la posible llegada de un gobierno de izquierdas y, en última instancia, a un populismo resiliente una vez que quede claro que ni salir ni quedarse en la UE resolverán la angustia de la clase media. Nuestra recomendación larga en GBP-USD es necesariamente táctica y venderemos cuando llegue a $1.30. En los mercados emergentes, Rusia y Turquía han visto caer el riesgo político hasta niveles tan bajos que resulta difícil imaginar que baje más sin que algún desarrollo político provoque un aumento. Según nuestra última valoración, Turquía está casi segura de ver un pico en el riesgo en el futuro cercano. Esto podría ocurrir por la formación de una alianza política doméstica contra el presidente Recep Erdogan o por el aumento de riesgos externos centrados en el frágil acuerdo EE. UU.-Turquía sobre Siria. Las tensiones con Irán también podrían provocar shocks en el precio del petróleo que debiliten la economía y envalentonen a la oposición. En cuanto a Rusia, nuestro caso base es que continuará centrando sus problemas internos al descuidar los objetivos exteriores, lo que ayuda a mantener bajo el riesgo geopolítico. Con la política estadounidense en crisis y un posible conflicto con Irán en el horizonte, Moscú no tiene razones para atraer atención hostil hacia sí. No obstante, Moscú ha demostrado ser impredecible y agresivo durante la era Putin, no tiene una lealtad real hacia Trump y podría ser víctima de la ira de los demócratas, y tiene incentivos para avivar las llamas en Oriente Medio y la región Asia-Pacífico. Así que esperar que el riesgo geopolítico baje mucho más es tentar al destino. Conclusión: El riesgo político europeo está disminuyendo, pero el estatus de Merkel como figura en transición y la guerra comercial hacen que el riesgo alemán tenga probabilidades de aumentar desde aquí a pesar de fundamentos políticos estables. El Reino Unido sigue afrontando un riesgo político elevado en términos generacionales a pesar de la feliz conclusión del riesgo de no-acuerdo este verano. Vender en corto gilts a 10 años frente a 2 años. Rusia debería mantenerse tranquila por ahora, pero Turquía está casi asegurada a experimentar un aumento del riesgo político. España: la elección podría sorprender, pero los riesgos son bajos Los votantes españoles acudirán a las urnas el 10 de noviembre por cuarta vez en cuatro años después de que los líderes políticos no lograran un acuerdo para formar un gobierno permanente. El Partido Socialista Obrero Español (PSOE) ha ejercido como gobierno en funciones tras ganar 123 de los 350 escaños en las elecciones anticipadas de abril. Una nueva elección en España no resolverá el actual estancamiento político. El primer ministro y líder del PSOE, Pedro Sánchez, no logró ser confirmado en julio y desde entonces ha intentado cerrar un acuerdo de gobierno con el partido de izquierdas y anti-establecimiento Podemos. Sin embargo, el PSOE no busca una coalición completa sino meramente apoyo externo para seguir gobernando en minoría. Por tanto, solo está ofreciendo a Podemos agencias no ministeriales (en lugar de puestos de alto nivel en el gabinete) en las negociaciones, dejando a Podemos y a otros partidos listos para unas elecciones. El resultado de las próximas elecciones puede no diferir mucho de las de abril. El elector español no está demandando cambios. El desempleo y el subempleo han ido disminuyendo, y el crecimiento salarial ha sido positivo desde 2014 (Gráfico 4). En las encuestas de opinión, el apoyo a los distintos partidos no ha variado significativamente (Gráfico 5, panel superior). El PSOE sigue liderando con una diferencia considerable. Gráfico 4 El elector español no está exigiendo cambios El votante español no exige cambios El votante español no exige cambios Sin embargo, la elección aumentará la incertidumbre en un momento inoportuno y podría producir sorpresas. El apoyo al PSOE ha disminuido ligeramente desde finales de julio, cuando las negociaciones con Podemos empezaron a desmoronarse. Gráfico 5 Poco cambio en las encuestas... No hay mucho cambio en las encuestas... No hay mucho cambio en las encuestas... Incluso si PSOE y Podemos forman un pacto de gobierno, su apoyo popular combinado no es significativamente mayor que el apoyo combinado de los tres principales partidos conservadores. Estos son el Partido Popular, Ciudadanos y Vox (Gráfico 5, panel inferior), que recientemente demostraron que pueden trabajar juntos al cerrar un acuerdo de gobierno para dirigir la comunidad regional de Madrid. Gráfico 6 ...pero una menor participación podría perjudicar a la izquierda Juicio político, guerra comercial y una estancia en España – GeoRisk Update: 27 de septiembre de 2019 Juicio político, guerra comercial y una estancia en España – GeoRisk Update: 27 de septiembre de 2019 El Partido Socialista espera captar votantes marginales de Ciudadanos, es decir, aquellos escépticos respecto al giro populista de derechas de ese partido y a su postura más dura sobre Cataluña. Sin embargo, incluso captando hasta la mitad de los votantes de Ciudadanos, el apoyo al PSOE se situaría en ~37% —muy lejos de lo necesario para formar un gobierno mayoritario de partido único. Otro factor que puede perjudicar al PSOE es la participación electoral. Los votantes españoles han mostrado cada vez menos interés en apoyar a cualquier partido desde las elecciones de abril. Una disminución de la participación perjudicaría más a los partidos de izquierda, dado que los votantes culpan a Podemos y al PSOE más que al PP y a Ciudadanos por la incapacidad de formar gobierno (Gráfico 6). Los resultados más probables son mantener el statu quo o una alianza PSOE-Podemos. Pero no se puede descartar una victoria conservadora. En los dos primeros casos, la implicación es una acomodación fiscal algo más positiva que es beneficiosa a corto plazo, pero con el riesgo de perder ímpetu en las reformas que tendría consecuencias negativas a largo plazo. Para poner esto en contexto, la política española sigue orientada al ámbito doméstico, no es una amenaza para la integración europea. Los votantes en España son de los más europeístas del continente, tanto en términos de la moneda como de la pertenencia a la UE (Gráfico 7). España es uno de los principales beneficiarios de las asignaciones presupuestarias de la UE, junto con Italia. Incluso el partido de extrema derecha Vox no se considera “fuertemente euroescéptico”. Dentro de España, sin embargo, la polarización política es un problema. La desigualdad y la inmovilidad social son motivo de preocupación, aunque no tan extremas como en Italia, el Reino Unido o Estados Unidos. Además, la crisis separatista catalana es divisiva. Aunque no está prevista una nueva elección catalana hasta 2022, la coalición proindependentista de Izquierda Republicana de Cataluña y Cataluña Sí ha ido ganando impulso en las encuestas, y el apoyo a Ciudadanos se desplomó desde que el partido endureció su postura sobre Cataluña a principios de este año (Gráfico 8 Gráfico 7 A los españoles les gusta Europa Los españoles aman Europa Los españoles aman Europa Gráfico 8 Cataluña es un tema divisivo Juicio político, guerra comercial y una estancia en España – GeoRisk Update: 27 de septiembre de 2019 Juicio político, guerra comercial y una estancia en España – GeoRisk Update: 27 de septiembre de 2019 A muy corto plazo, la parálisis electoral introduce vientos en contra para la política fiscal. Por un lado, las comunidades autónomas pueden verse obligadas a recortar gasto. Las regiones esperaban recibir 5.000 millones de euros más que el año pasado, que se prometió gastar, en parte, en sanidad y educación. Hasta que un gobierno estable (o al menos en funciones) pueda aprobar un presupuesto para 2019, las regiones basarán sus presupuestos de 2019 en las cifras del año anterior, lo que significa que tendrán que recortar cualquier incremento previsto del gasto. Sin embargo, por otro lado, el déficit presupuestario se ampliará al no recaudarse algunos impuestos. A finales de 2018 España aprobó aumentos por decreto en las pensiones, los salarios de los funcionarios y el salario mínimo, pero cualquier aumento de ingresos correspondiente que se iba a implementar en el presupuesto de 2019 no se materializará hasta que haya gobierno, ejerciendo presión al alza sobre el déficit. Más allá de las elecciones, la tendencia debería ser una mayor empuje fiscal debido a la desaceleración continental. España tiene cierto margen fiscal para jugar: se proyecta que su déficit presupuestario disminuya al 2% en 2019 y al 1,1% en 2020.2 La estimación más conservadora de la Comisión Europea prevé déficits para 2019 y 2020 de 2,3% y 2%, respectivamente (Gráfico 9). Esto significa que España puede proporcionar aproximadamente entre 10.000 y 15.000 millones de euros adicionales de estímulo en 2020 sin siquiera insinuar el inicio de procedimientos por déficit excesivo, un cambio bienvenido tras casi una década de austeridad. El riesgo es que el impulso de las reformas estructurales de España pueda perderse con consecuencias negativas a largo plazo. En 2012 España llevó a cabo dolorosas reformas laborales y de pensiones que sustentaron su impresionante recuperación económica. La economía sigue creciendo más rápido que la media de sus pares, el desempleo ha caído un 12% en los últimos seis años y la competitividad exportadora ha tenido una de las recuperaciones más pronunciadas de Europa desde 2008 (Gráfico 10 Gráfico 9 España tiene cierto margen fiscal España tiene cierto margen fiscal España tiene cierto margen fiscal Esto es más probable que se evite si ocurre una sorpresa y los conservadores vuelven al poder, aunque eso también implicaría políticas menos acomodaticias a corto plazo. Gráfico 10 La recuperación empieza a desacelerarse La recuperación empieza a desacelerarse La recuperación empieza a desacelerarse Conclusión: Nuestro indicador de riesgo geopolítico señala niveles contenidos de riesgo para España. Esto encaja, ya que la elección puede no cambiar nada y, en cualquier caso, el país permanecerá en un equilibrio inquieto. La política es fundamentalmente más estable que en los países desarrollados aquejados por el populismo —EE. UU., Reino Unido e Italia. Sin embargo, un resultado que produzca un gobierno de izquierdas conducirá a una mayor acomodación fiscal a corto plazo a costa del destacado progreso reciente de España en reformas estructurales. Tareas administrativas Estamos cerrando ganancias en nuestra posición corta en el Hang Seng de Hong Kong. Los disturbios no han terminado, pero están a punto de alcanzar su punto máximo a medida que nos acercamos al 1 de octubre, Día Nacional de la República Popular China, y Pekín buscará evitar una intervención agresiva.   Ekaterina Shtrevensky, Analista de investigación ekaterinas@bcaresearch.com Matt Gertken, Vicepresidente Estratega geopolítico mattg@bcaresearch.com Notas al pie 1 El Tribunal Supremo consideró que la suspensión del parlamento por parte del gobierno de Johnson fue una frustración ilegal del papel del parlamento como legislador soberano y supervisor del gobierno sin una justificación razonable. El tribunal fue mayor de lo habitual, con 11 jueces, y fallaron por unanimidad contra la suspensión. Esperábamos al menos que la votación fuera estrecha —dado los usos históricos de la suspensión del parlamento, el hecho de que el parlamento aún tenía tiempo para actuar antes del Brexit del 31 de octubre y la autoridad histórica del primer ministro sobre asuntos exteriores y tratados—. Pero el Tribunal Supremo ha intervenido para llenar el vacío de poder creado por la parálisis del parlamento en la saga del Brexit; ha “anulado” lo que podría haber llegado a ser un precedente neo-Stuardo por el que los primeros ministros pueden restringir el papel del parlamento en momentos importantes. La consecuencia pragmática a corto plazo es la reducción de los riesgos políticos y económicos de una salida sin acuerdo; pero la consecuencia a largo plazo puede ser el ascenso del poder judicial a una mayor prominencia dentro del sistema constitucional en constante evolución de Gran Bretaña. 2 Consulte “Stability Programme Update 2019-2022, Kingdom of Spain,” disponible en www.ec.europa.eu. Reino Unido: Indicador GeoRisk Reino Unido: GEORISK INDICATOR Reino Unido: GEORISK INDICATOR Francia: Indicador GeoRisk FRANCIA: INDICADOR GEORISK FRANCIA: INDICADOR GEORISK Alemania: Indicador GeoRisk ALEMANIA: GEORISK INDICATOR ALEMANIA: GEORISK INDICATOR España: Indicador GeoRisk ESPAÑA: INDICADOR GEORISK ESPAÑA: INDICADOR GEORISK Italia: Indicador GeoRisk ITALIA: INDICADOR GEORISK ITALIA: INDICADOR GEORISK Rusia: Indicador GeoRisk RUSIA: INDICADOR GEORISK RUSIA: INDICADOR GEORISK Turquía: Indicador GeoRisk TURQUÍA: INDICADOR GEORISK TURQUÍA: INDICADOR GEORISK Brasil: Indicador GeoRisk BRASIL: INDICADOR GEORISK BRASIL: INDICADOR GEORISK Taiwán: Indicador GeoRisk TAIWAN: GEORISK INDICATOR TAIWAN: GEORISK INDICATOR Corea: Indicador GeoRisk COREA: INDICADOR GEORISK COREA: INDICADOR GEORISK ¿Qué hay en el radar geopolítico? Juicio político, guerra comercial y una estancia en España – GeoRisk Update: 27 de septiembre de 2019 Juicio político, guerra comercial y una estancia en España – GeoRisk Update: 27 de septiembre de 2019 Sección III: Calendario geopolítico