Estados Unidos
US CPI inflation cooled for a second consecutive month in November. The headline figure eased to 0.1% m/m (7.1% y/y), falling below consensus estimates. Core inflation was also softer-than-anticipated, moderating to 0.2% m/m (6.0% y/y) from 0.3% m/m (6.3%…
On aggregate, US firms experienced a sharp increase in pricing power following the initial shock of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, this trend has since reversed, and companies’ pricing power is fading. The darkening economic backdrop ultimately limits firms’…
The chart above shows equity valuations ahead of the eight most recent major S&P 500 drawdowns. It suggests that there is some evidence that the magnitude of decline in equity prices is somewhat dependent on equity valuations ahead of the drawdowns. In…
Preliminary results from the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey suggest that American household morale firmed in December. The headline index climbed 2.3 points following November’s decline to 56.8. Importantly, consumers’ assessment of current…
Following the release of the Bank Credit Analyst’s annual outlook, we unveil our key views for 2023. The investment strategy takeaway is that we want to lean into risk in the early part of the year but reduce exposure to it in the second half.
We explore the eight major themes that will define economic and market trends for Europe next year.
According to BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service, a winning strategy is to be long currencies where real interest rates could rise in a recession. These include petrocurrencies (specifically the NOK), as well as the currencies of countries where…
The US producer price index (PPI) release was hotter-than-anticipated in November. Headline PPI for final demand was unchanged at 0.3% m/m, beating expectations of 0.2% m/m. Moreover, the core measure accelerated to 0.4% m/m from an upwardly revised 0.1% m/m,…
S&P 500 Growth stocks have underperformed the Value index by 21% so far this year, erasing all of their relative gains since the S&P 500’s March 23, 2020 pandemic bottom. This year’s rapid increase in bond yields has weighed more heavily on the Growth index,…
Prefer government bonds over stocks, defensive sectors over cyclicals, and large caps over small caps. Favor North America over other markets. Favor emerging markets like Southeast Asia and Latin America over Greater China, Turkey, and emerging Europe. Stick with aerospace/defense stocks.