Estados Unidos
Los trabajadores tienen un viento cíclico a favor mientras la demanda de mano de obra supera la oferta, pero una espiral salarios-precios no es más que una posibilidad remota. El trasfondo estructural se ha vuelto significativamente en su contra desde la última oleada de alta inflación hace más de 40 años y ya no son formadores de precios.
US nonfarm payrolls increased by 223 thousand jobs in December, from 256 thousand in November and beating expectations of a larger decrease. Meanwhile, Household Survey data indicate that the number of employed workers increased by 717 thousand in December,…
Durable manufactured goods orders slid by 1.8% m/m in November, following a downwardly revised 0.4% m/m. However, contracting transportation equipment orders (-6.3% m/m) drove the bulk of the overall decline in November (they had led the increases in durable…
The Barclays US Aggregate TR index lost 13.6% last year as the Fed’s tightening cycle’s impact on yields trumped the effect of a deteriorating economy. Although the weakness was broad-based, relatively safer segments of the bond market mostly performed better…
BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service is more optimistic than the consensus among investors on the near-term outlook. In contrast to the prevailing negative mood, they expect global growth to surprise on the upside in 2023. In the US, the Atlanta…
Relative to beaten-down expectations, global growth will surprise on the upside in 2023. Investors should overweight equities for now but look to turn more defensive in the second half of the year.
The US ISM Manufacturing PMI fell deeper in contraction territory in December, falling to 48.4 from 49.0. Details of the report highlight that both domestic and foreign demand conditions are deteriorating at a faster pace. Notably, the production index fell…
Most US housing market data remained soft through the end of last year. The NAHB Housing Market index disappointed in December and building permits slumped by 11.2% m/m in November, presaging further declines in housing starts. The contraction in existing…
BCA Research’s Global Asset Allocation service continues to recommend a defensive portfolio positioning. The US economy is not yet in recession. But forward-looking data point to a slowdown – and Europe is probably already in recession. China is a wild card…
Slowing growth would be bad for equities, but so would stronger growth since it would mean more rate hikes.