Estados Unidos

This report looks at the relationship between rate risk and credit risk and how it has changed over time. It also makes the case for favoring agency MBS within an underweight allocation to US spread product.

The YTD market rally was driven by outperformance of high-quality growth stocks which offer protection in uncertain times. As growth continues to slow, high-quality growth stocks should continue to do well. Hence, we are moving to overweight Growth vs. Value.

A benign disinflation is probable during the remainder of 2023. Unfortunately, just when most people become convinced that a recession has been avoided, a recession will begin.

There are several widespread market narratives regarding US inflation, the Fed’s policy, global manufacturing/trade and China’s recovery that we disagree with. In this report, we explain our reasoning and where it puts us in terms of investment strategies.

Innovative Tech will face macroeconomic headwinds in a new “higher for longer” interest regime. Yet, the long-term opportunity of the cohort is tremendous. Investors need to be judicious with the timing of adding new capital to these themes to bolster long-term returns.