Estados Unidos
We are increasing our gold price target to $2,200/oz, given the increasing risk of fiscal dominance in the US, rising geopolitical risk, the return of trading blocs and currency debasement risk. These risks also will increase economic uncertainty, which also will be bullish for gold.
The dollar has entered a structural bear market. Although the greenback could get a temporary reprieve during the next recession, investors should position for a weaker dollar over the long haul.
Like most other risk assets, US high-yield corporate bonds sold off in March during the banking turmoil in the US and Europe. The overall Bloomberg US high-yield index spread rose from a low of 389bps on March 6, just before the news on the funding problems…
The Fed’s Beige Book suggests that the slight increase in US economic activity earlier this year is fading. The number of districts reporting modest growth fell to three from six in the February release. Moreover, two of the 12 districts expect a…
The Q1-2023 US earnings season started last Friday. As companies report, we will gauge the effects of the Fed’s monetary campaign on corporate profitability. With inflation declining, and demand faltering, sales growth is key. According to Factset,…
According to BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service investors and regulators would be foolishly complacent if they didn’t consider the possibility that the banking turmoil could reduce credit availability and slow economic activity, but the most recent…
BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service concludes that in the near-term (3-months), investors should favor bond sectors with low exposure to both rate risk and credit risk such as T-bills and agency bonds. One of the traditional relationships that fixed…
Our US Bond Strategists expect the Fed to deliver one last 25 basis point rate hike at its next FOMC meeting on May 2-3 before an extended pause. Given that rate cuts are currently priced in for 2023, the implication for US bond investors is that they should…
BCA Research’s US Equity Strategy service upgraded Growth to overweight and downgrade Value to underweight on a tactical investment horizon. Many growth stocks have recently disappointed investors as their sales and earnings growth is slowing. Yet, slowing…
The New York Fed’s Empire State Survey delivered a positive signal about US manufacturing activity in April. The headline general business conditions index jumped 35.4 points to 10.8, unexpectedly crossing into positive territory for the first time since…