Estados Unidos
Investor sentiment has improved meaningfully in recent weeks. According to the latest AAII survey, the share of respondents with a bullish outlook jumped from 29.1% to 44.5%. It crossed above the historical average of 37.5% for the first time since February…
On June 7th, the VIX closed just below 14, its lowest level since the onset of the pandemic. The index has been on an unprecedented downtrend since March. In fact, the most recent 60-day change in the VIX is in the bottom 3% of all 60-day moves. Lower…
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, the leading indicators of inflation continue to point down, suggesting that the Fed may be able to finally go on hold after hiking one last time in July. Earlier this year, the team predicted…
Near the half-year mark, it is safe to say 2023 has been different than 2022 for equity investors. After being brought down in bear market territory by Europe’s energy crisis and sudden global shift to hawkish monetary policy in 2022, the S&P 500 was driven…
The latest increase in US weekly jobless claims came in above consensus estimates. Initial jobless claims jumped to 261 thousand in the week ended June 3 – above expectations of a 235 thousand increase. This marks the highest level since October 2021. Rising…
A benign disinflation will support equities over the next few quarters. Stocks will fall next year as a recession begins when investors least expect it.
Slowing manufacturing PMI indices globally indicate the slowdown in economic activity will persist. Manufacturing demand for commodities will also soften, weighing on industrial commodity prices. Geopolitical tensions and the race to the green energy transition will upend enmeshed global supply chains, which will also impact manufacturing activity. It is possible that stimulus in China will arrest the decline in the state’s manufacturing activity, which will have positive spillover effects to its key trading partners.
US high-yield corporate bonds have been rallying of late. The average index option-adjusted spread narrowed by 58 bps over the past three weeks. This improvement is consistent with the recent performance of other risky assets: the S&P 500 is up 4.2% since…
According to BCA Research’s US Equity Strategy service, the earnings contraction is far from over. However, rising productivity, falling costs, or a new restocking cycle could help. Earnings and sales growth beat analyst expectations in Q1-23, yet in real…