Economy

Is the RMB cheap or expensive? Based on trade accounts, the yuan is inexpensive, but the RMB is vulnerable due to capital outflows. Yet, Beijing will not resort to a rapid devaluation for now, and the option of floating the currency is improbable. The PBoC will allow a gradual depreciation of the yuan versus the dollar, say around 5%, in the next six months.

In this week's report, we review the impact of political developments, as well as incoming fundamental data, on our positioning.

Our labor market indicators have softened meaningfully during the past month but aren’t yet signaling an imminent recession. That said, the Fed can no longer ignore the labor market with the unemployment rate above 4% and rising.

The new Labour government will have flexibility to respond to macro shocks, which is positive for the UK in general, namely GBP-EUR, and also gilts in absolute terms. But over the long run, tax hikes will likely surprise to the upside, which poses a risk to corporate earnings.

Does the incipient slowdown in European data herald a soft landing and a goldilocks period for equities? We have our doubts.