Economía
The post-COVID inflation pushed bond yields higher, turning the stock-bond yield correlation negative and taking away bonds’ hedging properties. The relationship normalized this summer as economic data surprised negatively, pushing equities and yields lower.…
En los próximos meses, el nuevo gobierno de Japón relajará la política fiscal, lo que mejorará la demanda interna marginalmente. La política monetaria puede endurecerse más a corto plazo, pero no demasiado a largo plazo. El contexto geopolítico empuja a Japón hacia una política económica acomodaticia.
El día de las elecciones por fin ha llegado. No, este correo no contiene una previsión definitiva ni una "bala de plata". Solo nuestro pronóstico a largo plazo sobre cómo la elección, gane quien gane, afectará a los mercados.
The October global manufacturing PMI printed at 49.4, up from 48.7 in September but still in contractionary territory. While output stabilized at 50.1, new orders (48.8) and new export orders (48.3) remain in contraction, as is the case for the new…
As markets settle into waiting mode for the US election, we provide a concise but not exhaustive cheatsheet for what to expect as the results come out. Our US & Geopolitical strategists’ two most likely outcomes are a “Red Sweep” (GOP White House and…
Our Global Asset Allocation Strategy colleagues argue in their monthly report that while a soft landing is a possibility, it is already reflected in asset pricing. A Trump victory would be a threat to this scenario. Inflation pressures are abating, and the…
The October US jobs report had mixed signals and was skewed by hurricanes and industrial strikes. Unemployment met expectations by staying unchanged at 4.1%, although it rose nearly 0.1 percentage point on an unrounded basis. Nonfarm payrolls were flat with…
China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI rebounded one point in October to 50.3. This was in line with the NBS PMIs from earlier this week, which also showed a modest rebound. We are looking for a turning point in China as the government unrolls stimulus measures.…
The October ISM Manufacturing missed expectations, decreasing to 46.5 from 47.2 in September. The Prices Paid component jumped, rising to 54.8 from 48.3 the month prior. New Orders showed a small upside surprise at 47.1, up 1 point on the month, pushing the…
EM credit markets have recently defied the selloffs in EM equities, currencies, local currency bonds, and commodities. According to our Emerging Markets Strategy colleagues, such a decoupling is unusual. A potential Trump re-election could weigh heavily on EM…