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Economía

Today we are publishing a charts-only report focused on the key macroeconomic data as well as each GICS1 S&P 500 sector. Many of the charts are self-explanatory; to some we have added a short commentary. The charts cover macro, valuations, fundamentals, technicals, and the uses of cash. Our goal is to equip you with all the data you need to make investment decisions in these sectors.

Informe especial

Los trabajadores tienen un viento cíclico a favor mientras la demanda de mano de obra supera la oferta, pero una espiral salarios-precios no es más que una posibilidad remota. El trasfondo estructural se ha vuelto significativamente en su contra desde la última oleada de alta inflación hace más de 40 años y ya no son formadores de precios.

US nonfarm payrolls increased by 223 thousand jobs in December, from 256 thousand in November and beating expectations of a larger decrease. Meanwhile, Household Survey data indicate that the number of employed workers increased by 717 thousand in December,…
Durable manufactured goods orders slid by 1.8% m/m in November, following a downwardly revised 0.4% m/m. However, contracting transportation equipment orders (-6.3% m/m) drove the bulk of the overall decline in November (they had led the increases in durable…
Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports contracted by 14.6% y/y in November, a sharp deterioration from the prior month’s downwardly revised 6.1% y/y decline, and more than double the expected 6.5% drop. Notably, exports of electronics fell by 20.2% y/y and led…
BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service is more optimistic than the consensus among investors on the near-term outlook. In contrast to the prevailing negative mood, they expect global growth to surprise on the upside in 2023. In the US, the Atlanta…

Relative to beaten-down expectations, global growth will surprise on the upside in 2023. Investors should overweight equities for now but look to turn more defensive in the second half of the year.

According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, China’s reopening and pro-growth stimulus will lift the economy from rock bottom. However, the recovery in the first half of this year will be uneven. China’s economic data indicate a broad-based…
Inflation figures for individual Eurozone economies released this week suggest that price pressures have peaked on the Old Continent. Notably, the preliminary estimate of Germany’s harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) surprised to the downside,…

How to play China's reopening? What are the dichotomies in the performance of China's plays in financial markets? Why has the Chinese central bank tightened liquidity since October and what has been the impact on local rates and the RMB? Is global growth about to bottom? What is the outlook for EM stocks, currencies, credit markets as well as the broad-trade weighted US dollar?