Economía

Germany's Economic Challenges Amid Eurozone Resilience

BCA’s European Investment Strategy team continues to expect the German economy to trail that of the rest of Europe. Since 2020, Germany has fallen behind, with its real GDP lagging that of the broader Eurozone by 5%. The contribution of consumption to GDP…

2 año 2 años ago

Essentials

Investors Should Not Chase The Rally

Our US Equity Strategy service released their Sector Chart Pack where they took stock of the recent earnings season and developments in the S&P 500. They observed that this February marked the strongest performance in the S&P 500 over the past nine Februarys…

2 año 2 años ago

CoreMacro

Expected Inflation Surges, Just As Expected

Expected inflation has surged to its highest level in a year. This has surprised many people, but expected inflation is behaving just as expected. Expected inflation is not a prophecy, it is just a mathematical function of delivered inflation. We discuss what this means for central banks in the US, UK, euro area, and Japan. Plus: bitcoin’s structural uptrend to $100,000+ is still intact.

2 año 2 años ago

Essentials

A Closer Look At February's US Services PMI

The US ISM Services PMI declined slightly to 52.6 in February, just below expectations of 53. Overall, the service sector continues to expand, however, the recent ISM suggests that growth is slowing down. In fact, most of the components of the ISM worsened,…

2 año 2 años ago

Essentials

The Case For Norway

Data out of Norway is becoming increasingly positive, and there is a strong investment case to be made for the country, with bullish implications for both equities and the currency: Retail sales remain robust and are catching up to the improvement we have…

2 año 2 años ago

Essentials

The Fed Doesn't Need To Raise Rates To Cause A Large Hawkish Shock

We noted in a previous Insight that recent comments from Raphael Bostic, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, may reflect a growing realization among policymakers that they have inadvertently caused a significant easing in financial conditions.…

2 año 2 años ago

Essentials

Dax 40 Reaches New Highs: How Much Further Upside?

The stock market of the Eurozone’s largest economy keeps grinding higher with the DAX 40 closing at new highs last week. Since its October low, the index of German blue-chip companies advanced by 20%. Does this rally have legs? On a relative basis, German…

2 año 2 años ago

Essentials

Risks To The Recessionary Base Case

Our US Investment Strategy service examines the state of consumer finances in the context of their view that a recession will materialize this year with a double-digit peak-to-trough decline in S&P 500 earnings expectations. They expect the pandemic-era…

2 año 2 años ago

Equities

Sector Chart Pack: The Rally That Keeps On Rallying

The market narrative continues to be dominated by the Magnificent Six, which drove both market performance and strong Q4 earnings results. While all sectors and styles have recently turned green, the rally is still mostly narrow. Earnings growth appears to be strong, but outside of the Magnificent Six, many companies are struggling. The market appears expensive and overbought, but that is mostly down to the high valuations and the popularity of the Magnificent Six.

2 año 2 años ago

Essentials

China PMIs: Stabilizing

China’s NBS PMI release indicates that the Chinese growth is stabilizing at a low level. The composite PMI came in at 50.9 – unchanged from January. The stabilization was led by the non-manufacturing sector though both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing…

2 año 2 años ago

Economía

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