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The Bank of Canada cut the overnight rate by 50 bps to 3.25%, a move predicted by economists and roughly priced in. The consecutive supersized cut brings the policy rate in the upper end of the 2.25%-to-3.25% range the BoC considers as neutral. With inflation…
A change in government is the likeliest outcome of the next election, but the pre-election period will be stretched to ensure that the recently announced stimulus trickles down to voters. The next Prime Minister must face President Trump on top of dealing with domestic housing challenges. Go long Canadian energy stocks versus the broad market and long AUD/CAD to take advantage of the differentials in regional geopolitics.
As 2024 closes out a busy electoral calendar for North America, our Geopolitical strategists look at Canada, where an election will be held by October 2025. Canada is poised for a likely change in leadership next year. The next government will inherit…
Canadian inflation was slightly hotter than expected in October, re-accelerating to 2.0% y/y from 1.6% in September. The BoC’s favored core measures, median and trim, re-accelerated to 2.5% and 2.6% respectively, and CPI-common rebounded to 2.2%. CPI…
Esta semana actualizamos nuestros Monitores de Bancos Centrales (CBMs), que nos ayudan a calibrar cómo debe ajustarse la política monetaria en las economías de mercados desarrollados. Nuestra conclusión es que, si bien en términos generales se requieren condiciones monetarias más acomodaticias, surgen algunas ideas de trading a partir de las divergencias en las señales entre los países del G10.
El sistema político mundial se está desestabilizando y Estados Unidos adoptará una postura más agresiva en política exterior, política comercial o en ambas, independientemente del resultado electoral. Tácticamente, apueste por el dólar.
In this Insight, we evaluate if there is more juice in our macro bet of being long June 2025 CORRA versus SOFR futures, and correspondingly, being short the CAD, for investors with a 1-3 month horizon.
After cutting three times already since June, the Bank of Canada fulfilled market expectations and cut the overnight rate by 50 bps to 3.75%. The BoC sees risks around inflation as roughly balanced over its projection horizon, and is focused on “sticking the…
This Insight looks at the likely direction of bond yields and the dollar, from the lens of money velocity.
Canadian headline inflation rose 1.6% year-over-year in September, lower than the expected 1.8% and down from 2.0% in August. This was also its slowest pace since February 2021. The decrease was mainly driven by gasoline prices, leaving the core (ex. food and…