Record Illegal Immigration Masks A Fragile US Consumer
Illegal immigration into the US has skyrocketed to record levels. Correctly accounting for this, US real consumption growth on a per head basis is already fragile. Meanwhile, the real bond yield is only now approaching the pain point that typically triggers a recession. Ahead of the upcoming US jobs report, we point out what it would take for the Joshi rule real-time US recession indicator to breach its event horizon. And how to position in stocks and bonds, both tactically and cyclically. Plus: potential turning points in Biotech and Genome, ADBE, and Taiwan versus China.
BCAリサーチ | Counterpoint
BCA’s flagship global macro and investment strategy platform, helping investors anticipate regime shifts, connect signals across regions and asset classes, and navigate the world’s most difficult macro questions.
BCAとつながり続ける
最新のイベントおよびリサーチインサイトをメールでお届けします。