Blowout Jobs Report

I am starting to regret my decision to join the dark side a few months ago. The September jobs report was very strong. In the spirit of being a good Bayesian and adjusting my credences based on new information, I am revising down my 12-month US recession probability from 70% to 60% and shifting the likely start date of the recession into the first half of 2025 (previously, I had said late 2024 or early 2025).