2025 Key Views: Watch Japan
Japan is the main driver of global liquidity, so a big risk in 2025 is a rising Japanese real yield; Trump’s US economy will be supply-constrained, keeping US unemployment contained and US inflation stubborn; China’s fiscal stimulus has lost its mojo, so Chinese bond yields must fall further; Markets will reach points of fragility, and we describe how to spot them. Plus: tactically short the US dollar (DXY).
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