Global Macro Chart of the Week

BCA Research’s mission is to shape the level of conviction with which our clients make investment decisions. One way we do this is by delivering forecasts and leading-edge analysis of all the major asset classes and economies. Gain insight into our independent global macro research through our charts of the week.

Further Downside In Oil Prices?

March 22 2023

Oil has been among the key victims of the banking tumult. The price of Brent has fallen by more than $10/bbl from its peak earlier this month. Similarly, energy is the second worst performing equity sector since the bank fallout.

More Large-Cap Bank Failures Are Unlikely

March 15 2023

Since Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB) was seized by the FDIC last Friday, and Signature Bank (SBNY) was shuttered over the weekend, investors have been on pins and needles wondering how many more banks will fold.

A Period Of Indigestion For The Euro

March 08 2023

The euro has been giving back recent gains, despite the upbeat economic performance of the Eurozone. One of the most reliable trackers for the euro’s performance of late is the ZEW sentiment index. It surveys over 300 experts from banks, insurance companies, and financial departments of select corporations on the outlook for financial markets. Despite an increase in the Growth Expectations component to a one-year high of 29.7 in February, the euro collapsed, creating a rare divergence.

How To Spot An Equity Market Bottom

March 01 2023

This has been a difficult 12 months for investors: After the huge sell-off last year, risk assets have rebounded since October. So, is that the beginning of a new bull market, or just another bear market rally? How can investors tell the difference?

Will US Inflation Breakevens Decouple From Oil Prices?

February 22 2023

US inflation expectations from the fixed-income market typically track crude oil prices. Recently, however, the 5-year TIPS breakeven inflation rate (inflation expectations) has risen despite tame crude prices. Are we witnessing a short-term aberration or the beginning of a lasting divergence between these two?

Challenging Labor Market Conditions For Small Businesses

February 15 2023

The reported 517k surge in nonfarm payrolls in January has caused some market commentators to question the accuracy of this figure. The decline in the surveys’ response rate is among the factors being raised – alongside seasonal adjustments and new population estimates – as potentially reducing the reliability of the establishment data, as well as the results of the JOLTS survey.

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