Global Macro Chart of the Week
BCA Research’s mission is to shape the level of conviction with which our clients make investment decisions. One way we do this is by delivering forecasts and leading-edge analysis of all the major asset classes and economies. Gain insight into our independent global macro research through our charts of the week.
Goldilocks? Or The Two Bears?
December 14 2023
The November US retail sales release for November delivered a positive signal about consumer spending. Overall retail sales unexpectedly increased by 0.3% m/m, surprising expectations of a 0.1% m/m decline. The details of the report were also favorable. Eight of the 13 sectors experienced month-over-month growth. And the retail sales control group – a more precise measure of consumer spending which excludes gasoline stations, food services, auto dealers and building materials stores – rose by 0.4% m/m, beating expectations of a 0.2% m/m increase.
Soft US Inflation Cements The Fed's Pause
November 14 2023
US Treasury yields fell sharply following yesterday’s soft October CPI report, and investors have now officially priced out all remaining rate hikes from the yield curve. In fact, the fed funds futures curve is priced for a 25 basis point rate cut by next June and for 50 bps of easing by next July.