Poor Fundamentals Will Weigh On Tech Hardware & Equipment

April 12 2023

According to a recent International Data Corporation (IDC) report, global shipments of traditional PCs dropped by 29% y/y in the first quarter of 2023. The decline was attributed to weak demand, excess inventories, and deteriorating economic conditions. In particular, Apple’s shipments bore the brunt of the weakness, dropping by 40.5% y/y.

Can European Equities Continue To Defy Banking Sector Risks?

April 05 2023

The European stock market is at risk. The tightening in global credit conditions suggests that global growth will be soft over the coming months, posing a threat to highly cyclical European stocks. Moreover, unlike those for the S&P 500, European earnings expectations have not yet declined. This dichotomy creates a real danger for European stocks, which stand close to an all-time high.

US Consumer Morale Firms

March 29 2023

The US Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index unexpectedly edged up from 103.4 to 104.2 in March, surprising expectations of a decline to 101. The Expectations component’s 2.6 point increase offset the Current Situation index’s 1.9 point decline.

Further Downside In Oil Prices?

March 22 2023

Oil has been among the key victims of the banking tumult. The price of Brent has fallen by more than $10/bbl from its peak earlier this month. Similarly, energy is the second worst performing equity sector since the bank fallout.

More Large-Cap Bank Failures Are Unlikely

March 15 2023

Since Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB) was seized by the FDIC last Friday, and Signature Bank (SBNY) was shuttered over the weekend, investors have been on pins and needles wondering how many more banks will fold.

A Period Of Indigestion For The Euro

March 08 2023

The euro has been giving back recent gains, despite the upbeat economic performance of the Eurozone. One of the most reliable trackers for the euro’s performance of late is the ZEW sentiment index. It surveys over 300 experts from banks, insurance companies, and financial departments of select corporations on the outlook for financial markets. Despite an increase in the Growth Expectations component to a one-year high of 29.7 in February, the euro collapsed, creating a rare divergence.

How To Spot An Equity Market Bottom

March 01 2023

This has been a difficult 12 months for investors: After the huge sell-off last year, risk assets have rebounded since October. So, is that the beginning of a new bull market, or just another bear market rally? How can investors tell the difference?

Will US Inflation Breakevens Decouple From Oil Prices?

February 22 2023

US inflation expectations from the fixed-income market typically track crude oil prices. Recently, however, the 5-year TIPS breakeven inflation rate (inflation expectations) has risen despite tame crude prices. Are we witnessing a short-term aberration or the beginning of a lasting divergence between these two?