How we do it

• The USIS team rigorously studies the business cycle, the credit cycle, the sentiment cycle, and the monetary policy cycle to anticipate market-moving inflection points
• We focus on only the elements of the economy that impact financial markets and are of interest to the vast majority of investors
• We make use of the entire archive of proprietary models and indicators from USIS’ 25-year history and BCA Research’s 70-year history

Some of what we have called

2013-14 Equities
Upgraded equities to overweight and downgraded Treasuries to underweight in our September 23, 2013 report. Between September 23, 2013 and September 12, 2014, when the next team took over USIS, the S&P 500 Total Return Index outperformed the Barclays US Treasury Index by 16.2%.

2013-14 Spread Product
Upgraded spread product to overweight in team’s inaugural August 12, 2013 report. Recommendation to overweight high-yield over investment-grade corporates delivered 3% of outperformance between August 12, 2013 and September 12, 2014, when the next team took over USIS.

Upgraded spread product to overweight in team’s inaugural August 12, 2013 report. Recommendation to overweight high-yield and investment-grade corporates over Treasuries delivered 7.6% and 4.6% of outperformance, respectively, between August 12, 2013 and September 12, 2014, when the next team took over USIS.

2013-14 Dividend Aristocrats
Recommended owning the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats Index in place of Treasuries and Investment-Grade Corporates in the August 19, 2013 report as a higher-returning alternative to “safe” debt. Between August 19, 2013 and September 12, 2014, when the next team took over USIS, the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats Total Return Index outperformed the Barclays US Treasury Index and the Barclays US Corporate Index by 15.3% and 9.9%, respectively.

2014 Property REITs
Recommended owning property REITS in place of Treasuries and Investment-Grade Corporates in the April 14, 2014 report as a higher-returning alternative to “safe” debt. Between April 14, 2014 and September 12, 2014, when the next team took over USIS, the S&P 500 REIT Total Return Index outperformed the Barclays U.S. Treasury Index and the Barclays U.S. Corporate Index by 6.8% and 6.1%, respectively.