How we do it

• Our recommendations focus on the cyclical horizon (i.e. ~ 6 – 24 months). We explore turning points in Emerging and Developed Markets cycles, which drive commodities’ demand cycles
• Our highly followed medium-term oil outlook derives from robust quantitative models calibrated by our commodity, fixed income, foreign exchange and geopolitical experts’ qualitative inputs
• We employ rigorous, state-of-the-art econometric modelling and theory to frame our thinking, and elegant prose and chart-work to convey it
• Our publications incorporate a deep understanding of the political economy of commodity markets, which allows us to highlight profitable tactical recommendations to our clients ahead of market movements
• We also offer a bespoke advisory service, with quarterly or monthly calls, analysis of client’s specific exposures and access to our model output and to the models themselves

Some of what we have called

2019 Energy
In January 2019, we recommended clients buy short-dated exposure to crude oil prices and sell long-dated exposure, in line with our out-of-consensus expectation OPEC and Russia would once again deliver on production cuts. We closed this recommendation in February 2019 with a gain of 272%.

2017 Precious Metals
For 2017 and 2018, CNE recommended holding gold in a diversified portfolio to hedge against mounting equity and inflation risks. This recommendation returned 9% so far.

2017 Ags/softs 
We went overweight corn relative to sugar in January 2017. Over the following 5 months, our position returned 19%. 

2019 Base Metals 
Resulting from our fundamental analysis of the iron ore market, we recommended going tactically long spot high-grade 65% Fe vs. short spot 62% Fe. We closed this recommendation after two weeks with a gain of 23%.