Recession-Hard/Soft Landing

Deciphering The Signal From Singapore’s NODX

Singapore’s trade data continue to send a pessimistic signal about global manufacturing conditions. The year-over-year contraction in non-oil domestic exports (NODX) deepened to -15.5% y/y in June from -14.8% y/y – marking the ninth consecutive month of…

3 年 3 年間 ago

Essentials

Will US Consumer Discretionary Continue Outperforming?

In the first five months of the year, optimism about GAI (generative AI) drove a narrow rally in US equities. The three sectors that contain companies that are most exposed to this dynamic were the only ones that experienced price gains. IT, Communication…

3 年 3 年間 ago

Essentials

The Signal From Dr. Copper

Copper rallied to a two-month high by the end of last week. Importantly, this move did not occur in isolation. It coincides with greater optimism about the prospects of a soft landing. Indeed, the US economic surprise index is solidly in positive territory…

3 年 3 年間 ago

CoreMacro

Gauging The Trajectory Of The Economy (And The Stock Market)

Stocks fare best when there is plenty of slack in the economy and growth is strong and getting stronger. The good news is that the economic growth score for the US in our MacroQuant model is above its historic average. The bad news is that US economy is operating with little slack and sentiment is getting complacent. We recommend that investors maintain a modest overweight to equities for the time being but look to get more defensive later this year or in early 2024.

3 年 3 年間 ago

Global

Essentials

Beige Book Monitor Signals Slight Improvement In US Activity

The Fed’s latest Beige Book reveals that economic activity rose slightly in recent weeks. The results are based on surveys and interviews conducted across 12 districts through June 30. In particular, two of the districts experienced “slight and modest…

3 年 3 年間 ago

GeoMacro

Third Quarter Geopolitical Outlook 2023

Falling inflation enables central banks to pause rate hikes, which is good news. But time goes on. Restrictive monetary policy, Chinese debt-deflation, energy supply shocks, US and global policy uncertainty, and extreme geopolitical risks will undermine hopes of a soft landing and beautiful disinflation.

3 年 3 年間 ago

Essentials

Cooling Down

The June US CPI release showed inflationary pressures cooled last month. The headline index moderated from 4.0% y/y to 3.0% y/y – slightly below expectations of 3.1% y/y. Similarly, core CPI growth eased from 5.3% y/y to 4.8% y/y – a sharper slowdown than the…

3 年 3 年間 ago

Essentials

BoC: One Decision At A Time

As expected, the Bank of Canada raised interest rates for the second consecutive month after restarting its tightening campaign last month. At 5.0%, the policy rate now stands 4.75 percentage points above where it was at the start of the tightening cycle last…

3 年 3 年間 ago

Essentials

Lower Food Prices Support The Disinflation Process

Wheat, corn, and soybean all traded lower at the Chicago Board of Trade on Wednesday following the US Department of Agriculture’s latest release of its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – down 4.2%, 3.5%, and 2.4%, respectively. …

3 年 3 年間 ago

Essentials

UK Jobs Market Faces Lingering Inflationary Pressures

Hot UK wage data focused investors’ attention on the Bank of England’s battle against sticky inflationary pressures on Tuesday. The 7.3% y/y increase in weekly earnings (excluding bonuses) in the three months to May surpassed expectations of a 7.1% y/y rise…

3 年 3 年間 ago

Recession-Hard/Soft Landing

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