Recession-Hard/Soft Landing
BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service cautions against turning bullish on corporate bonds. Corporate bonds have delivered strong excess returns versus duration-matched Treasuries during the past two months. Yet the team’s fair value models, based on…
Nonfarm payroll employment increased by less than anticipated in July, rising by 187 thousand versus expectations of 200 thousand. In addition, the June increase was revised down from 209 thousand to 185 thousand. Similarly, average weekly hours worked…
The first half of the year was characterized by a two-speed economy. Manufacturing bore the brunt of the weakness while the services sector remained resilient. However, the global composite PMI corroborates the signal from DM flash PMIs that this dynamic is…
As expected, the Bank of England delivered another 25 basis point rate increase at its Thursday meeting, lifting the policy rate to 5.25%. Going forward, Bailey – not unlike his counterparts at the Fed and ECB – highlighted that the MPC will be…
The Supreme Court is a generator of certainty rather than uncertainty for US markets. In the event of a constitutional crisis, a court intervention will likely reduce volatility.
The ADP Jobs Report delivered a better-than-anticipated signal about the US labor market on Wednesday. The 324 thousand increase in private employment in July beat expectations of a 190 thousand rise and marks the second highest reading in a year following…
The US Federal Reserve Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) reveals that US banks continue to tighten lending standards for commercial and industrial (C&I), commercial real estate (CRE), residential real estate (RRE), home equity lines of credit…
Collapsed complexity, plus the unwinding of favourable base effects and favourable seasonal adjustments to the inflation and jobs numbers, all pose a danger to the Goldilocks market.
The Global Manufacturing PMI remained unchanged at 48.7 in July, indicating that the pace of decline steadied at the start of the third quarter. The details of the release show accelerating rates of decline in production, new orders, and new export orders.…
The Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates on hold at 4.1% on Tuesday, surprising expectations of a 25bps increase. Governor Philip Lowe’s statement underscores that the decision “will provide further time to assess the impact of” the 4 percentage…