Recession-Hard/Soft Landing
After dipping into negative territory between June and early August, the Global Economic Surprise Index has since rebounded, signalling an improvement in economic momentum. Initially, this rebound was isolated to the US. However, the trend has been broadening…
According to BCA Research's US Equity Strategy service, mid-caps underperform when spreads widen, although less so than Small as they are more financially robust and have better credit ratings. Small is the most leveraged relative to income (EBITDA) and…
The US Conference Board's Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) continues to send a poor signal about the economic outlook. The monthly pace of contraction quickened to -0.8% m/m in October from -0.7% m/m in September. In terms of the drivers of the monthly…
To the extent that Taiwanese export orders act as a bellwether for global trade dynamics, we often monitor the release to gain a sense of the state of the manufacturing cycle. On this front, the October update provided a positive signal. The pace of decline…
As we anticipated in an Insight we published in May, palladium continues to underperform platinum. Last week, platinum's discount to palladium shrunk to its smallest since August 2018. While the prices of both metals have fallen so far this year, palladium's…
The soft-landing narrative is gaining momentum, pushing equities higher and potentially offering investors a better entry point to position against it. Financial markets appear to have been surprised by the comforting inflation picture painted by the…
The soft-landing narrative has gotten nowhere at BCA but appears to be making some headway with broker-dealers and investors. We are preparing to lean against it once it pushes equity prices a little higher.
Singapore is a small open economy that is highly sensitive to fluctuations in the global manufacturing activity. As such, Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) are a bellwether for global growth. Singapore’s NODX delivered an upside surprise on…
Recent data releases have painted a mixed picture of US housing market dynamics. On the one hand, housing starts and building permits unexpectedly increased on a month-on-month basis in October. After falling in 2022, housing starts have somewhat…
Global market sentiment has improved notably since late-October. In the equity space, DM and EM stocks have gained 8.5% and 7.8% respectively since October 26. Regarding currencies, the counter-cyclical DXY index has lost 2.2% so far in November. And as we…