Globalization/Deglobalization
グローバル投資家は、グローバル貿易や「第2次冷戦」が形成されつつあるかどうかについて柔軟な姿勢を持つべきです。現在の国際的な文脈は、初期の冷戦時代とは異なりますが、経済統合は低下しており、今後数年間で大国が安全保障上の競争をより適切に管理しなければ、さらなる低下が続く可能性があります。
大規模な原油ショックのような急性の地政学的リスクは和らぎつつあるかもしれません。しかし、構造的な地政学的リスクは依然として高い水準にあり、楽天的な市場を混乱させる可能性があります。米国が減速し、中国が引き続き苦戦する中、循環的な経済リスクは過小評価されています。投資家は、関税実施や厳しい経済データの減速を見越して利益確定を検討すべきです。
In our Beta report, we focus on our decade view. Many of our global allocator clients are scrambling to incorporate geopolitics into their strategic asset allocation. For most, this means thinking about war… or about future end-states. This is a mistake. We consider the next five years (maybe a decade) as the transition to the new era, a transition away from American unipolarity. And the transition itself is investment relevant. A transition to a multipolar world – which we think is occurring – will crush the USD and favor non-US assets. A transition to a bipolar world – not our base case, but still possible – would do the opposite.
The Trump administration posits that the world owes the US for the provision of its security. In this report, we perform a quantitative analysis to come up with a naïve estimate of the cost of that peace. More importantly (and more seriously), our qualitative assessment argues that save for a number of frontline countries that rely on the US defense umbrella, the vast majority of the world faces manageable security threats due to the complex multipolar global environment and a growing number of alternatives to the US security blanket.
- Congress will pass tax cuts by end of 2025 producing a fiscal thrust of about 0.9% of GDP in 2026.
- Trump will count on that stimulus as a basis for slapping tariffs on leading trade partners.
- China will retaliate against Trump and stimulate its domestic economy, while pursuing stronger trade ties with other countries. Europe will also retaliate.
- Geopolitical risk will shift from Ukraine-Russia to Israel-Iran, where the conflict will continue to escalate until a crisis point is reached within 2025.