Corporate Bonds

The global economy is wobbling precariously between slowing growth and reaccelerating inflation. This is unlikely to end well. Stay cautious, and hedge against both recession and inflation.

We expand our risk/reward analysis of US investment grade corporate bonds to focus on the 44 industry groups included in the Bloomberg index.

In this Strategy Outlook we examine why, contrary to popular perception, the odds of a global recession over the next 12 months are rising not falling.

A risk/reward ranking of the 10 major US investment grade corporate bond sectors.

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for March 2024.

In this Strategy Insight, we take a comparative look at two of the largest spread product sectors in Europe – Italian government bonds and investment grade corporates. We make the case for favoring Italy over investment grade in the event of a downturn in European economic sentiment.

We rank the US spread sectors in terms of risk versus reward.

Easier financial conditions, rising home prices, rebounding consumer sentiment, and a stabilization in manufacturing activity all augur well for near-term US growth prospects. An unsustainably low savings rate is a key risk to the US economic outlook. Our revised forecast is centered on a recession starting in late 2024 or early 2025.