Corporate

The easing bias remains, but not all central banks are equal. This Central Bank Monitor update reveals who is ready to cut more and who is still pretending not to.

Trump’s tariff shock will push Europe into recession — but it’s also triggering a powerful integration response. In this report, we lay out the tactical case for staying defensive and the structural case for going long European assets when the dust settles.

ポストCOVIDの景気拡大を支えた景気刺激策は5年を経て勢いを失い始め、経済は自然に発生する景気後退の方向に向かっていました。DOGEと多方面にわたる貿易戦争がそのタイムテーブルを前倒しした今、我々は改めてリスクオフの推奨を表明します。

Europe’s resilience to global liquidity deterioration isn’t a fluke—it signals a structural shift. Our latest report explains why the decline in precautionary money demand marks the end of Europe’s liquidity trap and what it means for investors.

Global risk assets are engulfed in a wave of euphoria, which is pulling Europe higher along the way. However, risks still abound. How should investors adjust their allocation to Europe under these highly uncertain conditions?
 

Banks have had an amazing run, and while such strong performance is unlikely to repeat, there is still oomph left in the trade thanks to a more favorable regulatory environment, stronger demand for loans, a steeper yield curve, and a strong pipeline of capital market activity. Key risks are further tightening of monetary policy and an increase in bad loans. We reiterate our overweight on Capital Markets, Diversified Banks, and Regional Banks.