Australia
Preliminary estimates suggest that with the exception of the UK (see Country Focus), manufacturing activity remains lackluster in DM economies. Manufacturing declined at a slower pace in Japan and Australia but the contractions unexpectedly accelerated in the…
The RBA kept its cash rate unchanged at 4.35% in August, in line with expectations. However, it lifted its trimmed-mean inflation forecast to 3.5% y/y in Q4 2024 and to 2.9% by Q4 2025 (up from 3.4% and 2.8% in its May forecast, respectively). Inflation…
The Australian CPI release for Q2 came in broadly within expectations. Headline CPI reaccelerated to 3.8%y/y from 3.6%y/y the previous quarter. Some of the narrower measures of inflation — trimmed-mean and weighted median CPI — came in below market…
We have high conviction that continued labor market softening will tip the US economy into a recession by year-end or early next year. It will reverberate to the rest of the world given that the US has been the main driver of global demand in this cycle.…
Concerns about the global economy have shifted from sticky inflation to faltering growth. Tight monetary policy is finally starting to bite. We suggest increasing portfolio defensiveness.
Australia’s inflation for May was released on Tuesday. Annual headline CPI increased from 3.6% in April to 4%, outpacing expectations of 3.8%. Trimmed-mean inflation also increased from 4.1% to 4.4%. Individual components diverged. Food and non-alcoholic…
The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its cash rate at 4.35% at its policy meeting on Tuesday, in line with market expectations. Australia’s monthly measure of headline inflation came in at 3.6% in April, still considerably above the midpoint of the RBA’s 2-3%…
In light of this week’s RBA decision to keep policy on hold, we look at the best possible trades in fixed income markets. In our view, inflation-linked bonds, relative to nominals remain a good bet.
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, aggressive fiscal stimulus and labor market flexibility contributed to the relative strength of the US consumer. However, adverse region-specific effects also played a role. Most notably, the…
