財務
米国債からトークン化まで、ステーブルコインはグローバル金融において最も破壊的な力の一つとなりつつあり、利回りを圧縮し、ドルの浸透を深め、暗号市場内のバランスを変える力を持っています。BCAの最新の洞察を通じて、その影響の拡大を探ります。
マクロ経済の逆風にもかかわらず、OBBBAは産業株、金融株、および一般消費財株のエクイティセクターを明確に支持しています。これらのセクターにおける十分に構築された、ファクターを意識したバスケットは、財政主導の不確実な環境においてアウトパフォームする良いポジションにあります。
Europe’s resilience to global liquidity deterioration isn’t a fluke—it signals a structural shift. Our latest report explains why the decline in precautionary money demand marks the end of Europe’s liquidity trap and what it means for investors.
This week, our three screeners cover equity plays in European Banks, US Financials, And US Stocks that are “Grave Diggers”.
Eurozone banks have quietly outpaced the Magnificent 7—can they keep winning? With strong balance sheets, rising profitability, and structural tailwinds, European lenders still offer value despite short-term risks. Meanwhile, German equities continue to defy expectations, but is a near-term pullback on the horizon?
Markets and forecasters anticipate a “Golden Age” for Trump’s America, with US growth expectations soaring while the rest of the world lags. However, this extreme optimism means that there is a lot of room for disappointment. Cooling income growth, weak housing and less deficit spending than expected will result in US growth underperforming expectations. Maintain a modest underweight to equities and modest overweight to fixed income. US markets have become more expensive relative to the rest of the world even as quality differentials have stabilized. Prepare to downgrade US equities to underweight and to upgrade Euro Area and China to overweight. We will wait to pull the trigger until we have more clarity on trade policy and when the dollar's momentum turns negative.
Banks have had an amazing run, and while such strong performance is unlikely to repeat, there is still oomph left in the trade thanks to a more favorable regulatory environment, stronger demand for loans, a steeper yield curve, and a strong pipeline of capital market activity. Key risks are further tightening of monetary policy and an increase in bad loans. We reiterate our overweight on Capital Markets, Diversified Banks, and Regional Banks.
In this first presentation of 2025, we start with an overview of the 2025 outlook webcast polls, and a brief post-mortem of the 2024 market performance. Then, we shift gears and examine what is behind the recent surge in bond yields and its implications for equities. We also review market technicals and positioning and conclude with a list of trades to prepare our portfolio for continued moves in yields.