経済

Germany’s IFO survey is sending a warning. The Business Climate Index unexpectedly fell for the second month in a row in January. Importantly, increased pessimism about the current situation and the outlook are driving this deterioration in sentiment among…

2 年 2 年間 ago

GeoMacro

The Primary Election Is Over

The US primary election is effectively over. The Biden-Trump rematch – our base case since 2022 – is all but set in stone. Only a health issue or freak incident could change that now.

2 年 2 年間 ago

GeoMacro

Five Black Swans For 2024

Middle East conflict, extreme US policy uncertainty, Chinese economic slowdown, US-Russian proxy war, and Asian military conflicts do not create a stable investment backdrop for 2024. Our top five “black swan” risks may be highly improbable, but they stem from these underlying trends.

2 年 2 年間 ago

China

Essentials

US Flash PMIs Contradict Signal From Regional Fed Surveys

Flash PMIs sent a generally positive update on economic activity across major DM economies in January – particularly in the case of manufacturing. In the US, the composite index rose to a 7-month high of 52.3, beating expectations it would remain broadly…

2 年 2 年間 ago

Essentials

China's RRR Cut Is Not Enough

Chinese policymakers have ramped up their efforts to support the economy and financial markets over the past few days. On Wednesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced that on February 5 it will cut the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage…

2 年 2 年間 ago

Essentials

The Greenback Is Enjoying A Good Start To The Year

The US dollar has started the year on a strong note with the DXY gaining 2.6% since it bottomed on December 27. Multiple forces are behind this appreciation. Investors have been scaling back their expectations of Fed rate hikes this year. A March rate cut is…

2 年 2 年間 ago

Essentials

Bank of Canada: Inching Towards Easier Policy

The Bank of Canada (BoC) kept rates steady at yesterday’s monetary policy meeting, leaving its policy rate at 5%. The central bank presented updated economic projections in a new Monetary Policy Report (MPR), which were little changed from the last MPR in…

2 年 2 年間 ago

Essentials

China's PSL Relaunch: A Game Changer?

According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, the current Pledged Supplementary Lending (PSL) program will provide much less support to the housing market and construction activity than the 2015-2018 program. China’s central bank…

2 年 2 年間 ago

CoreMacro

China: Challenges Tackling Deflation

There is no easy way for China to forestall deflation. Provided policymakers are still reluctant to unleash large-size stimulus, more economic disappointments are likely in the coming months, and Chinese stocks will continue to sell off. The yuan is at risk of further depreciation versus the US dollar.

2 年 2 年間 ago

China

Essentials

A Red Flag From Global Cyclical Assets

The S&P 500 notched a fresh record high on Tuesday for the third session in a row, bringing its year-to-date gains to 2.0%. Yet as we highlighted in a recent Insight, the lack of a broad-based rally across all S&P 500 sectors raises some concerns…

2 年 2 年間 ago

経済

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