経済成長
BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service’s revised forecast is centered on a recession starting in late 2024 or early 2025. The strong pace of US growth has continued into early 2024. Preliminary estimates from the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model…
Over the past few months we have been highlighting that there are some budding signs of a recovery in global manufacturing activity. Most notably, the new orders-to-inventories ratio of Sweden’s manufacturing PMI has been rebounding. To the extent that Sweden…
Thursday’s Chinese CPI and PPI release for January indicates that deflationary pressures continue to dominate the domestic economy. On the consumer side, prices registering the fastest pace of annual decline in 15 years. The CPI’s 0.8% y/y decrease is more…
According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service, after falling 80% over the past year, lithium prices will continue to trade lower. Lithium is critical for green technology and defense equipment, given lithium-ion batteries’ high power…
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, Chilean bank stocks offer great value and are poised to outperform the EM equity benchmark. Chilean bank share prices are well-positioned to outperform due to the domestic economic recovery and…
Banks were thrust back in the spotlight’s unflattering glare last week when mid-cap regional New York Community Bank shocked analysts and shareholders with an enormous credit loss. According to BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service, NYCB is sui…
German factory orders delivered a positive surprise on Tuesday, unexpectedly increasing on both a monthly and annual basis. The 8.9% m/m increase in December came in well above consensus estimates of a 0.2% m/m decline. This translated to a 2.7% y/y rise,…
Although our base case remains that a continuation of the disinflation process will allow policymakers to pivot to rate cuts this year, we continue to monitor risks to this outlook. On this front, some key indicators have recently moved in the wrong…
Indonesia will not revert to dictatorship. Yet the guardrails against authoritarianism are also constraining the actions of the next government in tackling near term domestic and regional challenges. For long-term positioning, use potential selloff from a “dictatorship scare” to build position as structural outlook for Indonesia is positive due to the China-West divorce and the global energy transition.
The US Federal Reserve Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) continues to show the impact of the Fed’s tightening cycle. Banks were still tightening lending standards for commercial and industrial (C&I), commercial real estate (CRE), home equity…