消費者

The latest round of earnings calls from the systemically important banks suggested that the expansion is still intact. Households are still flush and still spending and consumer and business delinquencies remain remarkably low.

The S&P 500 reached our 4,500 mid-year target last week, but the bears have yet to capitulate and stocks could melt up so we are placing a trailing stop on our tactical overweight instead of downgrading equities outright.

Falling inflation enables central banks to pause rate hikes, which is good news. But time goes on. Restrictive monetary policy, Chinese debt-deflation, energy supply shocks, US and global policy uncertainty, and extreme geopolitical risks will undermine hopes of a soft landing and beautiful disinflation.