景気循環
Last Friday’s blockbuster US employment report is among the recent data releases that have focused investors’ attention on the possibility that resilient economic conditions will reduce the magnitude of Fed easing this year. Markets are now priced for roughly…
Thursday’s Chinese CPI and PPI release for January indicates that deflationary pressures continue to dominate the domestic economy. On the consumer side, prices registering the fastest pace of annual decline in 15 years. The CPI’s 0.8% y/y decrease is more…
After having surged in the second half of 2021 and early 2022, the Atlanta Fed’s Wage Growth Tracker peaked in mid-2022 and has since been on a general downtrend. The latest reading of 5.0% in January is a continuation of this process, marking the lowest pace…
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, Chilean bank stocks offer great value and are poised to outperform the EM equity benchmark. Chilean bank share prices are well-positioned to outperform due to the domestic economic recovery and…
Banks were thrust back in the spotlight’s unflattering glare last week when mid-cap regional New York Community Bank shocked analysts and shareholders with an enormous credit loss. According to BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service, NYCB is sui…
Although our base case remains that a continuation of the disinflation process will allow policymakers to pivot to rate cuts this year, we continue to monitor risks to this outlook. On this front, some key indicators have recently moved in the wrong…
Euro area small-cap stocks are attractively valued compared to their large-cap counterparts. They have underperformed by 20% since April 2022, but small caps’ earnings have kept pace with those of large-cap firms. Hence, valuation indicators, including…
German factory orders delivered a positive surprise on Tuesday, unexpectedly increasing on both a monthly and annual basis. The 8.9% m/m increase in December came in well above consensus estimates of a 0.2% m/m decline. This translated to a 2.7% y/y rise,…
As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia kept the policy rate unchanged at 4.35% on Tuesday. The updated economic forecasts show a downward revision to the growth outlook for this year versus the previous round of projections released in November. The…
BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service upgrades Swedish government bonds to neutral from underweight within European fixed-income portfolios. The Riksbank kept its policy rate steady at 4% last week. Governor Erik Thedéen and the Riksbank…