新興市場

A Primer On China’s Local Government Debt

特別レポート

Government financing vehicles (LGFVs) are a key component of China’s credit system. LGFV bonds make up a 40% share of the onshore corporate bond market, and loans to LGFVs make up 20% of total loans. LGFV debt-servicing capacity is very weak. What are the ramifications of all of these for Chinese economic growth and financial markets?

3 年 3 年間 ago

China

Essentials

Tracking China’s Property Market

According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, China’s property market indicators show signs of stabilization, and further mild improvement in the coming months is likely. However, a strong recovery is not in sight. Housing completion in…

3 年 3 年間 ago

FICC

Fiscal Dominance Risk Pushes Gold Target To $2,200/oz

We are increasing our gold price target to $2,200/oz, given the increasing risk of fiscal dominance in the US, rising geopolitical risk, the return of trading blocs and currency debasement risk. These risks also will increase economic uncertainty, which also will be bullish for gold.

3 年 3 年間 ago

Commodities

Essentials

… Despite China’s Recovering Economy

China’s economic data sent a positive signal about the domestic recovery following the dismantling of pandemic restrictions. GDP growth accelerated from 2.9% y/y in Q4 2022 to 4.5% y/y in Q1 2023, marking the fastest pace in a year and beating expectations…

3 年 3 年間 ago

Essentials

Singapore’s NODX Rebuts China’s Export Rebound

In a recent Insight we highlighted that Chinese exports unexpectedly rebounded in March. To the extent that Chinese export growth suggests that global demand for manufactured goods is recovering, it poses a risk to our view that the global trade downturn will…

3 年 3 年間 ago

Essentials

EM Relative Equity Performance And The US Dollar: For How Long Can They Decouple?

Typically, emerging market equities outperform when the US dollar is soft. But that has not been the case in the past month. Although the broad trade weighted US dollar has relapsed, EM stocks have continued underperforming their developed market peers. Will…

3 年 3 年間 ago

Essentials

G7 Diplomats In Japan (Part 2)

The reason why the EU will try to balance economic ties with China along with defense ties with the US for as long as possible is not strictly economic. Europe and the US are much more reliant on China than Taiwan for trade, but that has not prevented the US…

3 年 3 年間 ago

Essentials

Chinese Natgas Demand: Recovery Ahead

Global natural gas prices have collapsed over the past few months. Prices at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility dropped by 88% since August. According to our China Investment strategists, lower prices will attract Chinese demand for LNG following a contraction…

3 年 3 年間 ago

Essentials

Rebounding Chinese Exports: Signal Or Noise?

Chinese trade data delivered a strong positive surprise on Thursday. Exports jumped by 14.8% y/y in USD terms in March following five consecutive months of contraction and beating expectations of a 7.1% y/y decline. In particular, sales to ASEAN soared by…

3 年 3 年間 ago

CoreMacro

The Market Narratives We Disagree With

There are several widespread market narratives regarding US inflation, the Fed’s policy, global manufacturing/trade and China’s recovery that we disagree with. In this report, we explain our reasoning and where it puts us in terms of investment strategies.

3 年 3 年間 ago

Emerging Markets

新興市場

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