新興市場
Taiwan's opposition Democratic Progressive Party is poised to win the presidency and possibly the legislature in elections January 16. The result will be icier cross-strait relations in the coming years that will add a geopolitical headwind to Taiwanese assets, even as it struggles to cope with a low-growth world. Taiwan still has advantages over other emerging markets, but its outlook is darkening.
There are not many examples of a genuine bear market in EM stocks driven by domestic fundamentals that we can examine to illustrate the impact on G7 markets. The 1997-98 Asian/EM crises is probably the only episode that approximates the current dynamics to a…

