新興市場
Singapore is a small open economy sensitive to global trade dynamics. Its non-oil exports (NODX) are thus a good bellwether for global growth conditions. They rebounded sharply in July from a previous contraction, largely exceeding expectations. Notably,…
According to BCA Research’s GeoMacro Strategy service, while the idea that Donald Trump would allow China to build factories in the US does not mesh with the contemporary media narrative, it would fit the historical track record. The last time that the US had…
China’s economic malaise extended through the month of July. The contraction in property investment worsened (-10.2% YTD y/y) and disappointed expectations of a slower pace of decline. Residential property sales remained dismal (-25.9% YTD y/y). Industrial…
"There's no supply chain in the world that's more critical to us than China." — Tim Cook, CEO of Apple, March 2024 According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy and Emerging Market Strategy services, while high-profile multinational companies…
The current Fed easing cycle will likely be a “buy the rumor, sell the news” phenomenon. The basis is our expectation that the US economy is heading into a rough landing. The primary driver of EM currencies is not US interest rates but the global manufacturing cycle.
多国籍企業はサプライチェーンを中国以外へ拡大しようとしているが、移転プロセスは予想より遅れている。しかし今後数年で、地政学的緊張、中国のビジネス環境の変化、そして中国の生産者からの競争激化が、多国籍企業の中国からの撤退を加速させる可能性がある。
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, US policy will have an impact on China’s willingness to adopt a preemptively hawkish foreign policy. But the US is in the middle of a chaotic election that marks the climax of a historic populist…
Subdued demand for credit among Chinese private-sector businesses and households persisted through July. Aggregate financing missed expectations, growing CNY 0.8bn to CNY 18.9bn in July on a YTD basis. New loans grew CNY 0.2bn to CNY 13.5bn, below the CNY…
Indonesian stocks have sold off sharply and underperformed their EM and emerging Asian peers – both in local currency and in common currency terms – despite the nation’s 5.1% real GDP growth rate (the highest rate among G-20 countries, second only to India).…
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, Trump’s brand, legacy, and populist movement are based on the popular demand for a more hawkish US policy on trade and immigration. China has been the chief target. Investors have every reason to plan…